Calling Elias incompetent is unfair

[weams]

No more red downvotes on this subject.

[drjohnnyfeva]

On 11/29/2019 at 10:44 PM, Sessh said:

This is simply not true. As previously stated, he played 156 games in 2016. He played 122 games in 2017, but missed a month due to a back injury. He played 141 games in 2018, but missed 10 games due to a thumb injury. He has been a full time player for four years during which time he has accumulated a 10.7 WAR with one bad year of the four. I'm not sure where you're getting the "not an everyday player" thing from. It's simply false.

Ok, perhaps you're correct about being an "everyday player," but there was definitely a question prior to his being traded to us about where he was going to play in Milwaukee and if the Brewers could do better with their in-house guys prior to deciding they couldn't and trading for Schoop.  I guess the bigger point is that it's only in 2016 where his numbers even approached what he did this year.  So he's got a spotty resume.  He's been closer to 1.0-1.5 WAR player for his career than he has been a 4.0 WAR player.  A rebuilding team that values analytics is not going to re-sign a guy like that especially when they are still in cost cutting mode.

I like the guy, don't get me wrong.  It's just not a good fit and I feel like the reason he wasn't able to be traded is because other teams aren't convinced and feel he's potential mirage.  10 Million for a potential mirage... 

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

Ok, perhaps you're correct about being an "everyday player," but there was definitely a question prior to his being traded to us about where he was going to play in Milwaukee and if the Brewers could do better with their in-house guys prior to deciding they couldn't and trading for Schoop.  I guess the bigger point is that it's only in 2016 where his numbers even approached what he did this year.  So he's got a spotty resume.  He's been closer to 1.0-1.5 WAR player for his career than he has been a 4.0 WAR player.  A rebuilding team that values analytics is not going to re-sign a guy like that especially when they are still in cost cutting mode.

I like the guy, don't get me wrong.  It's just not a good fit and I feel like the reason he wasn't able to be traded is because other teams aren't convinced and feel he's potential mirage.  10 Million for a potential mirage... 

He has produced years of 3.9, .1, 2.7, and 4.0.  You would take that in a player. For reference Hanser Alberto who many thought had a really good year and was among hitting leaders all season produced only 1.9 good for 3rd on the team. Villar had 3 seasons better in the last 4.

Villar has only been a full time player since 2016. He was 25 during 2016 so he was age appropriate to be bouncing back and forth between the minors prior to 2016.

For reference .... Ryan Mountcastle wss 22 at AAA, according to baseball reference his age differential is -4.9 for the level and -3.3 at Bowie last season.

So using the years where he was an established major leaguer is 2016-2019 and his average WAR 2.675. If you throw out the anomaly that was obviously due to a back injury he's been a 3.5 WAR ball player.

[drjohnnyfeva]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He has produced years of 3.9, .1, 2.7, and 4.0.  You would take that in a player. For reference Hanser Alberto who many thought had a really good year and was among hitting leaders all season produced only 1.9 good for 3rd on the team. Villar had 3 seasons better in the last 4.

Villar has only been a full time player since 2016. He was 25 during 2016 so he was age appropriate to be bouncing back and forth between the minors prior to 2016.

For reference .... Ryan Mountcastle wss 22 at AAA, according to baseball reference his age differential is -4.9 for the level and -3.3 at Bowie last season.

So using the years where he was an established major leaguer is 2016-2019 and his average WAR 2.675. If you throw out the anomaly that was obviously due to a back injury he's been a 3.5 WAR ball player.

I'll concede your numbers, I guess.  I included his non-"everyday player" years.  Yet it really doesn't matter to the argument due to the situation the club is in.  This is a money issue on a cost cutting team.  That is what it boils down to.  They tried to trade him.  It didn't work.  He's too expensive and other teams aren't biting.  There has to be something to that.  He's a decent player.  He's in the wrong place at the wrong time to get paid.  And evidently other teams feel they can get him at a cheaper price or get him and not have to give anything up.  I don't think that makes our GM incompetent.

[WarehouseChatter]

39 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So using the years where he was an established major leaguer is 2016-2019 and his average WAR 2.675. If you throw out the anomaly that was obviously due to a back injury he's been a 3.5 WAR ball player.

 

Roll Tide......serious question.....are you in the camp that Elias is incompetent (or at least has made some very questionable decisions)?  Any chance he’s doing what he can with the budget allotted to him (i.e. his hands are tied and he is forced to make moves such as this?)

I sometimes wonder if our organization “overhaul” is smoke and mirrors for the fact that we have a dwindling budget yet want to keep fans encouraged.  I don’t want to think this, but I wonder.  Thoughts?

[atomic]

The funniest thing I find about is the following:

I said a certain Orioles drafted player should go to college over signing either the Orioles due to the importance of a college degree in life.

People on here blasted me for such comments.  
 

Elias then fires a bunch of long term scouts.  Even ones that were good scouts.

Orioles post position available for scouts on team website with only qualification required is a college degree.

Not one person who insulted me about me stating importance of college degree has said one word criticizing Elias for the move.

Makes you wonder how people’s minds work.  

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, WarehouseChatter said:

 

Roll Tide......serious question.....are you in the camp that Elias is incompetent (or at least has made some very questionable decisions)?  Any chance he’s doing what he can with the budget allotted to him (i.e. his hands are tied and he is forced to make moves such as this?)

I sometimes wonder if our organization “overhaul” is smoke and mirrors for the fact that we have a dwindling budget yet want to keep fans encouraged.  I don’t want to think this, but I wonder.  Thoughts?

1) I think he's made some big blunders. 

I think he could've dealt Villar ....as he said in a quote to Roch anout being under no pressure to deal because he had no pending free agents. If that doesn't tell the guys that are trashing Villar and adamantly defending him there is nothing else to say.

Blunder #2 was telling a major media outlet that he had no intention of paying (tendering Villar). I think it hurt him in negotiations since the end of the season and to add on to point 1. If he was indeed the not going to tender him then he should have been under some pressure to deal him, After all the 2 or so WAR for the second half of the season was meaningless on a team that was losing 100 games right? You could argue his performance had a lot to do with finishing behind the Tigers. So again based on his own comments I think he made some bid mistakes 

Honestly I'm not sure what the budget is that was assigned by Peters sons. So yes it's possible that they want to further cut payroll. I've argued that they saved 80-100 million last year and will save another 80- 100 million this year even if they paid Villar 10 million. Back to your question....I've wanted a change of ownership since Angelos' changed his approach drastically after Albert Belle. I still want a change of ownership.

i don't know how to respond to your second paragraph except to say possibly. But if they wanted to fool the fan base, Villar and some middling signings would probably appeased the average fan. I don't know about you but I expect attendance to drop further. 

Thanks for the great conversation! 

Cheers

[Roll Tide]

36 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

I'll concede your numbers, I guess.  I included his non-"everyday player" years.  Yet it really doesn't matter to the argument due to the situation the club is in.  This is a money issue on a cost cutting team.  That is what it boils down to.  They tried to trade him.  It didn't work.  He's too expensive and other teams aren't biting.  There has to be something to that.  He's a decent player.  He's in the wrong place at the wrong time to get paid.  And evidently other teams feel they can get him at a cheaper price or get him and not have to give anything up.  I don't think that makes our GM incompetent.

Ok .....the part time years wouldn't matter because he's a full time player no matter where he goes. I doubt he's going to sign somewhere that he has not the start. I keep seeing  the Reds or Phillies to be their leadoff man.

The money is only an issue if you don't consider the 80-100 million that they've already cut is enough. The payroll would be almost not for bad luck with Cobb and Davis' which can only be blamed on Peter for negotiationing against himself. We've discussed at nausea the national and MASN tv right share covering a 150-160 million dollar payroll. I used 110 plus 60 million (National Share + MASN) in the past (published numbers) but want to avoid another lengthy discussion about it. And I don't believe that takes into account the additional money that they got /will get for being a low revenue team. 

I agree ... if you read my other posts criticizing Elias

He played card 1 just after the deadline "Felt no pressure to deal as he had no pending free agents"

and Card 2  (Interview with the Baltimore Sun) "Not payout Villar 10 million to pay on a team he wants /hopes/ or will lose 100 games.

Do you think Card 2 helped Villar's trade value? 

[Roll Tide]

36 minutes ago, atomic said:

The funniest thing I find about is the following:

I said a certain Orioles drafted player should go to college over signing either the Orioles due to the importance of a college degree in life.

People on here blasted me for such comments.  
 

Elias then fires a bunch of long term scouts.  Even ones that were good scouts.

Orioles post position available for scouts on team website with only qualification required is a college degree.

Not one person who insulted me about me stating importance of college degree has said one word criticizing Elias for the move.

Makes you wonder how people’s minds work.  

Interesting fact.... I am a disabled Army veteran. Have been in the B2B arena that includes 12 years in the very niche intellectual property world. I left that arena a few years ago after a CEO change, lost of role despite very high performance numbers (probably equivalent to 4 WAR (Being sarcastic guys). 

I finished my BS of Management mid career and am half way to an MBA. Yet finding a comparable role has been difficult.

My point I guess is that I think the college degree value is inflated.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, WarehouseChatter said:

 

Roll Tide......serious question.....are you in the camp that Elias is incompetent (or at least has made some very questionable decisions)?  Any chance he’s doing what he can with the budget allotted to him (i.e. his hands are tied and he is forced to make moves such as this?)

I sometimes wonder if our organization “overhaul” is smoke and mirrors for the fact that we have a dwindling budget yet want to keep fans encouraged.  I don’t want to think this, but I wonder.  Thoughts?

If I offended you in my opening response to you, I am truly sorry! I hope you hang around and post regularly. 

I attempted to explain why it wasn't in a follow up response. Merely responding to the points in your first post.

The result of which was a negative rep spamming of around 20 hits by 3 guys (9 by 1, and 6 by #2 ....who were born between 1967 & 1969, rep regularly but Rarely or never post.

 

 

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Interesting fact.... I am a disabled Army veteran. Have been in the B2B arena that includes 12 years in the very niche intellectual property world. I left that arena a few years ago after a CEO change, lost of role despite very high performance numbers (probably equivalent to 4 WAR (Being sarcastic guys). 

I finished my BS of Management mid career and am half way to an MBA. Yet finding a comparable role has been difficult.

My point I guess is that I think the college degree value is inflated.

It’s not a separator in and of itself. But in plenty of fields it’s a requirement to get in the door and also a requirement for eligibility for career-related credentials and certifications. I have just a BS in a science field and by itself it doesn’t do much for me, but it got me in the door at my current job and also allowed me to get important industry-specific certifications much more quickly than if I hadn’t had a degree. 

Now if I wanted to go into a new field, my degree wouldn’t do that much for me above entry level unless there was valid crossover of job skills. 

So I’d say a degree is a useful step towards many career paths, but not a career maker by itself.

But back to the topic, high school draftees are allowed to have money for college in their contracts that doesn’t count towards the bonus pool limits. So most HS draftees finish a degree before they are out of baseball.

[Scalious]

17 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Then why was no one else interested in him, Tony? Is all of MLB wrong? All those people who are paid to evaluate and assess talent for a living?

This has less to do with talent valuation and more the state of the FA Market. Less teams spending + same FAs= Devaluation of FAs. 

Elias is absolutely not incompetent in this from an X's and O's standpoint. Rental hitters have poor market value right now.. What you can get for Villar, is not worth 10M. You are better off throwing a ton of cheap bones at struggling pitchers. Hoping a few float and become tradeable assets at the deadline.

Edited December 1, 2019 by Scalious

[7Mo]

23 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

But back to the topic, high school draftees are allowed to have money for college in their contracts that doesn’t count towards the bonus pool limits. So most HS draftees finish a degree before they are out of baseball.

Correct me if I'm wrong but that college money is typically the equivalent of the cost of tuition they gave up in order to sign, meaning if the drafted player had committed to Clemson, the drafting organization would add college costs equal to 4 years of tuition at Clemson, being what the player forfeited to sign his contract. 

[Luke-OH]

Just now, 7Mo said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but that college money is typically the equivalent of the cost of tuition they gave up in order to sign, meaning if the drafted player had committed to Clemson, the drafting organization would add college costs equal to 4 years of tuition at Clemson, being what the player forfeited to sign his contract. 

I’m not sure, I just know it’s an extremely common provision.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Scalious said:

This has less to do with talent valuation and more the state of the FA Market. Less teams spending + same FAs= Devaluation of FAs. 

Elias is absolutely not incompetent in this from an X's and O's standpoint. Rental hitters have poor market value right now.. What you can get for Villar, is not worth 10M. You are better off throwing a ton of cheap bones at struggling pitchers. Hoping a few float and become tradeable assets at the deadline.

He's not worth 3.5 WAR at $10 million? I disagree