Betts Saga Versus Machado Saga

[atomic]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It was relevant, in that one reason you keep him is if you think it improves your chances to re-sign the player long term.   But I’m not sure that it would in the case of Betts, who has made it clear for years that he didn’t plan to extend long term without testing FA, and at times has seemed like he wouldn’t be interested in staying in Boston even if they were competitive in free agency.   
 

As to the Harper analogy, I agree that the Sox are in a somewhat different position than the Nats.    For one thing, Betts is the better player.    For another, the Nats had two young stud outfielders just getting their feet wet and clearly ready to be good major league players at minimal cost.    It was very obvious (to me, anyway) that their money would be better spent addressing other areas.    I’m not as sure about the Sox.   It’s interesting how badly they fell off this year; I really hadn’t expected such a precipitous drop.   

And from what I have read the Red Sox's farm system is bare.   Their top Outfield prospect had a .634 OPS at AA last year.  Their next two highest rated outfield prospects were in short season A last year.   

[TonySoprano]

2 hours ago, atomic said:

Why are the Red Sox trading Betts?  Are they tanking now too?  Pretty bad situation if 3 out of 5 teams in AL East are tanking. 

The Red Sox aren't tanking, but are trying to get below the luxury tax payroll.   J.D. Martinez didn't opt-out and they need to drop about $28M in payroll.

[theocean]

17 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

The Red Sox aren't tanking, but are trying to get below the luxury tax payroll.   J.D. Martinez didn't opt-out and they need to drop about $28M in payroll.

The Sox firing Dombroski not even a year after a World Series win tells you everything you need to know. They have a bunch of money tied up in some players who are all on the wrong side of 30 and they're starting to feel the pinch.

They owe a 34-year-old David Price a bunch of money for the next three years. They owe an injury-riddled Chris Sale a bunch of money through 2025. They owe JD Martinez a ton of money through 2022. They owe Nathan Eovaldi a bunch of money. They still are paying for Rusney Castillo. They still owe Dustin Pedroia $25M.

If I were the Sox, I'd keep Mookie this year and let it ride. But, if they think they can reload their farm system and coast off the 2018 Championship until some of these contracts go away - I get it.

 

 

[theocean]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

The Nationals losing Harper didn’t hold them back from winning in 2019. The Red Sox trading Betts doesn’t eliminate them from contention in 2020. Red Sox won’t go anywhere if their pitching doesn’t improve even if Betts is on the team. 

Betts is actually really good though. Harper's name is bigger than his performance on the field.

If anything, you could say that losing Harper helped the Nationals because they could use that money for a far more valuable asset, Patrick Corbin.

[atomic]

5 minutes ago, theocean said:

The Sox firing Dombroski not even a year after a World Series win tells you everything you need to know. They have a bunch of money tied up in some players who are all on the wrong side of 30 and they're starting to feel the pinch.

They owe a 34-year-old David Price a bunch of money for the next three years. They owe an injury-riddled Chris Sale a bunch of money through 2025. They owe JD Martinez a ton of money through 2022. They owe Nathan Eovaldi a bunch of money. They still are paying for Rusney Castillo. They still owe Dustin Pedroia $25M.

If I were the Sox, I'd keep Mookie this year and let it ride. But, if they think they can reload their farm system and coast off the 2018 Championship until some of these contracts go away - I get it.

 

 

The Red Sox had 84 wins last season.  Not too far off from being a good team.  Some guys had seasons below where they regularly produce.  If they signed another pitcher.  One of the aces they might be in the division hunt.  If you get a couple of prospects for Betts you are down to say 78 win season coming back.  Long way back up from there. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, theocean said:

Betts is actually really good though. Harper's name is bigger than his performance on the field.

If anything, you could say that losing Harper helped the Nationals because they could use that money for a far more valuable asset, Patrick Corbin.

Agreed. Plus, I should have expanded my thought into what you said about the money not used on Betts will be invested elsewhere.

Also if Betts is traded the players returned from the other team might very well contribute towards winning their next pennant. It’s not a zero sum game that Betts is gone and the Red Sox can’t do anything to makeup for his departure.

 

 

 

[weams]

3 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The Orioles "chose" not to trade Machado the year before he became a free agent so that's really on them. I really think you're splitting hairs in terms of saying that it's not a close comparison. 

The Orioles had a mandate to attempt to keep their playoff window open. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

The Red Sox aren't tanking, but are trying to get below the luxury tax payroll.   J.D. Martinez didn't opt-out and they need to drop about $28M in payroll.

That is all Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, weams said:

The Orioles had a mandate to attempt to keep their playoff window open. 

I hear ya, but I don't think that absolves them from what happened. It was an organizational decision (mandate or no mandate) to not trade him earlier so that's on them. Again, I really wasn't looking to use this thread to crap on the team/ownership, but I am going to bring these things up if folks try to argue that this isn't an apples to apples comparison. All of these things were variables that the team had control over. It will be interesting to see how another organization handles things. As someone else pointed out their minor league system is almost as destitute as the Orioles system was a few years ago. The only difference is the Red Sox have MUCH deeper pockets to try and fix the problem. 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, atomic said:

The Red Sox had 84 wins last season.  Not too far off from being a good team.  Some guys had seasons below where they regularly produce.  If they signed another pitcher.  One of the aces they might be in the division hunt.  If you get a couple of prospects for Betts you are down to say 78 win season coming back.  Long way back up from there. 

It's all relative. An 82 win season for a team like the Red Sox is a failure and as someone else pointed out their farm system is completely barren. I love Mookie (as a baseball fan), but I'm having a hard time convincing myself that it makes sense for the Red Sox to sign him to a huge 8-10 year deal. A lot of his value is tied to his defense and speed and you have to imagine those both will start to decline when he hits his early 30s. Can he reinvent himself as a more a power hitting DH in his later years? Maybe, but that's a lot of coin to give someone to bank on a maybe. 

Also, just to keep this post Orioles-related, how are the early returns on the Machado contract? I'd say below average so far. Same with Harper. So the case for signing these youngish potential superstars to big long term deals seems to be waning a bit. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I hear ya, but I don't think that absolves them from what happened. It was an organizational decision (mandate or no mandate) to not trade him earlier so that's on them. Again, I really wasn't looking to use this thread to crap on the team/ownership, but I am going to bring these things up if folks try to argue that this isn't an apples to apples comparison. All of these things were variables that the team had control over. It will be interesting to see how another organization handles things. As someone else pointed out their minor league system is almost as destitute as the Orioles system was a few years ago. The only difference is the Red Sox have MUCH deeper pockets to try and fix the problem. 

So I refer to then as them. And to now as they. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, weams said:

The Orioles had a mandate to attempt to keep their playoff window open. 

They shopped him but didn’t get any offers they liked enough to move him.   

[weams]

Just now, Frobby said:

They shopped him but didn’t get any offers they liked enough to move him.   

Not during the season though. At the deadline. As they should have 

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, weams said:

Not during the season though. At the deadline. As they should have 

They shopped him in the 2017-18 offseason.    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.si.com/mlb/2017/12/14/manny-machado-trade-rumors-baltimore-orioles-offers.   Which is the equivalent of what the Red Sox would be doing now with Betts.    The Sox didn’t shop Betts at the trade deadline last season, just like we didn’t with Manny in July 2017.

[weams]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They shopped him in the 2017-18 offseason.    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.si.com/mlb/2017/12/14/manny-machado-trade-rumors-baltimore-orioles-offers.   Which is the equivalent of what the Red Sox would be doing now with Betts.    The Sox didn’t shop Betts at the trade deadline last season, just like we didn’t with Manny in July 2017.

Two mistakes. Sox were out of it too.