Beginning of the End of Washington Nats

[webbrick2010]

245 Million for 7 years of a 31 yo pitcher who has only topped 175 innings in 2 of the last 6 years.

Anyone think this contract will look good in 2 years ? Will it look good next year?

When will teams learn to stop paying for past performance and keep away from all Boras clients.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

245 Million for 7 years of a 31 yo pitcher who has only topped 175 innings in 2 of the last 6 years.

Anyone think this contract will look good in 2 years ? Will it look good next year?

When will teams learn to stop paying for past performance and keep away from all Boras clients.

I guess Scherzer’s success has misled them.   

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess Scherzer’s success has misled them.   

I don't think Strasburg will have a Scherzer like run

Scherzer has been over 170 innings every year of his career, he never had the Strasburg injury issues

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I don't think Strasburg will have a Scherzer like run

Scherzer has been over 170 innings every year of his career, he never had the Strasburg injury issues

Scherzer is a unicorn.    I agree the Strasburg odds of earning his contract aren’t good.    Perhaps it will be 3-4 years before he hits a wall, if he’s fortunate.

[backwardsk]

Just like the Werth contract set them back years.  And then the Zimmerman extension crippled them financially.  Then the big overpay for Corbin.

Take a look at Tyson’s.  The Lerners aren’t running out of money.

Strasburg’s contract most likely will be an overpay in terms of WAR vs dollar, but it won’t stop them from spending more money, won’t prevent them finding international FAs, and won’t prevent them from drafting and developing.

[backwardsk]

2 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

245 Million for 7 years of a 31 yo pitcher who has only topped 175 innings in 2 of the last 6 years.

Anyone think this contract will look good in 2 years ? Will it look good next year?

When will teams learn to stop paying for past performance and keep away from all Boras clients.

The bold is incorrect.

[Aglets]

Yea if you said 2 of the last 5 you'd be correct.  It would strategically ignore the 215 innings he threw in 2014.

[Aglets]

Apparently the deal has a lot of deferred money in it though, do we have the details on that yet?

[webbrick2010]

3 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Yea if you said 2 of the last 5 you'd be correct.  It would strategically ignore the 215 innings he threw in 2014.

Sorry, 2 of 5, to me not a great % for a guy you give 30+M/year thru his age 37 season.

[Aglets]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

Sorry, 2 of 5, to me not a great % for a guy you give 30+M/year thru his age 37 season.

Pretty sure everyone here will agree it was an overpay.   As a non-Nats fan (and especially a fan of anything that harms the Yankees who will now have to pony up 300M+ for Cole) I support this deal 100%.

[webbrick2010]

Just now, Aglets said:

Pretty sure everyone here will agree it was an overpay.   As a non-Nats fan (and especially a fan of anything that harms the Yankees who will now have to pony up 300M+ for Cole) I support this deal 100%.

Amen, brother

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Just like the Werth contract set them back years.  And then the Zimmerman extension crippled them financially.  Then the big overpay for Corbin.

Take a look at Tyson’s.  The Lerners aren’t running out of money.

Strasburg’s contract most likely will be an overpay in terms of WAR vs dollar, but it won’t stop them from spending more money, won’t prevent them finding international FAs, and won’t prevent them from drafting and developing.

To my knowledge, the Lerners have never used their wealth to subsidize the Nationals.    They have had positive operating income every year.     To date, they’ve built a successful franchise despite a few overly aggressive contracts (really, just the Werth and Zimmerman contracts you mentioned).     That’s a tribute to excellent scouting, drafting and development under Rizzo’s watch. They’ve also walked away from many of their better players when the price got too high (Harper, Zimmermann, Desmond).     And, their bet on Scherzer paid off huge, the prior Strasburg extension was a win, and they got their money’s worth out of Corbin in year one of his deal.     Great for them, and they have a World Series trophy to show for it.    

None of that guarantees future success, though.    Baseball fortunes are fickle.    Five years from now the Nats may be looking back on a sustained period of success, or a period where things crumbled, mostly depending on whether their free agent pitching investments continue to pay dividends.      
 

[7Mo]

30 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Apparently the deal has a lot of deferred money in it though, do we have the details on that yet?

@Ken_Rosenthal

 

Strasburg deal with #Nationals: $35M per season from 2020 to ‘26, including $11.428,571.43 each year deferred with 1 percent simple interest ($80M total deferred). Per

@Joelsherman1

, deferrals will be paid in first three years after contract expires.

[Aglets]

ah so it only gets deferred to 27-29 then?    Chris Davis laughs at such a deal.

[Frobby]

On 12/10/2019 at 12:51 PM, Aglets said:

ah so it only gets deferred to 27-29 then?    Chris Davis laughs at such a deal.

For a couple of those years, they’ll be paying $15 mm in deferred comp to Scherzer and $11 mm to Strasburg.    The Scherzer $15 mm payments run 2022-28.     And, $10 mm/yr to Corbin in 2024-26.    So:

2022: $15 mm

2023: $15 mm

2024: $25 mm

2025: $25 mm

2026: $25 mm

2027: $26 mm

2028: $26 mm

2029: $11 mm

As I’ve explained before, most of that money has to be put into escrow long before it’s paid.