Trade Bait 2020

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

How about we sell Cavis's contract to a Japanese or Korean team, pay half his contract and let them return him after three months if they aren't satisfied. Davis would have to agree, but maybe he would, as it might give him a chance to be a star again.

Even if we had to pay 3/4 of the contract, at least he wouldn't be on the roster and we wouldn't have to look at him anymore.

The hard part about selling is getting someone to buy.

We need PT Barnum.

[jgjbanker]

The NY Post had an interesting article about the Yankees trading for Villar/Givens. Would be interesting to see what ME could get from the Yanks in return if they truly are interested. 

[Greg Pappas]

7 minutes ago, jgjbanker said:

The NY Post had an interesting article about the Yankees trading for Villar/Givens. Would be interesting to see what ME could get from the Yanks in return if they truly are interested. 

Link: https://nypost.com/2019/11/09/francisco-lindor-isnt-yankees-only-option-to-fill-lefty-hitting-hole/

Quote

Jonathan Villar: Orioles GM Mike Elias has indicated finances will be a big deal when it comes to their arbitration eligibles, and Villar is looking at $10 million-ish for his 2020 walk year. Villar is versatile, including playing shortstop at about league average defense, so he could share that position with Gleyber Torres while both also move around elsewhere. Villar is durable (162 games last year). He is a switch-hitter who has added power (particularly from the left side). And he can run (31 steals).

One other item: The Yanks tried hard at the trade deadline on Toronto’s Ken Giles and Baltimore’s Mychal Givens to bolster their pen. Givens is two years from free agency. Perhaps the Yanks could unburden Baltimore of a lot of payroll by taking on Villar/Givens and filling the Orioles up with more low-cost prospects.

 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, jgjbanker said:

The NY Post had an interesting article about the Yankees trading for Villar/Givens. Would be interesting to see what ME could get from the Yanks in return if they truly are interested. 

The Yankees would be an interesting trade partner because they will be motivated to move some of their Rule 5 eligible players since they are in a pretty big roster crunch. A team willing to take Rule 5 eligible players in return, may be able to get more than fair value.

The Yankees have 4 open 40 man spots currently and these prospects are eligible

Deivi Garcia

Estevan Florial

Nick Nelson

Miguel Yajure

Luis Gil

Luis Medina

In addition to those, there are at least 12 other guys of some Rule 5 interest.

While Villar won't get you Garcia, all the other guys are possible returns. Florial is probably a half grade above what Villar at 10.4M is worth in surplus value. But Florial has struggled and maybe he's on the discount rack. Nelson is a near ready #5 type. Yajure is a young command and feel guy, with average stuff, maybe #4/5 but further away. Gil and Medina are huge stuff guys who have some command issues. Risk reward types. 

So something like Nelson and one of the Yankees DSL names of interest would make sense. Nelson supplants the upper level SP depth along with Kremer, Akin, and Zimmermann. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

The Yankees would be an interesting trade partner because they will be motivated to move some of their Rule 5 eligible players since they are in a pretty big roster crunch. A team willing to take Rule 5 eligible players in return, may be able to get more than fair value.

 

Sounds like the Britton trade.  Except the part about getting more than fair value.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Sounds like the Britton trade.  Except the part about getting more than fair value.

I think they probably got fair value for Britton, his value was majorly depressed by his injury. Half a season of a guy with a diminshed fastball velocity and command due to an injury who had a 4.44 FIP and was owed 4.4M for that period. 

Off-topic, but an interesting Rule 5 name for me is Kyle Holder. A glove first shortstop who was given a 60/70 glove grade a couple years ago. The bat is really light, but he made some strides in terms of power production in 2019. He does hit RHP better than LHP, so you could protect the bat a little. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think they probably got fair value for Britton, his value was majorly depressed by his injury. Half a season of a guy with a diminshed fastball velocity and command due to an injury who had a 4.44 FIP and was owed 4.4M for that period. 

Off-topic, but an interesting Rule 5 name for me is Kyle Holder. A glove first shortstop who was given a 60/70 glove grade a couple years ago. The bat is really light, but he made some strides in terms of power production in 2019. He does hit RHP better than LHP, so you could protect the bat a little. 

Fair value < more than fair value.

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Fair value < more than fair value.

Yeah, I got what you meant, I should have made that more clear in my response. I was assessing the Britton trade more for the board's benefit than yours in particular. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, I got what you meant, I should have made that more clear in my response. I was assessing the Britton trade more for the board's benefit than yours in particular. 

It doesn't help that I've never been a Tate fan.

[Luke-OH]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It doesn't help that I've never been a Tate fan.

I've never been a Florial fan and trading for him would be a similar catching of a top prospect on their way down. I'd be fine with him as a Rule 5 selection because the risk is so low. 

[JimGinSP]

Can we achieve better value for Villar, Mancini, Bundy and or Givens by being the third team in on a Boston trade of Betts and/or Bradley?   While the Sawx are looking to shed payroll I can’t imagine they are considering any sort of MLB rebuild. 

Based on this:

https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/11/10/red-sox-at-gm-meetings-trading-mookie-betts-should-be-priority/

Sawx are in need of 1B, 2B, back end starter and relief.   We just so happen to have all those MLB options available for discussion.  The author compared the Betts trade to our trade of Manny.   Would Sawx Nation be satisfied with 5 prospects?  

Or does Chaim Bloom appease the fan base by flipping a Diaz or Kremer type prospect in part of a deal for 1 or 2 of our MLB pieces previously mentioned?

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Living here in Boston I can't imagine the Sox dealing Betts. I still think they will take other avenues to cut payroll.

I agree.  JBJ is more likely to go IMO.

[TonySoprano]

19 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Perhaps the Yanks could unburden Baltimore of a lot of payroll by taking on Villar/Givens and filling the Orioles up with more low-cost prospects.

Link: https://nypost.com/2019/11/09/francisco-lindor-isnt-yankees-only-option-to-fill-lefty-hitting-hole/

 

Unburden Baltimore?  Over 1/2 of the payroll for 2020* is Davis and Cobb.  Take them off and what's left is a payroll that makes TB say, "damn, that's really low."

*BBRef has the 2020 number currently at $70.3M.  Even if that number is in dispute, the point is the 2020 Orioles aren't overly burdened by payroll.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/baltimore-orioles-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

[Greg Pappas]

25 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Unburden Baltimore?  Over 1/2 of the payroll for 2020* is Davis and Cobb.  Take them off and what's left is a payroll that makes TB say, "damn, that's really low."

*BBRef has the 2020 number currently at $70.3M.  Even if that number is in dispute, the point is the 2020 Orioles aren't overly burdened by payroll.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/baltimore-orioles-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

I was confused for a minute by what looked like you quoting me, as I never commented. I just linked to the article, which the "unburden..." line was from. I see what you were doing now.  Regardless, I agree with your points.

[weams]

On 11/6/2019 at 9:01 AM, ScGO's said:

Heading into the offseason, the O's have a few player assets with 3 or more years of MLB service time that Elias is keeping on the roster and evaluating because he sees value or potential value as a trade asset.  We haven't really seen how Elias operates in the trade market yet, and I'm hoping he is able to make a few strong trades this offseason.  The Cashner trade was like a sneak preview, but I hope he is able to make a plethora of trades this year that could bring back some solid position player prospects.  Below is a list of potential trade assets in 2020.  Their values are all different

Strong Trade Chips

Trey Mancini (27) - 3.015 Service Years -.899 OPS this year has probably having Elias gamble on Trey's peak value.

Jonathan Villar (28) - 5.113 Service Years - Arbitration number hurts stock a bit, but this is probably Villar's peak value.

Hanser Alberto (27) - 3.085 Service Years - Versatile, would make a good NL player, and cheap.  I love Hanser, but this could be his peak value as well.

 

Trade Value, But Could Improve Stock With Strong Start to 2020

Dylan Bundy (27) - 4.026 Service Years - Less than $6 Million for a 2 WAR pitcher. A good start to 2020 would increase is value enough to bring back a real prospect.

Mychal Givens (29) - 4.069 Service Years -  If he can stop giving up homeruns in 2020, his stock could soar, especially with the K rates.

Miguel Castro (25) - 3.079 Service Years - No rush to trade him. K rates on the rise.  Still only as old as Hunter Harvey. Could break out a bit this season.

 

No Value As Of Now, But Could Rebuild Stock in 2020

Alex Cobb (32) - 2 Years and $29 Million Left. If he can return to form, this contract isn't that scary.

Richard Bleier (32) - 3.074 Service Years - Still three years of control, a lefty, and this will be year two after returning from his surgery.  Could rebuild stock enough to get a C level prospect.

Chris Davis (33) - Only Three Years and 60+ Million left on contract.  Never know. He he could hit .210 with 25 HRs and a .700 OPS, essentially get back to a 0 WAR player, we might be able to trade him for a bad contract. Trade three years of Davis for four years of Miguel Cabrera.  The chase for 500 HRs and 3000 hits might fill some seats?

 

 

 

Quote

MLB Trade Rumors

• The Yankees “tried hard” to land Orioles reliever Mychal Givens at the trade deadline, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports.  The right-hander was a popular figure on the rumor mill last July, with such clubs as the Indians, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and Nationals all reportedly showing interest in acquiring his services.  It isn’t any surprise that the Yankees were also involved given how New York is constantly looking to reinforce its already strong bullpen, and it isn’t out of the question that the Yankees could ask about Givens again this winter.  The 29-year-old is under team control for two more seasons (and projected to make $3.2MM in arbitration this winter), though Givens is coming off the worst of his five big league seasons.  Givens posted a 12.3 K/9 and 3.31 K/BB rate over 63 innings but his ERA ballooned to 4.57, due in large part to a lot of problems keeping the ball in the park (1.9 HR/9).

MLBTR

Quote

Jonathan Villar: Orioles GM Mike Elias has indicated finances will be a big deal when it comes to their arbitration eligibles, and Villar is looking at $10 million-ish for his 2020 walk year. Villar is versatile, including playing shortstop at about league average defense, so he could share that position with Gleyber Torres while both also move around elsewhere. Villar is durable (162 games last year). He is a switch-hitter who has added power (particularly from the left side). And he can run (31 steals).

Joel Sherman