Sounds like Henderson and Hernaiz are likely to play in Aberdeen this year

[Frobby]

 

Quote

Because of the banquet’s location, fans wanted to know which players from the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and short-season Single-A Aberdeen could play for the Shorebirds in 2020.

“We’ll see,” Elias said. “I think most of the roster here at Delmarva is going to be the guys that you saw in Aberdeen and I think a lot of players that were on the GCL roster are probably going to return to extended spring training and maybe go to Aberdeen to start the year.

“Two of our higher-profile picks from last year who spent all year in the GCL were Gunnar Henderson (second round), a high school kid we took out of Alabama, and a kid named Darell Hernaiz (fifth round) from El Paso, Texas. Another high school player. And both of them had really nice debuts. But they’re both really young kids.

“They were, like, 17 years old out of the draft, kind of raw, and we’re going to have to wait and see in spring training if they’re in a position to come here or whether they’ll maybe spend the year in Aberdeen like Adam Hall did before he came here. But I look at that Aberdeen roster and it looks like we’ve got a good lineup and good pitching staff coming here next year.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/01/leftovers-from-shorebirds-hot-stove-banquet.html#

[Tony-OH]

It would be disappointing if they weren't able to make a full season club, but they were both pretty young. I know there is a new thought that it's more important to be in camp environment, but I still believe the best development occurs with getting PAs. It won't be the worse things in a world of course, but the best high school prospects typically are sent to full season clubs nowadays.

I'd definitely be excited if both of them were able to make the Delmarva team out of spring but with Ortiz and Welk probably heading there, maybe they just don't see enough PAs and with them being both still 18 years old at the start of the season, they may just think the jump is too big.

[DirtyBird]

Lame

[jrobb21613]

Was really hoping to get see a lot of Gunner at Delmarva this year. Hopefully he makes a real tough decision with a good spring.

[ChuckS]

I fully expect Henderson and Hernaiz to start in Aberdeen.  The organization has been conservative with placements/promotions and they have even preferred to start the advanced college guys in Delmarva. 

I would not be surprised if even Rutschman started in Delmarva. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I fully expect Henderson and Hernaiz to start in Aberdeen.  The organization has been conservative with placements/promotions and they have even preferred to start the advanced college guys in Delmarva. 

I would not be surprised if even Rutschman started in Delmarva. 

It would be shocking and a horrible decision.  That would on course for just taking a prime year of that man's earning potential away from him for no good reason.

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

It would be shocking and a horrible decision.  That would on course for just taking a prime year of that man's earning potential away from him for no good reason.

I could see him in Delmarva until mid May and then spending most of the season in Frederick with a late season promotion to Bowie.  The fact that he struggled in Delmarva in limited at bats last season emboldens my prediction. 

Of course, they could start him in Frederick.  But I've seen Elias quoted using the "nothing to lose" justification for conservative placements.  

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I could see him in Delmarva until mid May and then spending most of the season in Frederick with a late season promotion to Bowie.  The fact that he struggled in Delmarva in limited at bats last season emboldens my prediction. 

Of course, they could start him in Frederick.  But I've seen Elias quoted using the "nothing to lose" justification for conservative placements.  

What would cause you to think that?  He's an advanced college bat.  It makes no sense to start him in Delmarva.

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What would cause you to think that?  He's an advanced college bat.  It makes no sense to start him in Delmarva.

I’d be disappointed if Rutschman started lower than Frederick, for a number of reasons.    But I’ll let Rutschman prove this spring that he merits a higher placement than that.     It would have been nice if he’d hit well at that level last year, in which case we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.     But he didn’t.    You can write that off as a very small sample coming off a bout with mono, but it still leaves a little doubt that hopefully gets extinguished this spring.    

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d be disappointed if Rutschman started lower than Frederick, for a number of reasons.    But I’ll let Rutschman prove this spring that he merits a higher placement than that.     It would have been nice if he’d hit well at that level last year, in which case we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.     But he didn’t.    You can write that off as a very small sample coming off a bout with mono, but it still leaves a little doubt that hopefully gets extinguished this spring.    

Shouldn't be any doubt.  He was coming off a long season, mono, the Orioles making him a dog and pony show at the minor league affiliates.  I heard of no issue with his approach.  His three years at college should outweigh his stint in Delmarva and his first spring training.

[interloper]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Shouldn't be any doubt.  He was coming off a long season, mono, the Orioles making him a dog and pony show at the minor league affiliates.  I heard of no issue with his approach.  His three years at college should outweigh his stint in Delmarva and his first spring training.

Man you are so ready to kill the O's the SECOND they make a development move you don't agree with for Rutschman.. lol. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Man you are so ready to kill the O's the SECOND they make a development move you don't agree with for Rutschman.. lol. 

Do you think playing at three levels while recovering from mono was good for his development?  

I don't think it did any real harm but I don't think his development was foremost in mind.

[hoosiers]

Would love to see these two make it to Delmarva, but it seems such a long shot especially for a fifth rounder like Hernaiz.  Both are very young for there ages.  There has to be very little history of HS fifth rounders starting in full season ball the April after being drafted.  I really like both picks a lot.

[hoosiers]

The talent and readiness of a player to handle a level should be made on a individualized basis.  I do not have a preconceived structure of advancement and usually am among the more aggressive promotion guys on this board. If H&H are ready to develop and contribute at Delmarva, that would be great.  Just saying, among fifth round HS draft picks, I believe it is fairly rare to see them play regularly at Delmarva in their first full season after being drafted.  I can't think of any and I can think of plenty of examples of HS guys taken in the fifth round or higher who didn't make it to Delmarva (Henson, Adams, and many more).

Xavier Avery did in his age 19 season playing the full season at 2.5 years below the league average age to an OPS under 650 and a 4:1 K/BB ratio.  From same draft, LJ Hoes, third round HSer, also made it to Delmarva also 2.5 years below league average age with an OPS of .617.  Rom is a good pitching example of a HSer who did very well at Delmarva.

I think a better historical case can be made for the higher pick, Henderson.

[hoosiers]

Historically speaking HSers drafted in the fifth round overwhelmingly do not get to full season ball after being drafted.  Those draft picks have been evaluated on an individual basis and assessed to play in a lower league. I see nothing wrong with pre-judging the potential assignment of a player based on those drafted before him. 

I mean, maybe someone should advocate the possibility that Hernaiz should start in Frederick or Bowie?  And I would reply, if the assessment of his talent and readiness results in an assignment to Frederick or Bowie, that would be awesome, but historically speaking his draft position suggests such an evaluation is highly, highly unlikely - bordering on an impossibility.  And would you then replay, "well, it an individual evaluation, so the outcome is not pre-determined and is limitless?"

It would be great if the evaluation of Hernaiz deemed him ready for Delmarva, but his draft position suggests such an evaluation would be unusual.

Not looking for a fight … always looking for an engaging discussion.  I hope you are well.