Trade Bait 2020

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, John Welch said:

Sorry, I was just joking.

As amusing as that would be, the players union would go nuts and do everything in their power to prevent it even being discussed. 

You can be sure the CBA does not allow it.   

[wildbillhiccup]

5 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Heading into the offseason, the O's have a few player assets with 3 or more years of MLB service time that Elias is keeping on the roster and evaluating because he sees value or potential value as a trade asset.  We haven't really seen how Elias operates in the trade market yet, and I'm hoping he is able to make a few strong trades this offseason.  The Cashner trade was like a sneak preview, but I hope he is able to make a plethora of trades this year that could bring back some solid position player prospects.  Below is a list of potential trade assets in 2020.  Their values are all different

Strong Trade Chips

Trey Mancini (27) - 3.015 Service Years -.899 OPS this year has probably having Elias gamble on Trey's peak value.

Jonathan Villar (28) - 5.113 Service Years - Arbitration number hurts stock a bit, but this is probably Villar's peak value.

Hanser Alberto (27) - 3.085 Service Years - Versatile, would make a good NL player, and cheap.  I love Hanser, but this could be his peak value as well.

Agree with shopping Mancini and Alberto. I don't think it's worth it's worth picking up Villar's contract. 

Trade Value, But Could Improve Stock With Strong Start to 2020

Dylan Bundy (27) - 4.026 Service Years - Less than $6 Million for a 2 WAR pitcher. A good start to 2020 would increase is value enough to bring back a real prospect.

Mychal Givens (29) - 4.069 Service Years -  If he can stop giving up homeruns in 2020, his stock could soar, especially with the K rates.

Miguel Castro (25) - 3.079 Service Years - No rush to trade him. K rates on the rise.  Still only as old as Hunter Harvey. Could break out a bit this season.

If there's a marketing for Bundy, come the trade deadline, then we should look into trading him. I'm not sure Castro and Givens would bring a significant enough return to consider trading them. 

No Value As Of Now, But Could Rebuild Stock in 2020

Alex Cobb (32) - 2 Years and $29 Million Left. If he can return to form, this contract isn't that scary.

Richard Bleier (32) - 3.074 Service Years - Still three years of control, a lefty, and this will be year two after returning from his surgery.  Could rebuild stock enough to get a C level prospect.

Chris Davis (33) - Only Three Years and 60+ Million left on contract.  Never know. He he could hit .210 with 25 HRs and a .700 OPS, essentially get back to a 0 WAR player, we might be able to trade him for a bad contract. Trade three years of Davis for four years of Miguel Cabrera.  The chase for 500 HRs and 3000 hits might fill some seats?

I'm almost ready to put Cobb in the Davis category. It was another terrible signing and I think the contract just needs to run it's course so they can cut their losses and move on. I don't view Cobb or Davis as being even remotely tradeable.

 

 

My notes are in italics, but the short version is we already played 95% of our trade chips (for better or worse) in 2018. Everyone on the current roster should be available for a price because realistically none of them will be significant contributors in 3-4 years when the team is hopefully starting to contend again. 

[mdbdotcom]

3 hours ago, UpstateNYfan said:

I am not opposed to any trade that may bring a return that might help in the future. However, IMO, a $6 million contract is not a reason in itself to "do it now". A team with a budget of less than $60 million (with 25% or so of that on one useless contract) can certainly "splurge" $6 mill on Mancini. A team needs to have some watchable players even in a 95-105 loss season.

Okay, don't even consider the money. Just do it to bring in a player who will likely be more valuable to the rebuild.

[Redskins Rick]

I dont look for too much trade activity for FA signings this off season.

The current prospects need more seasoning, and add another good draft and decent international players, then maybe next season, we can expect more of a reason, to try and bring in one or two good ones.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Trade Trey for an infield prospect. No sense paying him close to $6 million on a team that will lose 100 games. By the time we're ready to content he'll be either too old or too expensive. Get what you can now.

As an aside, I do not think Trey will get close to $6 mm, despite MLBTR’s $5.7 mm estimate.     Heck, Manny only got $5 mm in Arb 1, the year after he finished 4th in the MVP voting.     

[mdbdotcom]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As an aside, I do not think Trey will get close to $6 mm, despite MLBTR’s $5.7 mm estimate.     Heck, Manny only got $5 mm in Arb 1, the year after he finished 4th in the MVP voting.     

If he gets less that will make him even more valuable to a team looking for affordable right-handed power under team control for a few more years. Even the Rays might be interested, and they have a lot of MI prospects.

[NCRaven]

9 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

If he gets less that will make him even more valuable to a team looking for affordable right-handed power under team control for a few more years. Even the Rays might be interested, and they have a lot of MI prospects.

The Twins could be a match, as well.

[Redskins Rick]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As an aside, I do not think Trey will get close to $6 mm, despite MLBTR’s $5.7 mm estimate.     Heck, Manny only got $5 mm in Arb 1, the year after he finished 4th in the MVP voting.     

And didnt Manny post up a 7.1 WAR for that same season, which is why he came in 4th?

 

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

And didnt Manny post up a 7.1 WAR for that same season, which is why he came in 4th?

 

Well, WAR doesn’t always drive Arb salaries.    Offense definitely gets weighted more heavily.    But there’s nobody alive who thinks Trey is as good as Manny.   I’ve been looking around at other players more comparable to Mancini and I don’t see any way he’s getting north of $5 mm, despite his very good offensive season.    He could get a good bit less than $5 mm.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, WAR doesn’t always drive Arb salaries.    Offense definitely gets weighted more heavily.    But there’s nobody alive who thinks Trey is as good as Manny.   I’ve been looking around at other players more comparable to Mancini and I don’t see any way he’s getting north of $5 mm, despite his very good offensive season.    He could get a good bit less than $5 mm.

There is now a component, but the Boras books and counting stats appear to be the drivers.  Also comps. 

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, weams said:

There is now a component, but the Boras books and counting stats appear to be the drivers.  Also comps. 

Here’s a comp: George Springer was paid $3.9 mm in Arb 1 after a 125 OPS+, 4.7 rWAR season.   To that point, he’d been worth 11 WAR in his career, 126 career OPS+.    Mancini had a 135 OPS+ and 3.3 rWAR this year, 119 OPS+ and 5.9  WAR for his career.   Other players I looked at: JD Martinez, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Nick Castellanos.   None is a perfect comp for Mancini, but only Rizzo got $5 mm in Arb 1, and that was in a multiyear deal that also paid him $5 mm in Arb 2.    

[weams]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a comp: George Springer was paid $3.9 mm in Arb 1 after a 125 OPS+, 4.7 rWAR season.   To that point, he’d been worth 11 WAR in his career, 126 career OPS+.    Mancini had a 135 OPS+ and 3.3 rWAR this year, 119 OPS+ and 5.9  WAR for his career.   Other players I looked at: JD Martinez, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Nick Castellanos.   None is a perfect comp for Mancini, but only Rizzo got $5 mm in Arb 1, and that was in a multiyear deal that also paid him $5 mm in Arb 2.    

As we both noted, WAR is not the major component. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, weams said:

As we both noted, WAR is not the major component. 

That’s why I also cited OPS+.   I do think there are arguments for Mancini to get more than Springer did.    I don’t see how he gets $1.1 mm+ more.    We’ll see.  

[ScGO's]

On 11/6/2019 at 11:46 AM, weams said:

I was right with you until this point.

I don't see it happening with Davis, but if Cobb can become serviceable, I could see him being traded, if not this year, maybe next.  We might have to eat some of the contract though.  If Bleier can get back to his former self, he too could be a chip.  If Elias doesn't see that possibility, there is no need to keep Bleier on the 40 man in my opinion.

[mdbdotcom]

How about we sell Cavis's contract to a Japanese or Korean team, pay half his contract and let them return him after three months if they aren't satisfied. Davis would have to agree, but maybe he would, as it might give him a chance to be a star again.

Even if we had to pay 3/4 of the contract, at least he wouldn't be on the roster and we wouldn't have to look at him anymore.