Rule 5 thoughts

[Luke-OH]

51 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

What do you think about Srock? High OBP leadoff type with speed? 5'9'' with little power

Schrock isn’t fast and really can only play 2B passably because of arm strength (unless he gain arm strength in 2019 because I’ve only seen 2017-2018 video of him). I’ve never been a Schrock guy.

My two utility infield Rule 5 crushes at the moment (I have like 100 more guys to watch video on) are Yonny Hernandez and Stephen Alemais 

Alemais’s defense has been compared to Andrelton Simmons, I’ve seen him and it’s legit plus MLB SS play. He’s always hit some except in 2019 when he was dealing with a shoulder injury that needed surgery. He missed most of the season but is healthy and training now, this is a plus makeup dude also.

Yonny Hernandez is a guy who in his 20/21 year old season walked more than he struck out between High a and AA. Plus bat control guy, no power, but plus runner and at least an average glove at every infield position.

Neither of these guys are going to hit enough to be regulars, but neither is Schrock and these dudes have a more desirable utility skillset.

[Roll Tide]

38 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Schrock isn’t fast and really can only play 2B passably because of arm strength (unless he gain arm strength in 2019 because I’ve only seen 2017-2018 video of him). I’ve never been a Schrock guy.

My two utility infield Rule 5 crushes at the moment (I have like 100 more guys to watch video on) are Yonny Hernandez and Stephen Alemais 

Alemais’s defense has been compared to Andrelton Simmons, I’ve seen him and it’s legit plus MLB SS play. He’s always hit some except in 2019 when he was dealing with a shoulder injury that needed surgery. He missed most of the season but is healthy and training now, this is a plus makeup dude also.

Yonny Hernandez is a guy who in his 20/21 year old season walked more than he struck out between High a and AA. Plus bat control guy, no power, but plus runner and at least an average glove at every infield position.

Neither of these guys are going to hit enough to be regulars, but neither is Schrock and these dudes have a more desirable utility skillset.

Looks like he swiped 12 this year and 10 last  and isnt caught much

[Luke-OH]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Looks like he swiped 12 this year and 10 last  and isnt caught much

Stolen bases aren’t a good indicator of speed. He’s an average runner. Villar was 2nd in the majors in SBs, 182nd in sprint speed. 

But I get your point, maybe he could steal a few in the majors, but what’s the role?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

11 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

That said, I'd like to stay away from Rule 5 arms.  They almost always suck.

You're always dreaming your Rule 5 pitcher is this:

But usually this is the result:

[Roll Tide]

26 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Stolen bases aren’t a good indicator of speed. He’s an average runner. Villar was 2nd in the majors in SBs, 182nd in sprint speed. 

But I get your point, maybe he could steal a few in the majors, but what’s the role?

 

2B ...lead off hitter. As I mentioned good OBP.

[Luke-OH]

36 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

2B ...lead off hitter. As I mentioned good OBP.

Ok, I don’t think the bat plays at 2B, but fair enough. I don’t think the OBP is sustainable in the majors.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Schrock isn’t fast and really can only play 2B passably because of arm strength (unless he gain arm strength in 2019 because I’ve only seen 2017-2018 video of him). I’ve never been a Schrock guy.

My two utility infield Rule 5 crushes at the moment (I have like 100 more guys to watch video on) are Yonny Hernandez and Stephen Alemais 

Alemais’s defense has been compared to Andrelton Simmons, I’ve seen him and it’s legit plus MLB SS play. He’s always hit some except in 2019 when he was dealing with a shoulder injury that needed surgery. He missed most of the season but is healthy and training now, this is a plus makeup dude also.

Yonny Hernandez is a guy who in his 20/21 year old season walked more than he struck out between High a and AA. Plus bat control guy, no power, but plus runner and at least an average glove at every infield position.

Neither of these guys are going to hit enough to be regulars, but neither is Schrock and these dudes have a more desirable utility skillset.

How about Jose Rojas? 7% walk rate and .900 OPS at AAA. 11 errors between 2B and 3B but did I mention .900 OPS?

[sportsfan8703]

17 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'll refrain from my yearly rant on how I hate the Rule 5.  It's been well documented.

Santander was pretty good last year, I'd put him in the nice surprise column.  And Richie Martin was solid with the glove, I thought (take your defensive metrics and shove it).  And he had a decent 2nd half with the bat, too.  

That said, I'd like to stay away from Rule 5 arms.  They almost always suck.

Keep in mind that Santander was the one player that we knew wasn’t going to be mlb ready when we drafted him. He was 21 and only in A+ in 2016. He took till 2019 for him to develop into an MLB looking player. 

Our best rule 5 selection wasn’t somebody that was expected to fill a need at the MLB level, but was a 21 year old in A ball with a lot of tools. 

I hope we go that route again with one of our picks. 

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I wasn’t arguing for any of these guys, just saying they are the top prospects as ranked by Fangraphs unprotected. I felt that was better than comparing team rankings where 3rd for the Brewers equals 17th for the Padres or 19th for the Rays.

There are obviously different strategies for targeting Rule 5 players, tools vs performance, safer role players vs reaching for potential upside. 

I agree with players that are available from different systems. That’s why I’m immediately zoned on who was left off by the top/deep systems. Like LAD, HOU, and TB. 

Juvier and Newton, are the exact type of picks a team like us should be making. Especially with a 26 man roster.

 I’d like to see us take three players and double up on SS. Take a shortstop like Alfredo Rodriguez that can handle the position defensively right now. Then take a high ceiling project like Arauz, Juvier, or Newton. Lastly, a pitcher like Sheffield. 

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I agree with players that are available from different systems. That’s why I’m immediately zoned on who was left off by the top/deep systems. Like LAD, HOU, and TB. 

Juvier and Newton, are the exact type of picks a team like us should be making. Especially with a 26 man roster.

 I’d like to see us take three players and double up on SS. Take a shortstop like Alfredo Rodriguez that can handle the position defensively right now. Then take a high ceiling project like Arauz, Juvier, or Newton. Lastly, a pitcher like Sheffield. 

So pick 2 hoping you can carry 1? Because they won't carry 3 rule 5 players.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So pick 2 hoping you can carry 1? Because they won't carry 3 rule 5 players.

Why not?   Broken record mode for me,

- 26 man roster

2017 - 90 losses

2018 - 107 losses

2019 - 102 losses

2020 - Guaranteed the Vegas O/U will be 100+ losses

We have to fill out a roster; so we need some older/low ceiling players, but given the above, Elias should be shooting for 2022+. So my theory would be,

SS 1: You take a guy that can handle SS defensively right now... like Alfredo Rodriguez(Reds)

SS 2: You take a guy with a big ceiling like Juvier or Newton. 

We literally have nothing to lose.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why not?   Broken record mode for me,

- 26 man roster

2017 - 90 losses

2018 - 107 losses

2019 - 102 losses

2020 - Guaranteed the Vegas O/U will be 100+ losses

We have to fill out a roster; so we need some older/low ceiling players, but given the above, Elias should be shooting for 2022+. So my theory would be,

SS 1: You take a guy that can handle SS defensively right now... like Alfredo Rodriguez(Reds)

SS 2: You take a guy with a big ceiling like Juvier or Newton. 

We literally have nothing to lose.

It takes away the flexibility to shuttle the extra pitchers. You know roster flexibility that they desperately need due to the poor starting pitching.

The can select 2 SS guys like you mentioned but the chance that they try to carry both is low and the chance that they actually succeed in that endeavor is less than 1%

[Roll Tide]

I will say the Rodriguez looks pretty close to ready .283/.325/.672 at AA. 57 XBH in 1203 ABs (not even 10%)

He literally has no power and probably projects as a utility guy best case scenario. He's 25 not 20 so physically he probably is what he already is!

With their 1st selection I'm taking one of the AAA SP types that has the best chance of sticking.

I just don't see the sense of taking this guy and a 20ish year old SS that will sacrifice a year of development for one of these red herring runs.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

It takes away the flexibility to shuttle the extra pitchers. You know roster flexibility that they desperately need due to the poor starting pitching.

The can select 2 SS guys like you mentioned but the chance that they try to carry both is low and the chance that they actually succeed in that endeavor is less than 1%

We lacked system depth in the OF and we took Taverez and Santander, and that was in a season where we were trying to "compete".  Santander has worked out.  I think you're a little off on 1%.  Rodriguez can handle SS defensively while we allow Martin to get some AB's in AAA.  Juvier/Newton/Arauz would be our long term plan.   

I care very little about this perceived problem that we need to "cover innings".  We shouldn't be sacrificing anything of potential value for 2022+ to do anything for this 2020 team.  What's the worst that could happen?  We lost 112 instead of 105?   Who cares?  It like one extra loss every 12 days or something.  I think we'll be ok.  

The arms like Zach Brown don't do it for me.  I'd rather us take a Jordan Sheffield type.  

[Luke-OH]

9 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

How about Jose Rojas? 7% walk rate and .900 OPS at AAA. 11 errors between 2B and 3B but did I mention .900 OPS?

Remember that .900 OPS in the PCL is equivalent to .740 in the Eastern League due to hitting environment. It's still good, but not crazy. 

I haven't watched video on him yet, but if he can play a solid 2B/3B, he's interesting. If not, he's behind guys like Gittens, Nogowski, Ramos at least as a bat first option.