ESPN: How is WAR Really Calculated

[weams]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28210701/how-war-calculated-really-breaking-single-play-find-out

Quote

Some of the participants who arguably didn't do their jobs escape statistical notice. Center fielder Haseley stood watching the play and wasn't in position to back up the final throw to second base. There is no stat for that. Hoskins didn't cut the ball off when he had a play on Peraza at second base, but that isn't recorded. The third-base coach gets no statistical credit or blame for holding Lorenzen at third base, but we will never even know whether that was the right decision or not, whether he deserves credit or blame.

 

[Frobby]

Fantastic article.    It really shows the complexity of trying to reduce everything that happens on a baseball field to a statistic.    

[Moose Milligan]

In my mind, it looks like this guy throwing numbers around until something sticks.

[backwardsk]

This is a great article that shows the nuances of the calculation and its limitations, especially on the defense and base running side.

But the best part is that it discusses Drungo’s All-American JR House.

[TonySoprano]

Part II of the ESPN Report - What is WAR good for?

 

 

Absolutely nothing.

[weams]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fantastic article.    It really shows the complexity of trying to reduce everything that happens on a baseball field to a statistic.    

Thanks - It helps me. 

[NCRaven]

20 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Part II of the ESPN Report - What is WAR good for?

Absolutely nothing.

Say it again!

[weams]

24 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Part II of the ESPN Report - What is WAR good for?

 

 

Absolutely nothing.

Until they fix the defensive data component? Correct! Say it again. Huh!

[GuidoSarducci]

Counterpoint - that was a highly unusual play, just one of thousands that occur over a 162 game season.   Its true, all those stats mentioned do not perfectly capture the value of a baseball player.   But the stats still has value. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Counterpoint - that was a highly unusual play, just one of thousands that occur over a 162 game season.   Its true, all those stats mentioned do not perfectly capture the value of a baseball player.   But the stats still has value. 

Yeah, you probably only have 3-4 plays per game that are complex to analyze.     So, the stat is still useful, but not as comprehensive as we’d like.    And no amount of further research and study is ever going to make it so, even though improvements can be made.