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Would you move the O's to the NL if you could?


davearm

Stay or go?  

191 members have voted

  1. 1. Stay or go?

    • No, I'd keep the O's in the AL
    • Yes, I'd move the O's over to the NL

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Because the goal isn't to be an upper tier NL team, the goal is to win the World Series. I would bet that many NL owners don't want to be "just good enough" they want to field the best team as possible.

They may not be caught up in quite the same arms race now, but my point was that those big dollar NL teams have the potential to stifle competition just like the Yanks and Sox do. At this point, yes, the AL East is far out in front, but there is no reason to believe that this is the way it will always be.

THis may be true, but there is little incentive for teams to spend way above what they need to be a favorite in the division. I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong when it happens. And I'd love to see more organizations reaching their full potential. Better product for all of us to enjoy!

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THis may be true, but there is little incentive for teams to spend way above what they need to be a favorite in the division. I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong when it happens. And I'd love to see more organizations reaching their full potential. Better product for all of us to enjoy!

Why are you equating spending with reaching full potential?

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Why are you equating spending with reaching full potential?

I'm not. I'm stating that spending in relation to the assets available to you is a very strong indicator as to whether or not you have maxed out on potential value.

A quick and dirty example: I set a payroll budget and am still $5mio below it. If Player A can be had for 1 year and $2mio and Player A is an upgrade over Player X (who is currently on the roster) I should pick up player A. Suppose now that I already consider my team to be better than anyone else in the division. Should I still pick up player A?

Is my focus to get to the playoffs with a good team or truly strive to have the best possible team I can put together? I submit that the competition in the AL East tends to require the latter, while generally the competition elsewhere in baseball is such that the former is generally the point of focus.

Put another way, the focus of AL East teams is the same as every other ML team. The difference is that in order to win the AL East you generally have to be one of the best teams in baseball.

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It's an unpopular opinion to vote "yes" but I did.

The ultimate goal is to win.

I agree completely. Who cares about the quality of the games? Let's not only escape the NYYs and Boston, but all other MLB teams. Why go halfway? When the going gets tough, the tough get going. The O's should opt for a minor league -- the Eastern League would be a good choice.

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I tried posting this earlier, but my power and cable went out shortly before I could hit the submit button.

Well I sure hope you aren't a scientist with methods like that. You chose to look at the beating up on each other factor and saw that the winning percentages don't change a whole lot. Thats fine, but you can't then just plug those numbers into other divisions that you haven't done the same for. Give a treatment to one group and you have to do it to the other.

As I said earlier, if you play a whole bunch of bad teams you are bound to have a higher winning percentage. You have to look at the "beating up on each other" factor in the AL East as well as the "eating up divisional foes" in the other divisions. Otherwise you bias the results, which may have been your point, considering your stance in the debate.

Anway, here are the division leaders and their winning percentages if you take away their divisional games.

Chi Sox- .511

Angels -.615

Mets- .546

Cubs- .618

Dodgers- .476

Three out of the five teams benefit from playing their divisional adversaries. (That is, they have lower winning percentages outside the division.)

Final results:

The Rays would be leading every other division with the .622 number you gave.

Same with the Red Sox and their .628.

The Blue Jays (.544) would be leading the AL Central, NL West, and be effectively deadlocked with the Mets.

The Yanks (.535) would be leading the AL Central and NL West.

I didn't have any preconceived notions coming into this and didn't take a stand one way or the other in the debate you were having with Drungo and

others.

After looking at this though, the fact that culmulatively the Jays and Yankees would be division leaders in half the other divisions in baseball does suggest that yes, they are among the best (ie top 5-7) teams in baseball.

Since we're talking about biasing results... what you've done is you've created a self-fulfilling prophecy.

With the unbalanced schedule, almost by definition the division leaders get to the top by being successful against their division rivals. It'd be nearly impossible to win your division with a losing intra-divisional record.

Naturally, then, they'll be hurt the most by taking away the games that vaulted them into the division lead to begin with. Your figures reflect this perfectly.

Meanwhile you can slice and dice the numbers however you want (within reason) for the Yanks and Jays, and you won't get them into anything resembling an outstanding winning percentage. Not looking at interleague games. Not looking at AL games outside of the ALE. Not looking at all games outside of the ALE. And not looking at overall record. Those results all come back in the OK to good range for both clubs.

So where's the evidence that either of these teams would clean up if only they were anywhere else but the ALE?

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You want to beat somebody up so you can tell your buddies how hardcore you are. Do you want to brag about destroying a 5 year old kid or about whooping the ass of a 750 pound gorilla armed to the teeth

The gorilla. But I'd rather not fighting the gorilla if I'm forced to do it with my arms tied behind my back. Beating up the 5-year old is far from my preference, but I like it more than a guaranteed gorilla kick to the groin year after year.

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The AL East is the only division that requires excellence to reach the playoffs.

The 2006 New York Yankees did not require excellence to win the AL East by 10 games before being ousted in four postseason games by the AL Wild Card entrant.

The 2006 Minnesota Twins required excellence to take the AL Central over a Detroit Tiger club that represented the American League in the World Series.

The 2006 Oakland Athletics required excellence to hold off the Los Angeles Angels for the AL West title before advancing to the ALCS.

The 2005 Chicago White Sox required excellence to capture the AL Central over a 93-win Cleveland Indian club before sweeping the Boston Red Sox in the postseason enroute to a World Series title.

The AL East is having a spectacular season, but the division otherwise has been less-than-daunting in recent years.

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The 2006 New York Yankees did not require excellence to win the AL East by 10 games before being ousted in four postseason games by the AL Wild Card entrant.

The 2006 Minnesota Twins required excellence to take the AL Central over a Detroit Tiger club that represented the American League in the World Series.

The 2006 Oakland Athletics required excellence to hold off the Los Angeles Angels for the AL West title before advancing to the ALCS.

The 2005 Chicago White Sox required excellence to capture the AL Central over a 93-win Cleveland Indian club before sweeping the Boston Red Sox in the postseason enroute to a World Series title.

The AL East is having a spectacular season, but the division otherwise has been less-than-daunting in recent years.

Well, you are using two years to try and say the AL East has not been overly impressive. 2006, admittedly, was a down year mainly due to a Red Sox collapse that few saw coming (in between world series titles, by the way).

2005 CLE was incredibly unlucky and was one of the best teams in baseball. CHA was incredibly lucky, posting the best record in the AL despite having the 6th best run differential.

I don't have the statistical background or the inclination to spend a couple hours on this. It's interesting to look at various strong runs for the Central and West. However, with BOS and NYA pumping money in the draft as well as into development and their ML roster, it's unlikely you'll see either with bad teams in the near future. Of the rest of the AL teams, only LAA can come close to making that same boast.

Anyway, very good post (green thingy to you!) -- definitely makes me think. I'll still take the AL East over the next five years without a moment's pause. The dynamics have changed over the last decade and BOS and NYA are well ahead of the curve when it comes to utilizing assets, and both already have a headstart in that department as it is.

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However, with BOS and NYA pumping money in the draft as well as into development and their ML roster, it's unlikely you'll see either with bad teams in the near future. Of the rest of the AL teams, only LAA can come close to making that same boast.

The better-run teams are simply taking different paths to excellence. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have incredible resources, but other clubs have found ways to keep AL East without a postseason series win in two of the past three years.

The vast resources reduce the chances that the Yankees or the Red Sox will suffer a losing season, but I could see one or the other finishing below .500 in sometime in the next eight seasons. The aging Yankees are only eight games above .500 as I write.

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The better-run teams are simply taking different paths to excellence. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have incredible resources, but other clubs have found ways to keep AL East without a postseason series win in two of the past three years.

The vast resources reduce the chances that the Yankees or the Red Sox will suffer a losing season, but I could see one or the other finishing below .500 in sometime in the next eight seasons. The aging Yankees are only eight games above .500 as I write.

- BOS won the WS two of the last four years.

- The AL East has won 8 of the last 15 WS.

- The AL East has represented the AL in 10 of the last 15 WS

The Yankees will look drastically different next year than they do this year.

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- BOS won the WS two of the last four years.

- The AL East has won 8 of the last 15 WS.

- The AL East has represented the AL in 10 of the last 15 WS.

Before the Red Sox won the World Series last year, the previous six World Series titles were evenly spread across baseball's six divisions. No division dominates the way the AL East did in the 1990s.

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My preferred, almost realistic solution would be to abolish divisions and go with a balanced schedule in a 16-team AL, with the top four teams making the playoffs.

Most of those teams w/b dead and gone long before the season's over.There's a lot more fan interest if you're fourth, within two places of W/C contention, than if you're 9th or 12th.Attendance w/b better, too.

I want no parts of a balanced schedule. Maybe 19 games against the Yankees is too many, but 14 or 15 wouldn't be.You want those great series in September-games that mean a lot with the title at stake. Just because the Orioles are lousy these days doesn't mean we should give that up just so we can play the Mariners and Indians more.

In the old days, I several times saw the Orioles sit helplessly there and watch the scoreboard in September, with no chance to play the top team. In 1980 we finished two games beyond the Yankees and didn't play them after about mid-August because of their balanced schedule.So, we sat there playing the Rangers and A's in September, the Yankees played the Indians and Tigers, and we couldn't do a thing.

Forget it.

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