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I think the other shoe is falling (Guthrie)

bgfield

By bgfield
in Orioles Talk

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Good and bad signs.

The K rate is up, which is good.

The BB rate is also up...That is bad but it is only 3.17 over his last 3 starts, so its not like it is horrible,

His HR rate has jumped way up and that will start to balance out to where it should be.

Not sure what his BABIP is right now as a starter but i would bet it isn't under 220 anymore.

The good news is some of the luck is getting out of the game...The bad news is without that luck, he isn't looking all that great.

I thought he could be going through a dead arm period after his last start...I thought the extra rest would actually do him good but obviously it didn't matter.

I start to wonder if he has any injury at this point as well...Didn't notice what he was throwing tonight(velocity wise) though.

No need to get too worried yet but another bad start or 2 and you have to really start questioning if this is the begininng of the end for him, as a guy you want to rely on.

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oriole_way Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

oriole_way

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Someone mentioned that the radio team said that he was not throwing as hard tonight. I believe that was also mentioned his last start.

True, false?

If this is indeed the case, then I wonder why his velocity has dropped off? Dead arm period? Injury?

I thought I heard Palmer say before the All star Break that the Orioles were not going to alter their rotation because of the break, thereby giving every starter 3 extra days rest. Then they decide to reshuffle and pitch Guthrie and Bedard after the break. I don't know if it would have made a difference but I wished they had stuck with their original plan. Bedard is on pace to easily throw more than 200 innings this year (a feat he has yet to accomplish) and Guthrie is also on pace to set a career high in IP this year. It's not like we are fighting for a playoff spot and need to squeeze out an extra start from them.

With respect to tonight's game, Guthrie was definitely hit hard tonight, but Gibbons did him no favors out there in LF.

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sector7g Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

sector7g

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This is just one bad start that doesn't concern me at all. What does concern me is this comment from Guthrie, posted on the MLB.com site.

"I looked at a few pitches at what I'd say was a pretty good effort and looked up and saw an 89 [on the board]. Usually, whenever I try to throw the ball as hard as I can to overpower a guy, I see [95 or 96]."

That's gotta scream injury.

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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

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I think a bit of Guthrie's good fortune is starting to even out, but I still think he'll be a good starter. He's not a #1 or #2, but I think he can be a very solid (and just as importantly, very cheap) middle of the rotation starter for the next few years. He'll have some rough patches, and I'd expect a few more bad starts if his arm is getting into a "dead arm" phase which might be the case with the lack of velocity last night, but I think overall he still will be a very effective pitcher. I still don't think he'll be a front of the rotation type of guy like Bedard is though.

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33rdst All-Star

33rdst

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The problem with Guthrie tonight was that Jay Gibbons is awful. If we had an average left fielder Guthrie would have gotten out of the first inning giving up only a few runs. Did you see Gibbons' non jump on the Thome home run? How about the non dive on the Mackowiak double?

That said, Guthrie admtted after the game that his velocity was down about 7mph.

The guy has been dominant all year even with the lack of run support.

He deserves the benefit of the doubt.

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tywright Perennial All-Star

tywright

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This is just one bad start that doesn't concern me at all. What does concern me is this comment from Guthrie, posted on the MLB.com site.

"I looked at a few pitches at what I'd say was a pretty good effort and looked up and saw an 89 [on the board]. Usually, whenever I try to throw the ball as hard as I can to overpower a guy, I see [95 or 96]."

That's gotta scream injury.

They weren't showing every pitch last night for some reason. His slider was around 80-82 and his change up was 81 when he did throw it. His FB on the otherhand was around 89-91 when i did see it. If he regains his typical 95-97FB, he should be fine, which is why he will not be looked at as a #4/5 starter.

And before we start jumping off the bandwagon, remember he has been very unlucky his past few starts. On the other hand, he has been lucky in the 1st half.

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Crazysilver03 Hangout Grand Counsel

Crazysilver03

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It's the beginning of the end for Guthrie. The other shoe IS falling.

Guthrie is a mediore 4-5 starter. That's all. Dice-K will pass him in R.O.Y. voting as Guthrie proves he is just okay.

Guthrie was never ahead of Matsusaka in ROY voting. It was a given that Daisuke was going to win the ROY this season.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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The problem with Guthrie tonight was that Jay Gibbons is awful. If we had an average left fielder Guthrie would have gotten out of the first inning giving up only a few runs. Did you see Gibbons' non jump on the Thome home run? How about the non dive on the Mackowiak double?

That said, Guthrie admtted after the game that his velocity was down about 7mph.

The guy has been dominant all year even with the lack of run support.

He deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Shall we talk about all of the good luck he has had as well?

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