Would you sign Hays to the Luis Robert deal?

[interloper]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/white-sox-to-extend-luis-robert.html

Luis Robert is 22 and a CF prospect for the White Sox. 

8/$88 max value, $50 guaranteed over 6.

".297/.341/.634 with 16 home runs in 223 plate appearances during his first (and maybe only) taste of Triple-A action."

Younger than Hays and definitely more upside and less injury risk. 

[Frobby]

No chance anyone favors signing Hays for $50 mm guaranteed.    We didn’t even have a majority in favor of $24 mm guaranteed.   

I think guaranteeing that much to Robert is a pretty big gamble.   

 

 

[interloper]

My first thought is I'd definitely be fine to pay Hays 6/$50.  It's only $8/yr. For what you hope to be your starting CF? 

Do I think Elias will? I think they definitely want to see if he can stay healthy, but you don't make these deals after a guy does well in his first full ML season, you make them before then. 

These kinds of deals are the kinds of things I hope Elias eventually does (or, if you prefer to speculate, gets approval to do). Right now it's an unknown. Duquette didn't get any done, so my hopes are low. There are probably other players where it makes more sense than Hays also (Mountcastle, etc). 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

No chance anyone favors signing Hays for $50 mm guaranteed.    We didn’t even have a majority in favor of $24 mm guaranteed.   

I think guaranteeing that much to Robert is a pretty big gamble.   

 

 

Yep, Hays is no where near that type of prospect.

White Sox were already at ~50M on Robert before they did this deal.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

My first thought is I'd definitely be fine to pay Hays 6/$50.  It's only $8/yr. For what you hope to be your starting CF? 

Do I think Elias will? I think they definitely want to see if he can stay healthy, but you don't make these deals after a guy does well in his first full ML season, you make them before then. 

These kinds of deals are the kinds of things I hope Elias eventually does (or, if you prefer to speculate, gets approval to do). Right now it's an unknown. Duquette didn't get any done, so my hopes are low. There are probably other players where it makes more sense than Hays also (Mountcastle, etc). 

But they have a locked in price of 550K or so for the first three years.  So it's 15M a year for the last three which is way more than he is likely to make in arbitration.

[mdbdotcom]

He doesn't project as someone worth that kind of commitment, so let him prove it first.

[MurphDogg]

Like the deal for Robert, would be happy to sign Rutschman to a similar deal a year from now if everything goes according to plan.

I think it is (obviously) a bit rich for Hays, but I continue to think you guys who don't want to guarantee him $24M are silly!

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, MurphDogg said:

Like the deal for Robert, would be happy to sign Rutschman to a similar deal a year from now if everything goes according to plan.

I think it is a bit rich for Hays, but I continue to think you guys who don't want to guarantee him $24M are silly!

I'd pull the trigger on 20M.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But they have a locked in price of 550K or so for the first three years.  So it's 15M a year for the last three which is way more than he is likely to make in arbitration.

It’s almost impossible to make that in arbitration.   You have to be a Mookie Betts level performer.    

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd pull the trigger on 20M.

I think the extra $4 million is worth it in public relations. The fans need a win and someone that the club can point to and say that he will be a part of the future, and you shouldn't hesitate to buy his jersey.

[Scalious]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

My first thought is I'd definitely be fine to pay Hays 6/$50.  It's only $8/yr. 

Do I think Elias will? I think they definitely want to see if he can stay healthy, but you don't make these deals after a guy does well in his first full ML season, you make them before then. 

These kinds of deals are the kinds of things I hope Elias eventually does (or, if you prefer to speculate, gets approval to do). Right now it's an unknown. Duquette didn't get any done, so my hopes are low. There are probably other players where it makes more sense than Hays also (Mountcastle, etc). 

Players don't make anything noteale unti arb. Its not 6/50. It's really more like paying 48 Mil for 4 years of arb (12 Per average). Or 16M per with 3 years of Arb.  (Not to mention its very hard to make a ton in arb 1, even when you are good)

Roberts was going to have 4 years of arbitration, but if they held him in april. They would have had him for 7 years. So the 50M only cover 3 years. So a 16m per year value roughly. At the benefit of 2 option years..  He only surrendered 1 year of FA. Which he would get 88M.

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s almost impossible to make that in arbitration.   You have to be a Mookie Betts level performer.    

Roberts is going to have some gaudy counting stats though. It really isn't much of a discount in arbitration though, I agree. The only real savings is in the 2/40M (1/20 and 1/20) at the end.

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But they have a locked in price of 550K or so for the first three years.  So it's 15M a year for the last three which is way more than he is likely to make in arbitration.

Yep, yeah you're right. Too much when thinking about arbitration. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I think the extra $4 million is worth it in public relations. The fans need a win and someone that the club can point to and say that he will be a part of the future, and you shouldn't hesitate to buy his jersey.

Right, I forgot about the public relations worth.  I'd go $20,000,050.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Roberts is going to have some gaudy counting stats though. It really isn't much of a discount in arbitration though, I agree. The only real savings is in the 2/40M (1/20 and 1/20) at the end.

I think it is more about the 8 years of control than it is saving money.