2019 #4 Prospect: Ryan Mountcastle - LF/1B

[Tony-OH]

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/06/ryan-mountcastle-lf-1b/

How does an even better Trey Mancini sound?

[HowAboutThat]

A better Trey Mancini sounds great, but is that enough to put him  at #4? I had him behind Baumann because Baumann offers potential that is more difficult to find( but I’ll certainly defer to you guys)

[interloper]

It sounds very good to me, assuming he can play a position as adequately as Mancini plays 1B, where I still think Mancini could be very good if given a full season of reps over there. 

I expect that position will be LF at the expense of Stewart, who is interesting but less of an impact bat with less of an arm. I like Santander in RF for now until the arrival of Diaz, if that happens. A Davis release would help find the room for all of these guys and we'll just have to wait and see on that. 

I know folks can take or leave Mancini sometimes on the board, but a lineup with the following guys in 2021 is starting to look pretty competitive:

Mancini
Mountcastle
Santander/Stewart
Hays
Rutschman
Diaz? 

Supplement that with some half-decent pitching and I think you have at least a .500 squad with the potential for more. Middle Infield is the biggest hole, other than obviously SP. 
 

[weams]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

A better Trey Mancini sounds great, but is that enough to put him  at #4? I had him behind Baumann because Baumann offers potential that is more difficult to find( but I’ll certainly defer to you guys)

Yes. It is. I like Baumann lots, but he's down the list some from my belief. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm still not thrilled about Mountcastle.  That said, I understand why some are and the increased walk rate he's shown towards the end of last year gives me some hope.  Also, if he's one guy in a lineup that doesn't have a patient approach/on base skills, that's not such a huge deal.  It's a lineup full of those guys that's annoying.

At this point, I'd just like to say I'm really pleased with the type of talent we've got at the top of the list.  Too many times over the years I feel like we've been trying to talk ourselves into guys that we probably - if we're being truthful with ourselves - know won't pan out or don't have a high ceiling and wouldn't be in the Top 5 ranking of a Top 10 ranked team. 

With AR, Gray-Rod, Hall, and even Mountcastle I feel like we've got 4 guys that any franchise would appreciate, even the top ranked systems.  

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm still not thrilled about Mountcastle.  That said, I understand why some are and the increased walk rate he's shown towards the end of last year gives me some hope.  Also, if he's one guy in a lineup that doesn't have a patient approach/on base skills, that's not such a huge deal.  It's a lineup full of those guys that's annoying.

At this point, I'd just like to say I'm really pleased with the type of talent we've got at the top of the list.  Too many times over the years I feel like we've been trying to talk ourselves into guys that we probably - if we're being truthful with ourselves - know won't pan out or don't have a high ceiling and wouldn't be in the Top 5 ranking of a Top 10 ranked team. 

With AR, Gray-Rod, Hall, and even Mountcastle I feel like we've got 4 guys that any franchise would appreciate, even the top ranked systems.  

Definitely. And AR really helps the whole top look much better. If it's just Gray Rod up there it feels like Bundy or Gausman all over again. It's nice to have someone push everyone down a slot. And whoever we pick next is going to be be a top 5 guy as well. 

[weams]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm still not thrilled about Mountcastle.  That said, I understand why some are and the increased walk rate he's shown towards the end of last year gives me some hope.  Also, if he's one guy in a lineup that doesn't have a patient approach/on base skills, that's not such a huge deal.  It's a lineup full of those guys that's annoying.

At this point, I'd just like to say I'm really pleased with the type of talent we've got at the top of the list.  Too many times over the years I feel like we've been trying to talk ourselves into guys that we probably - if we're being truthful with ourselves - know won't pan out or don't have a high ceiling and wouldn't be in the Top 5 ranking of a Top 10 ranked team. 

With AR, Gray-Rod, Hall, and even Mountcastle I feel like we've got 4 guys that any franchise would appreciate, even the top ranked systems.  

You are so gonna turn around on Mountcastle. He'll rake.  Nelly Cruz doesn't really play outfield. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

You are so gonna turn around on Mountcastle. He'll rake.  Nelly Cruz doesn't really play outfield. 

Hoping to be impressed by Mountcastle and will be happy to sing his praises.  

[Frobby]

Very nice report on Mountcastle.   I’m really looking forward to seeing him this year.    “Better version of Mancini” sounds good to me!    I’m a big fan of Trey’s bat and approach at the plate.    The more like him, the merrier, at least when we’re batting.   

[Just Regular]

Excited to have him and Mancini together in the lineup soon.  I think I am hoping on the LF/1B aspect - they just pick one and evaluate maybe monthly, or even just once at the All-Star break.   Both guys position is hitter and I feel like some of both each week would be counterproductive.

[HowAboutThat]

I mentioned this in the trade bait post but seems better posted here. I doubt that Trey has much trade value, but I’m pretty sure Elias will wait till the magical service time date comes, and then he will move Mancini for whatever so as to make room for Mountcastle. If he’s a better version of Trey, as well as younger and cheaper, we can live with a weak throwing arm.

Sadly interesting that discussing Trey/Mc ignores Davis. Ridiculous to get rid of Trey while Davis still occupies a spot.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm still not thrilled about Mountcastle.  That said, I understand why some are and the increased walk rate he's shown towards the end of last year gives me some hope.  Also, if he's one guy in a lineup that doesn't have a patient approach/on base skills, that's not such a huge deal.  It's a lineup full of those guys that's annoying.

At this point, I'd just like to say I'm really pleased with the type of talent we've got at the top of the list.  Too many times over the years I feel like we've been trying to talk ourselves into guys that we probably - if we're being truthful with ourselves - know won't pan out or don't have a high ceiling and wouldn't be in the Top 5 ranking of a Top 10 ranked team. 

With AR, Gray-Rod, Hall, and even Mountcastle I feel like we've got 4 guys that any franchise would appreciate, even the top ranked systems.  

In my mind, if I'm grouping guys into talent level and ability to be impact players, the top four are in a group by themselves. It's not that the next guys don't have potential, but from here on out we get to guys with solid every day regulars as ceilings (nothing wrong with that) or middle-back to the rotation guys. I do think this top-4 may be the best four the Orioles have had since I've been doing these lists. 

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Philip said:

I mentioned this in the trade bait post but seems better posted here. I doubt that Trey has much trade value, but I’m pretty sure Elias will wait till the magical service time date comes, and then he will move Mancini for whatever so as to make room for Mountcastle. If he’s a better version of Trey, as well as younger and cheaper, we can live with a weak throwing arm.

Sadly interesting that discussing Trey/Mc ignores Davis. Ridiculous to get rid of Trey while Davis still occupies a spot.

I think Trey probably has decent trade value now, and will have lots of trade value if he puts up numbers similar to this year’s in the first half of 2020.   In my mind, we wouldn’t be trading Trey to “get rid of” him, but to bring back some valuable assets that complement the younger talent now coming up through our system.    

[mdbdotcom]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

In my mind, if I'm grouping guys into talent level and ability to be impact players, the top four are in a group by themselves. It's not the next guys don't have potential, but from here on out we get to guys with solid every day regulars as ceilings (nothing wrong with that) or middle-back to the rotation guys. I do think this top-4 may be the best four the Orioles have had since I've been doing these lists. 

I'm hoping Diaz puts it together and makes it a Top 5. Probably a long shot, but we'll just have to wait and see.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hoping to be impressed by Mountcastle and will be happy to sing his praises.  

I understand the concerns by some on Mountcastle's approach, and honestly, it's true that he gets himself in bad counts too often because he doesn't have a pitch he doesn't think he can't hit hard. He just needs more maturity at the plate and have the patience to let pitches go that might be hittable, but not be the pitch he can do the most damage on.

Mountcastle has tremendous plate coverage and is similar to Vlad Guerrero in that he'll hit pitches that he shouldn't hit, but end up barreling them. From the reports I got on him, he's an intelligent guy (may not come across that way to the media because he's not comfortable with the media) and he showed some ability late in his AAA season of being able to show that patience more.

I love the fact that he hits for a high average and will take a .300 hitter who walks 30 times a year over a .275 hitter who walks 50 times a year.

The game is changing and we're going to start seeing more and more players with bigger BB/K splits, but if they can hit for average that offsets the lack of walks for the OBP. 

I looked up guys that flamed out who were similar prospects (some even more highly nationally ranked) with similar K-BB rations, and in every case Mountcastle hit for a much higher average then they did. 

Honestly, I think there is little doubt he's going to end up a quality major league hitter, but his ability to continue to make adjustments and have a better plan with experience will determine just how impactful he will be.