Rule 5 thoughts

[Jammer7]

15 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

He’s got a better eye than Martin and isn’t as much of an extreme GB guy, less bat speed, but less swing and miss as well. He’s not going to hit well, but a Jose Iglesias type bat is very possible. 

Alemias seems interesting, maybe as a second pick. The shoulder would be concerning, but I like the profile. Here is a useful article on him. 

 

https://rumbunter.com/2018/01/24/pirate-prospect-watch-2018-stephen-alemais/

[Enjoy Terror]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Hever Bueno

They say you can’t Hever Bueno and eat it too

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Some more obscure names I like if you want to look them up or have questions.

Stephen Alemais

Hever Bueno

Sam Clay

Trevor Megill

John Nogowski (not a fit for the O’s but a favorite nonetheless)

 

Bueno - seems like a good bit of effort in delivery. TJ surgery at Arizona State. Was their Friday starter though. Lots of injuries have led to very little experience. Some recoil and I don't love the finish at all. Topped out in SAL last year. Pass for me.

Clay - I just watched some video, the slider flashes promise, and the hook is the get me over type and can get slurvey. Change has no depth and the FB was straight. Looks like there is more there, and seems to not get as much extension as he could. Stat wise, walk rate is 5.1 and H/9 is 8.7, 1.53 career WHIP, but K rate is 9.6 and does not give up many HR's (only 6 in 405 innings). Interesting under the radar guy. 

 

[Enjoy Terror]

Heres an old 2014 rule 5 thread for some perspective on the talent available in these things.

[Luke-OH]

@Jammer7

Both of those guys have improved since those videos. Clay is getting big sink on his fastball now, it’s 91-94mph. 

Bueno is practically a different guy, he was 97-99 t100 with a nasty curveball he wasn’t even using in that instructs video. He’s definitely a long shot because he hasn’t been above A ball, but he’s a former PAC-12 starter who is 24 already with premium stuff, he’s as good of a chance as anyone to make the jump. I’ll try to grab some MiLB.tv video when I get a chance. 

[Jammer7]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

@Jammer7

Both of those guys have improved since those videos. Clay is getting big sink on his fastball now, it’s 91-94mph. 

Bueno is practically a different guy, he was 97-99 t100 with a nasty curveball he wasn’t even using in that instructs video. He’s definitely a long shot because he hasn’t been above A ball, but he’s a former PAC-12 starter who is 24 already with premium stuff, he’s as good of a chance as anyone to make the jump. I’ll try to grab some MiLB.tv video when I get a chance. 

Ok, cool. Thank you. Clay's HR rate really jumps at you, and the sink would explain that. I did see a bit of Zack Britton there, just not the velo. Did he scrap the CB, and just go sinker/slider? Would you take Clay over Burrows?

[Luke-OH]

53 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Ok, cool. Thank you. Clay's HR rate really jumps at you, and the sink would explain that. I did see a bit of Zack Britton there, just not the velo. Did he scrap the CB, and just go sinker/slider? Would you take Clay over Burrows?

Yeah, he didn’t throw the curve in the games I watched, slider and change. But it’s a fastball heavy mix. Yes, Clay over Burrows, I saw Burrows at 90-91, sweeping slider, maybe a Paul Fry on a bad day.

I like Corbin Clouse better than Burrows as a LH reliever from the Braves. Clouse is 92-95 with ride and some armside. Locates well armside. Has a good curveball that mirrors the fastball movement.

[sportsfan8703]

On 11/29/2019 at 10:45 PM, Enjoy Terror said:

Heres an old 2014 rule 5 thread for some perspective on the talent available in these things.

Great, that made me feel old. We should’ve traded up for Deshields or Canha. 

[Roll Tide]

Here is an article from Mewleski with JJ Cooper of Baseball America

Best Fits for Orioles - The first 2 are ready according to Cooper but Rojas is not.

Jose Rojas 2B (26 Years Old) .296/.362/.938       SO/BB 131/58      31 HR / 107 RBI     Defensively only 10 Errors in 583 innings

Joe Barlow RH RP (24 Years Old) 57 innings           3.16 ERA  K/BB       93/42   .4 HR/9

 Moises Gomez OF (21 Years Old) Hit .220/.297/.698 (at A+ level) His over numbers in the Minors .259/,320/.757

 

About Orioles Players

Quote

“Is there a chance they get picked? Yeah, there’s a chance. But say Sedlock got picked. For him to be a big leaguer, he has to be at the top of his velocity range and do everything right. Let’s say he does that for some team in March. He sticks on an opening day roster. Then he has to keep that up for another five months. That is the hard part. Rule 5 picks, especially pitchers, seem to pick up aches and pains throughout the year. You have to keep them on the active roster for 90 days. Making a roster doesn’t mean you are going to stick.

What about right-hander Gray Fenter, who had such a strong year for Single-A Delmarva?

“Fenter, let’s put it this way: If there was a team out there that is likely to take Fenter - and there may be a few others - it would be the Orioles,” Cooper said. “There aren’t that many teams in that situation. You are really talking about the Royals, who have usually taken a guy closer to the majors in past history. The Tigers maybe. You start running out of teams that are not expected to be competitive in any way in 2020.”

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/12/a-look-at-the-upcoming-rule-5-draft-with-baseball-americas-jj-cooper.html

[Roll Tide]

On 11/29/2019 at 8:46 PM, Luke-OH said:

Some more obscure names I like if you want to look them up or have questions.

Stephen Alemais

Hever Bueno

Sam Clay

Trevor Megill

John Nogowski (not a fit for the O’s but a favorite nonetheless)

 

Luke, I notice you didn’t mention Rojas in your post. The guy looks ready to go and looks like he could be a steal. Unless the Tigers take him he’d be my 1st pick. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Luke, I notice you didn’t mention Rojas in your post. The guy looks ready to go and looks like he could be a steal. Unless the Tigers take him he’d be my 1st pick. 

I said this about Rojas on the other Rule 5 thread (minor league discussion) a while back.

"He’s hit at every level, he’s also been 2 years older than most prospects at each level. I think he’ll hit some in the majors. I just don’t know if he plays passable defense at 3B or 2B. There are better bats out there IMO if you want a 1B/DH type.  Huge power types like Ramos,  Gittens, etc. or bat control/approach types like Nogowski or Filia."

He's definitely a name that's out there and he may get picked. He's going to be close but probably not in my top 10. 

Those names you quoted aren't my necessarily my top choices to be clear, just obscure names that people wouldn't hear about much from anywhere else. I shared my initial top 10 earlier in this thread (which included Barlow and Gomez), although my thoughts have changed some with the 20-30 hours of game video I've watched since then.

 

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I said this about Rojas on the other Rule 5 thread (minor league discussion) a while back.

"He’s hit at every level, he’s also been 2 years older than most prospects at each level. I think he’ll hit some in the majors. I just don’t know if he plays passable defense at 3B or 2B. There are better bats out there IMO if you want a 1B/DH type.  Huge power types like Ramos,  Gittens, etc. or bat control/approach types like Nogowski or Filia."

He's definitely a name that's out there and he may get picked. He's going to be close but probably not in my top 10. 

Those names you quoted aren't my necessarily my top choices to be clear, just obscure names that people wouldn't hear about much from anywhere else. I shared my initial top 10 earlier in this thread (which included Barlow and Gomez), although my thoughts have changed some with the 20-30 hours of game video I've watched since then.

 

He only has 10 errors in 550 innings....is range his problem?

[Luke-OH]

Also, my full Rule 5 thoughts will be clear in a couple days, I'm hard at work putting together my list of the Top 50 eligible players.

Until then, I'm more than willing to answer any questions about certain players or suggest interesting names that fit certain profiles. 

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He only has 10 errors in 550 innings....is range his problem?

Yeah, just not a quick twitch athlete, not very fast, stocky build.

[7Mo]

24 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Also, my full Rule 5 thoughts will be clear in a couple days, I'm hard at work putting together my list of the Top 50 eligible players.

Until then, I'm more than willing to answer any questions about certain players or suggest interesting names that fit certain profiles. 

You've mentioned the difference in taking a guy who can fill in for the time being as opposed to a guy who has ceiling, a developmental guy. 

There's talk on the board about Hechevarria. You've described Alemais as an outstanding glove who isn't likely to hit much. Without knowing, they seem pretty similar, Alemais likely to be a superior defender.

You're inviting questions about specific prospects and I appreciate that. But my questions, for now, are: 1- are Hechevarria and Alemais pretty similar and if so 2- why use a Rule 5 pick on Alemais if you can get basically the same guy (Hech) on the open market?

It seems likely there will be a bullpen guy available that might help the O's in 2020 but isn't a long term difference maker. And in the same vein as above, there should be some free agents that do the same.

I'm looking forward to your list and will have questions then but I'd guess my focus is on who has value over and above available free agents. 

Going one step further, you've talked about the Angels 4 return as guys with tools for the Holt staff to develop. Would you think those tools likely telegraph who the O's focus on in the Rule 5?