Mussina and Palmer

[ledzepp8]

You appear to be using each pitcher as a representative of the team and the era and the ownership he played for or in. That seems to be Roy's argument, too. If a player's final judgment is based on that, what do we say about Brian Roberts, and Nick Markakis, and Jeremy Guthrie, and for that matter Cal Ripken. Cal chose to play the last eight or nine years of his career for Peter Angelos.

While this may be a good point when comparing some players, I don't think it works for Palmer and Mussina. I mean it's not like Mussina hasn't been in the playoffs 9 times and been in the WS twice. I think when comparing good players, it's entirely appropriate to compare their playoff history...at least after taking into context the teams they played for.

I'm surprised to see this kind of logic from you, Roy. There are many pitchers who "played a factor" on 3+ World Championship teams, who were nowhere near as good as Mike Mussina.

Roy's taking a little heat for his comments, but I don't think his point was to just compare Mussina's or any player's lack of playoff success to just any random player who won a WS...like Scott Brosious. He was comparing two good pitchers and saying that Palmer comes out ahead because he helped win 3 WS, while Mussina hasn't.

[nadecir]

According to WARP3,

Palmer did allow less homers by a pretty good rate(.95 to .69)

The home run rate advantage for Palmer can be explained by the eras in which Mussina and Palmer pitched too. Mussina pitched with the DH in smaller ballparks with the use of performance enhancing drugs aiding the sluggers.

Not extending Mike Mussina was maybe the worst move that Angelos made during the free agency period. I really believe that Mussina would have extended with the Orioles if they had offered him a reasonable extension. If you remember, Mussina even gave the Orioles a hometown discount when he signed an extension in 1997. He even took criticism from the MLB Player's association for signing that contract in 1997.

Here's a quote from Mussina during the 2000 season after which he declared free agency and signed with the Yankees:

“I want to stay in a place where I'm comfortable and with a team that has a chance to win,” he says. “For my first 10 years, that was in Baltimore, and I certainly hope my next 10 years are in Baltimore, too. Hopefully we can work it out.”

Here's the chronology of the contract negotiations involving Mussina:

1999: G.M. Frank Wren discussed the parameters of a deal with the pitcher's agent, Am Tellem for a five year, $55 million dollar extension. Angelos nixes this deal.

March 27 ,2000: Angelos modifies his five-year contract proposal to Mussina, bumping offer's total value from $50 million to $60 million. Offer also includes about $2 million a season deferred without interest.

August-September, 2000: Orioles owner Peter Angelos withdraws modified six-year, $72 million contract offer to Mussina after pitcher calls it "the same thing" and his agent rejects the offer.

Oct. 27, 2000: Files for free agency on first day of filing period.

Nov. 6, 2000: Angelos says he would not match another team's bid of $15 million a year for Mussina.

Nov. 14, 2000: Yankees, Mets and Red Sox emerge as leading contenders to sign Mussina.

Nov. 24, 2000: Yankees prepare six-year, $87 million offer to Mussina. Orioles raise offer to six years, $78 million.

Nov. 30, 2000: Yankees sign Mussina for six years, $88.5 million.

Angelos remained defiant even after Mussina's departure, telling The (Baltimore) Sun, "Contrary to what some of our critics are saying, we know what we're doing."

[Old#5fan]

Here's another interesting comparison. How did the two pitchers do in comparison to the other starters on their own teams? This has its biases and issues, but helps to even the playing field when comparing teams across eras, and of varying support from defense/scoring.

Jim Palmer led the O's in wins seven times.

Mussina has led his teams in wins seven times (including 2008).

Palmer led the O's in ERA 10 times.

Mussina 12.

Palmer led the O's in strikeouts six times.

Mussina nine.

Palmer played on eight postseason teams.

Mussina nine, although a few of those were on wildcard teams that didn't exist in Palmer's time.

On teams of roughly similar quality Mussina has been the dominant pitcher on the staff more often than Jim Palmer.

I think that your attempt in making this comparison is significantly skewed by the fact you simply weren't around to know how good the other Oriole starters were during Palmer's era. In comparison, had you been around you would have realized that Mussina was essentially surrounded by scrubs or vastly inferior Oriole starting pitchers in comparison to Palmer. This is so obvious it really shouldn't even have to be pointed out to you. It really is not great accomplishment for Mussina to lead the Orioles during his tenure in most categories. The other starters weren't all that much. Palmer had some excellent Orioles starting pitchers to compete with. Not so much with Mussina.

[Malike]

If I had to pick Palmer or Mussina in their primes with game 7 of the series on the line, I wouldn't feel bad about flipping a coin and whoever won, sending them out there.

[Frobby]

According to WARP3, Moose has been worth 9 wins or better 5 times....Palmer 4 times.

They each were over 10 wins once.

Moose had an 8.9 win season and Palmer 8.8.

Moose has also been better late in his career.

Career WARP3:

Moose: 131.3

Palmer: 99.6

And that is with Palmer pitching 400 more innings.

Moose has struck out almost 600 more batters in 400 less innings...His career K rate is about 7. Palmer's was just over 5.

Moose's career walk rate is about 2....Palmer's was about 3.

Moose's career K/bb ratio is 3.58...Palmer's was 1.68.

Palmer did allow less homers by a pretty good rate(.95 to .69)

Of course Palmer had a bunch of 20 game seasons and threw well over 200 IP many times(as has Moose) but that was in a different era of parks, 4 man rotations, no DH for some of his era, etc.....

And of course, the number of GGers and the great teams Palmer was on certainly helps.

I bet Moose would have been a better pitcher in Palmer's era than Palmer would be in Moose's era.

And let's not forget that Palmer believes Moose was better and its like Palmer has an issue with talking about himself.

I agree with what you wrote in bold here. However, the same point applies to the other statistics you cited that favors Mussina. For example, strikeouts are much more common now than when Palmer pitched, so the fact that Mussina has a higher K/9 is not that important.

You also omitted the fact that Palmer allowed far fewer hits per innings pitched than Mussina. If you are going to cite BB rate, you have to look at hit rate, too.

I think at the end of the day, you can put aside the stats. There was a period of time, probaby 5+ years, where if you had asked any group of baseball fans who was the best pitcher in the American League, a significant majority would have said Jim Palmer. There was never a time when a majority of fans would have said Moose was the best pitcher in the league. Not ONE of the best, but THE best.

[ledzepp8]

Palmer played on eight postseason teams.

Mussina nine, although a few of those were on wildcard teams that didn't exist in Palmer's time.

Well to be fair, and without looking, if there was a wildcard in those days Palmer probably plays on more postseason teams.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with what you wrote in bold here. However, the same point applies to the other statistics you cited that favors Mussina. For example, strikeouts are much more common now than when Palmer pitched, so the fact that Mussina has a higher K/9 is not that important.

Is there any proof of this?

You also omitted the fact that Palmer allowed far fewer hits per innings pitched than Mussina. If you are going to cite BB rate, you have to look at hit rate, too.

And why do you think this is? Can;t have anything to do with the GGers behind Palmer could it? Wasn't Palmer a flyball pitcher?

[DrungoHazewood]

I think that your attempt in making this comparison is significantly skewed by the fact you simply weren't around to know how good the other Oriole starters were during Palmer's era. In comparison, had you been around you would have realized that Mussina was essentially surrounded by scrubs or vastly inferior Oriole starting pitchers in comparison to Palmer. This is so obvious it really shouldn't even have to be pointed out to you. It really is not great accomplishment for Mussina to lead the Orioles during his tenure in most categories. The other starters weren't all that much. Palmer had some excellent Orioles starting pitchers to compete with. Not so much with Mussina.

I think that your attempt to discuss any aspect of baseball is significantly skewed by the fact that you simply refuse to alter your beliefs in the face of evidence to the contrary.

[Lucky Jim]

Here's another interesting comparison. How did the two pitchers do in comparison to the other starters on their own teams? This has its biases and issues, but helps to even the playing field when comparing teams across eras, and of varying support from defense/scoring.

Jim Palmer led the O's in wins seven times.

Mussina has led his teams in wins seven times (including 2008).

Palmer led the O's in ERA 10 times.

Mussina 12.

Palmer led the O's in strikeouts six times.

Mussina nine.

Palmer played on eight postseason teams.

Mussina nine, although a few of those were on wildcard teams that didn't exist in Palmer's time.

On teams of roughly similar quality Mussina has been the dominant pitcher on the staff more often than Jim Palmer.

I have trouble believing they played on teams of roughly similar quality.

1. This will be the first time Mussina has led the Yankees in Wins.

2. The teams that Mussina led in ERA - with the O's - won: 74, 78, 79, 98, 88, 71, 63, and 89 games respectively. He has led the Yankees in ERA four times. But he's rarely - except maybe this year - been the best pitcher on the Yankees. Which leaves a few years in the mid-to-late 1990s when Mussina was the best pitcher on a great team.

3. In Mussina's 9 Orioles seasons (when he racked up the majority of your above accomplishments) the Orioles won 725 games. In Palmer's first 9 seasons (not counting the 1967 season he missed) the Orioles won 864 games. In other words, Mussina's 8 best ERA seasons, and team-leading wins seasons came for teams that were - on average 81-81. Palmer's on the other hand, came on teams that average 96 wins.

4. This doesn't even take into account the fact that these teams were built differently. Being the best pitcher on a team that slugs its way to victory is different than being the best pitcher on a team built on pitching.

I'm actually a little surprised at this analysis from you, Drungo. You've stocked the accomplishments so that Mussina's years as the best pitcher on mediocre teams APPEARS to be the same as Palmer's years as the best pitcher on the best team in baseball.

[nadecir]

I think at the end of the day, you can put aside the stats. There was a period of time, probaby 5+ years, where if you had asked any group of baseball fans who was the best pitcher in the American League, a significant majority would have said Jim Palmer. There was never a time when a majority of fans would have said Moose was the best pitcher in the league. Not ONE of the best, but THE best.

I am not sure this argument is compelling. Maybe Mussina pitched in years where there were more good pitchers in the league.

Take a look at Palmer's Cy Young seasons for example:

1973, ERA+ 156

1975, ERA+ 169

1976, ERA+ 130

Compare to Mussina's three best seasons:

1996, ERA+ 163 (finished fourth in the Cy Young voting)

1992, ERA+ 157 (finished fourth in the Cy Young voting)

1995, ERA+ 145 (finished fifth in the Cy Young voting)

Mussina's performances should not be graded based on whether there were other great pitchers in the league in the years Mussina pitched.

[ledzepp8]

I think that your attempt to discuss any aspect of baseball is significantly skewed by the fact that you simply refuse to alter your beliefs in the face of evidence to the contrary.

To be fair to OldFan...I think he has a point (it had to happen sooner or later). Mussina didn't play with the same caliber of pitchers as Palmer did. So I don't think it's fair to compare how many times each led their respective teams in Wins, ERA or Strikeouts. I mean when did Palmer ever pitch along side of the likes of Sidney Ponson, Scott Erickson, Juan Guzman, and Jason Johnson among others?

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree with what you wrote in bold here. However, the same point applies to the other statistics you cited that favors Mussina. For example, strikeouts are much more common now than when Palmer pitched, so the fact that Mussina has a higher K/9 is not that important.

True, but relative to league averages Mussina had a higher K rate.

You also omitted the fact that Palmer allowed far fewer hits per innings pitched than Mussina. If you are going to cite BB rate, you have to look at hit rate, too.

That's directly attributable to the defense behind Palmer.

Not only that, but the league averaged .69 hits per nine more in Mussina's time than in Palmer's. Put them in the contexts of their leagues and Mussina is less than a quarter of a hit per nine innings behind Palmer - without considering defense.

I think at the end of the day, you can put aside the stats. There was a period of time, probaby 5+ years, where if you had asked any group of baseball fans who was the best pitcher in the American League, a significant majority would have said Jim Palmer. There was never a time when a majority of fans would have said Moose was the best pitcher in the league. Not ONE of the best, but THE best.

The majority of fans don't make a distinction between defense and pitching, nor do they take into account the context in which two players played.

Palmer is the best pitcher the Baltimore Orioles have ever had, but if he'd pitched in almost any other context or for any other team his accomplishments would not be as highly thought-of.

[Tony-OH]

According to WARP3, Moose has been worth 9 wins or better 5 times....Palmer 4 times.

They each were over 10 wins once.

Moose had an 8.9 win season and Palmer 8.8.

Moose has also been better late in his career.

Career WARP3:

Moose: 131.3

Palmer: 99.6

And that is with Palmer pitching 400 more innings.

Moose has struck out almost 600 more batters in 400 less innings...His career K rate is about 7. Palmer's was just over 5.

Moose's career walk rate is about 2....Palmer's was about 3.

Moose's career K/bb ratio is 3.58...Palmer's was 1.68.

Palmer did allow less homers by a pretty good rate(.95 to .69)

Of course Palmer had a bunch of 20 game seasons and threw well over 200 IP many times(as has Moose) but that was in a different era of parks, 4 man rotations, no DH for some of his era, etc.....

And of course, the number of GGers and the great teams Palmer was on certainly helps.

I bet Moose would have been a better pitcher in Palmer's era than Palmer would be in Moose's era.

And let's not forget that Palmer believes Moose was better and its like Palmer has an issue with talking about himself.

Palmer has four Cy Young's, Mussina has none. Case closed....

Also, I don't think Mussina has the heart that Palmer ever had. Palmer was a warrior who's career was cut short because he was abused by a baseball establishment that didn't understand things about pitch count and innings on young pitchers.

Palmer wanted to be the ace and he wanted the ball in big games. Mussina never wanted to be a leader or an Ace and preferred to be second or third fiddle.

Mussina has been a very good pitcher over his career, but in a big ball game, I know which one I'd want on the mound in any era.

[Tony-OH]

True, but relative to league averages Mussina had a higher K rate.

That's directly attributable to the defense behind Palmer.

Not only that, but the league averaged .69 hits per nine more in Mussina's time than in Palmer's. Put them in the contexts of their leagues and Mussina is less than a quarter of a hit per nine innings behind Palmer - without considering defense.

The majority of fans don't make a distinction between defense and pitching, nor do they take into account the context in which two players played.

Palmer is the best pitcher the Baltimore Orioles have ever had, but if he'd pitched in almost any other context or for any other team his accomplishments would not be as highly thought-of.

Palmer was a first time Hall of Famer. I highly doubt it was only because he pitched for the Orioles.

[Frobby]

I have trouble believing they played on teams of roughly similar quality.

1. This will be the first time Mussina has led the Yankees in Wins.

2. The teams that Mussina led in ERA - with the O's - won: 74, 78, 79, 98, 88, 71, 63, and 89 games respectively. He has led the Yankees in ERA four times. But he's rarely - except maybe this year - been the best pitcher on the Yankees. Which leaves a few years in the mid-to-late 1990s when Mussina was the best pitcher on a great team.

3. In Mussina's 9 Orioles seasons (when he racked up the majority of your above accomplishments) the Orioles won 725 games. In Palmer's first 9 seasons (not counting the 1967 season he missed) the Orioles won 864 games. In other words, Mussina's 8 best ERA seasons, and team-leading wins seasons came for teams that were - on average 81-81. Palmer's on the other hand, came on teams that average 96 wins.

4. This doesn't even take into account the fact that these teams were built differently. Being the best pitcher on a team that slugs its way to victory is different than being the best pitcher on a team built on pitching.

I'm actually a little surprised at this analysis from you, Drungo. You've stocked the accomplishments so that Mussina's years as the best pitcher on mediocre teams APPEARS to be the same as Palmer's years as the best pitcher on the best team in baseball.

I don't get your point. Why does the fact that Mussina pitched on some mediocre teams diminish what Mussina did on those teams? Lord knows, if he had been pitching on better teams, he would have won significantly more games.

I also don't understand your statement that although Mussina has had the lowest ERA on the Yankees four times, he has rarely been the best pitcher on the Yankees. I'd certainly make the case that Mussina was the Yankees' best pitcher in 3 of those 4 years (2001, 2003 and this year). Clemens won more games in 2001 and Pettitte won more game in 2003 despite having significantly higher ERAs, because they had outrageously good run support in those years. That doesn't make them the better pitchers.