Who Are Your Top Three Rule 5 Targets?

[Beef Supreme]

I have been eagerly anticipating Luke's final analysis of this year's Rule 5 eligible players. I thought it might be fun -- for those of us who care -- to share their top three players, since the Orioles have the second pick. Here are mine:
1. Wander Javier
2. Shervyen Newton
3. Esteury Ruiz

You can see what I am doing here: focusing on young middle infielders while overlooking all the pitchers. I can see arguments supporting Friedl or Reed as the first round pick, However, I'd gamble on trying to find a future SS/2B since the system has a few interesting outfielders, but a dearth of infield prospects (is Gunnar's future at third base?) I understand that picking according to need is not recommended in the Rule 4 draft, but I don't know whether the strategy may vary in the Rule 5.

Who are your top three picks?

 

[Aristotelian]

Jose Rojas, Eduard Bazardo

[TINSTAAPP]

I'm looking at the stats for Javier and Newton and both of those guys put up a sub .300 OBP in low A-ball in last year. What am I missing?

[weams]

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2019/12/9/20939137/detroit-tigers-rule-5-draft-preview-esteury-ruiz-roberto-ramos-wander-javier-eli-white

Quote

2B Esteury Ruiz, San Diego Padres

San Diego suffered a roster crunch that forced them to leave Ruiz unprotected, who would certainly have been added to the 40-man in a different organization. His tools are undeniable, and he offers the potential to hold down second base for a long time. There’s quite a bit of risk involved with this pick — it isn’t based on performance. His offensive numbers slumped in 2019 in the pitcher-friendly environment of High-A. His glovework isn’t al that interesting and he is projected to be below average in the field. Despite that, he’s still a very interesting prospect with an exciting power/speed combination and a history of praise for bat control. He still has room to fill out his slender 6-foot frame. Once he packs on some more muscle and gets more reps (he’s only 20 years old), he could be a reliable bat-first middle infielder.

Steamer Projections: .200/.242/.288, 39 wRC+ (Video)

 

[Frobby]

Whoever Luke says they are!    

Slight exaggeration, but I’ve never bothered to study the Rule 5 candidates independently.    
 

[weams]

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-2019-rule-5-draft-preview/c-312119256

 

Quote

Sterling Sharp, right-handed pitcher, Nationals: Washington left its No. 13 prospect unprotected -- a bit of a headscratcher considering its 40-man space. The 24-year-old was limited to 58 2/3 innings during the regular season (mostly with Double-A Harrisburg) due to an oblique injury, but was a standout in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 1.50 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP with 24 strikeouts in 24 innings. When healthy, Sharp can be one of the best ground-ball pitchers in the Minors, thanks to a low-90s fastball featuring a lot of sink and spin (65 percent of batted balls against him were on the ground in 2019). With his AFL experience and time at Double-A, Sharp is closing in on Major League readiness and could be a back-end starting option right away. Of note: Sharp is a Michigan native who worked to raise money for the Detroit Police Athletic League this year. Could a return home with the Tigers be in the offing?

Quote

 

Sharp looked good when I saw him in Harrisburg. 

[weams]

Just now, Frobby said:

Whoever Luke says they are!    

Slight exaggeration, but I’ve never bothered to study the Rule 5 candidates independently.    
 

Quote

Zack Brown, right-handed pitcher, Brewers: It's not often a club leaves its top pitching prospect open to the Rule 5 Draft. Then again, it's not often a club's top pitching prospect finishes a full season with a 5.79 ERA. Brown was especially hurt by the offensive explosion at Triple-A in 2019, particularly away from San Antonio, finishing with a 7.62 ERA and 12 homers allowed in 54 1/3 innings on the road. Before the downturn, the 24-year-old was well regarded for his low-90s fastball and plus curve, and a club could find enough to work with there, results aside. With a full Triple-A campaign under his belt, Brown also has experience on his side.

 

[Beef Supreme]

17 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

I'm looking at the stats for Javier and Newton and both of those guys put up a sub .300 OBP in low A-ball in last year. What am I missing?

Both players are just under 21, so there is room to improve. Javier looks like he could stick at SS if his bat merits it. He was coming back from surgery last year after missing all of 2018. Newton hit well in 2018 in Rookie ball. Both look like they might mature into having some power. If you are missing anything it is that, if either or both is picked in this draft and stays with the team drafting them, they might spend all of 2021 and 2022 in the minors, with the hope they will make it to MLB for good in 2023. They will probably need to sustain OBPs higher than .300 to do so, of course.

[Tony-OH]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Whoever Luke says they are!    

Slight exaggeration, but I’ve never bothered to study the Rule 5 candidates independently.    
 

Haha, me too. I'm looking forward to his list and then will look through them and come up with my favorite three!

[oriole]

I don’t think anyone can realistically hope for anything more than a RP or utility infielder. I’d focus on who could fill those roles best. Though it’d be fun to see how long a rule 5 SP could stick. 

[weams]

 

[weams]

7 minutes ago, oriole said:

I don’t think anyone can realistically hope for anything more than a RP or utility infielder. I’d focus on who could fill those roles best. Though it’d be fun to see how long a rule 5 SP could stick. 

I disagree. With a second pick, a backend starter or an infielder should be available. 

[weams]

Quote

Wander Javier (SS) - Minnesota Twins

This kid signed for $4 million as one of the biggest bonus babies of the ’15-’16 international signing period. He’s had terrible luck staying healthy, though. He lost a whole season to a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and still hasn’t played an entire healthy season in four years state-side. But if a team thinks all the skills are still there (and it sure looks like they are) and that his injuries aren’t chronic (doesn’t seem like it) he could be a potential target. With the 26^th roster spot now available, I could see a team using it to stash raw talent like this kid.

https://www.redreporter.com/2019/12/9/21003386/mlb-rumors-rule-5-reds-brady-aiken-wander-javier

[weams]

Quote

Andy Ibáñez, the 26-year-old infielder, has put together a fine season for AAA Nashville Sounds hitting .300/.375/.497 with 30 2Bs, 1 3B, 20 HRs, 7/14 stolen bases.

Ibáñez was a standout prospect on the Cuba international team before signing with the Rangers in 2015. Ibáñez has a short compact swing, which makes him difficult to strikeout and produces solid gap-to-gap power. Ibáñez has had some issues with breaking balls, but he has produced consistent hitting numbers during his minor league career (.285/.352/.443 in 1,732 minor league at-bats).

Ibáñez has a high floor and is likely to be at least an average MLB regular. He has shown positional versatility and can play average defense at second base, third base, and first base. He’s seen some time at shortstop, but his athleticism and arm are limited in that role.

The current Rangers infielder has the potential to be a .270 hitter (with an added 60 points via OBP), with 11-14 home runs (better gap power hitter), the athleticism to provide average defense at multiple positions, and steal 7-10 bases a year.

 

 

https://kckingdom.com/2019/12/05/kansas-city-royals-rule-5-draft-targets-2020/

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

 

1 hour ago, weams said:

 

Wander Javier (SS) - Minnesota Twins

This kid signed for $4 million as one of the biggest bonus babies of the ’15-’16 international signing period. He’s had terrible luck staying healthy, though. He lost a whole season to a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and still hasn’t played an entire healthy season in four years state-side. But if a team thinks all the skills are still there (and it sure looks like they are) and that his injuries aren’t chronic (doesn’t seem like it) he could be a potential target. With the 26^th roster spot now available, I could see a team using it to stash raw talent like this kid.

 

If the Orioles took Javier, basically they would just be stashing him for a year and maybe use him as a utility guy on occasion. Considering the way he hit last year, he might struggle to hit .150 at the major league level right now.