Should we go after Andrew Cashner?

[wildbillhiccup]

34 minutes ago, interloper said:

But where is the ire coming from exactly? The 2018 team was going to be terrible no matter who they signed to pitch for them. We all know that now. It was a dice roll and it didn't work out until 2019 when he did pitch very well on a bad team and didn't pout about it. 

I just don't see why folks dislike him so much. Sure, there are the reports of his abrasive (but, I think it's been stated, well-meaning) personality at times. But he didn't block any prospects, he stayed mostly healthy and ate innings, his contract didn't hurt the organization like Cobb's or Ubaldo's did, and we got something for him. 

/shrug

I'm not even making this personal. I don't like him because his middling strike out rate gives him very little margin for error. If you're a SP in this era and you don't average close to a K per 9 you're a ticking time bomb. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Well they admittedly weren't using analytics at the time. Is it really that much of a stretch to think that they were more focused on stats like ERA then the more advanced stats that would have pointed to the unbelievable amount of luck he had in 2017? No other team in their right mind would have given Cashner a multi-year deal. 

I think you are vastly overstating the degree to which the Orioles were behind the curve on analytics.    I have no doubt they were in the bottom half or worse of major league teams in this regard.   But the stuff we are talking about is nowhere near the cutting edge of analytics.   Stats like FIP and xFIP etc. are at least 15 years old, and readily available to the public and discussed regularly in all manner of baseball publications and sites.    No front office could be ignorant of that.    And it’s not like the O’s didn’t have an analytics department.     

[SteveA]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you are vastly overstating the degree to which the Orioles were behind the curve on analytics.    I have no doubt they were in the bottom half or worse of major league teams in this regard.   But the stuff we are talking about is nowhere near the cutting edge of analytics.   Stats like FIP and xFIP etc. are at least 15 years old, and readily available to the public and discussed regularly in all manner of baseball publications and sites.    No front office could be ignorant of that.    And it’s not like the O’s didn’t have an analytics department.     

Isn't it possible though that moves were made that went against the recommendation of the analytics department in some cases?   Cashner, Davis, Tillman, etc?  I think it's very possible that we had a fractured chain of command and murky division of roles such that some decisions were made by people who probably did not pay much attention to analytics, at least when the analytics disagreed with their gut, their loyalty, or their preconceptions.   People such as the owner, Brady Anderson, Buck Showalter, etc., might have paid attention to analytics when it reinforced their beliefs and ignored them at other times.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

Isn't it possible though that moves were made that went against the recommendation of the analytics department in some cases?   Cashner, Davis, Tillman, etc?  I think it's very possible that we had a fractured chain of command and murky division of roles such that some decisions were made by people who probably did not pay much attention to analytics, at least when the analytics disagreed with their gut, their loyalty, or their preconceptions.   People such as the owner, Brady Anderson, Buck Showalter, etc., might have paid attention to analytics when it reinforced their beliefs and ignored them at other times.

i think it's entirely possible. Buck seems much more like an "eye test" kind of guy (than an analytics guy) to me and Brady was clearly in way over his head. And I'm sure whatever credibility Duquette had with ownership was squashed after the Blue Jays debacle. The inmates were clearly running the asylum at that point. 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

Isn't it possible though that moves were made that went against the recommendation of the analytics department in some cases?   Cashner, Davis, Tillman, etc?  I think it's very possible that we had a fractured chain of command and murky division of roles such that some decisions were made by people who probably did not pay much attention to analytics, at least when the analytics disagreed with their gut, their loyalty, or their preconceptions.   People such as the owner, Brady Anderson, Buck Showalter, etc., might have paid attention to analytics when it reinforced their beliefs and ignored them at other times.

Tillman and Cashner weren't really devastating moves. Cashner more or less lived up to the contract - and Tillman was a one year deal.

The bad move was Davis - and it's pretty much the general consensus that Peter Angelos decided to do that himself.

[luismatos4prez]

Cashner or Vargas would be fine Kevin Millwood style deals. Collin McHugh would be nice if the Houston connection carries any weight. I imagine reclamation type SPs won't want to come to Baltimore.

I do wonder if they still have interest in chasing glove first ML contracts like Yolmer Sanchez, Kevin Pillar, or Billy Hamilton. They'd make the year more pleasant since I don't want to see Stevie Wilkerson starting every day if someone gets hurt. Or Mancini in the outfield.

Means, Cobb, Cashner, Woj, Akin is a good rotation for me this year. 

Sisco, Mancini, Alberto, Iglesias, Sanchez, Hays, Hamilton, Santander, Nunez is a good defensive lineup. 

3 ML contracts and $10M more is a pipe dream though I'm assuming.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Vargas is running on fumes and will be 37 years old. Better off to gamble on a AAAA type or younger established pitcher coming off injury trouble.

[OriolesMagic83]

13 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

Cashner or Vargas would be fine Kevin Millwood style deals. Collin McHugh would be nice if the Houston connection carries any weight. I imagine reclamation type SPs won't want to come to Baltimore.

I do wonder if they still have interest in chasing glove first ML contracts like Yolmer Sanchez, Kevin Pillar, or Billy Hamilton. They'd make the year more pleasant since I don't want to see Stevie Wilkerson starting every day if someone gets hurt. Or Mancini in the outfield.

Means, Cobb, Cashner, Woj, Akin is a good rotation for me this year. 

Sisco, Mancini, Alberto, Iglesias, Sanchez, Hays, Hamilton, Santander, Nunez is a good defensive lineup. 

3 ML contracts and $10M more is a pipe dream though I'm assuming.

Baltimore is a good destination for pitchers who don't have a chance at starting just about anywhere else.  Is a contending team giving Cashner 30+ starts?

[sportsfan8703]

Picking up a vet like Cashner that can eat 150+ IP is bigger than just the role Cashner fills. It allows us to slot everyone else in roles that are more conducive to success. If we sign Cashner, that’s one less trip through the rotation where we’re scrambling to cover innings, need to worry about piecing together a start. 

The more innings we get out of our rotation, then the more 1 IP type relievers we can carry. If not, we might have to cut bait sooner than usual on typical relievers like Fry, Armstrong, Phillips, Carroll, Sulser, Kline, etc....

Cashner isn’t a sexy FA name, but what’s sexy about losing 100+ games?  Cashner isn’t meant to move the needle, he’s meant to provide stability. That’s it. 

Edited January 28, 2020 by sportsfan8703

[wildcard]

The problem with Cashner is that he earned 8m in salary last year plus 2m in performance bonus plus 1.5m in sign bonus paid in January.   That is 11.5m in the last year.  And the O's still owe him 1.5m in signing bonus next January.   

It a little hard to get him to sign a 2M contract this season after earning big last year.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The problem with Cashner is that he earned 8m in salary last year plus 2m in performance bonus plus 1.5m in sign bonus paid in January.   That is 11.5m in the last year.  And the O's still owe him 1.5m in signing bonus next January.   

It a little hard to get him to sign a 2M contract this season after earning big last year.

Two million is two million more than zero.

Unless he actually wants to retire the O's are competeting against what he made last year, they are competing against what other teams will pay this year.

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Two million is two million more than zero.

Unless he actually wants to retire the O's are competeting against what he made last year, they are competing against what other teams will pay this year.

I think he will get more than $2 mm.    Admittedly I haven’t paid a lot of attention to what comparable pitchers have gotten this winter.    I see Ivan Nova got only $1.5 mm, while Brett Anderson got $5 mm plus $2 mm in incentives.   Kendall Graveman got $2 mm without pitching last year.   I’ll guess Cashner gets in the $3-4 mm range, maybe with some incentives.   

[Frobby]

Just came across this:   https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/01/could-search-for-rotation-help-lead-os-back-to-andrew-cashner.html

[wildcard]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think he will get more than $2 mm.    Admittedly I haven’t paid a lot of attention to what comparable pitchers have gotten this winter.    I see Ivan Nova got only $1.5 mm, while Brett Anderson got $5 mm plus $2 mm in incentives.   Kendall Graveman got $2 mm without pitching last year.   I’ll guess Cashner gets in the $3-4 mm range, maybe with some incentives.   

Do you see the O's spending 3-4m on Cashner?

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you see the O's spending 3-4m on Cashner?

Can’t say.    They spent $3 mm on Iglesias, and Elias has been pretty consistent in saying he might sign a free agent pitcher.   But obviously it would be more than they spent on a FA pitcher last year.    I’ll say the odds are less than 50/50 that they’ll pay $3 mm+ for a free agent pitcher (whether Cashner or somebody else), but I wouldn’t completely dismiss the possibility.