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An argument to keep Patterson in 08


biggrthngibbons

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Dunno, I think Bedard said something in his post game interview about how important Ramon is.

You really want to see what Bako's capable of in a full time job? ;)

I realize this is rhetorical but Gawd no! His VORP tells the story! I'll take Javy, fat and sassy over the Bakster. And for the record, I'm not dissing Paul - but rather giving him props as a nice man, father and friend to this green earth! :002_scool:

And now return to local channels for the continuing saga of CPat!

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Does anyone else here think that making the push for Zambrano would be the move to make this offseason?

Not for me, he obvs has great stuff but he is prone to walk a lot of guys and I'd rather get away from that, especially for 15m a season.

Besides which, we should be aiming for more realistic targets, I just can't imagine him signing here with all the offers he will get.

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Patterson simply doesn't hit enough, glove or no glove. You can't afford to carry him as a regular, particularly with left field as weak as it is.

IF he could get on, he's a great threat on the bases-true. IF he could hit some homers it w/b great because he has power-true. The guy's got 5 tool talent but he leaves most of them in the toolbox most of the time.He's sort of the Daniel Cabrera of position players.

However, the hesitancy to overpay for one of the big-name centerfielders when this team doesn't figure to contend for another couple of years is a point well-taken though.Unfortunately, you're dealing with Boras if you want to re-sign Patterson, and you'd overpay anyhow.So what to do?

I'd trade Patterson before the Deadline, either alone or as part of a package. I'd look hard at acquiring a young centerfield prospect in a trade unless you think Markakis or Reimold could do it.(I doubt if Markakis can even though Flanagan once said he could, but who knows? ) In the interim, I'd go w/Payton out there and maybe give Markakis a shot to, just in case he can handle the position after all.

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Does anyone else here think that making the push for Zambrano would be the move to make this offseason?

No way I go after Zambrano this offseason. Pitchers are hard to predict from year to year, and it is better to invest the money into a position player who's stats are easier to project. Not to mention we have a #1 in Bedard, and Zambrano will be moving from NL to AL so expect his 4 ERA (or whatever it is at this point) to bounce even higher. This team needs to invest in some bats, since at this moment we have pitchers who could develop. We have one of the best rotations in the league with more prospects working up the minors, no need to add more problems to the logjam that will create.

If anything, you sign a veteran pitcher to be a #3 or #4 starter, or if the right guy is out there a #2 starter to allow Guthrie to face less talented pitchers.

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I definitely wouldn't mind seeing Ramon go, and wait for Weiters. A stop gap at catcher certainly couldn't hurt, considering Ramon's quick decline.

I would argue, however, that due to our abundance of pitching, an injury to Zambrano, while definitely harmful, definitely would not cripple a rotation that deep.

I wouldn't say Ramon is having a quick decline I'd say he's been banged up this year and has been playing hurt. This comes with the territory for C's. If you can get good value for Ramon it will be because other teams see it this way as well. If they don't, it makes more sense to keep him until Weiters is ready. I'm sure he will be more than serviceable over the term of his contract.

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Although there is a lot of talk about the plethora of centerfielders available via free agency this coming offseason, it just occurred to me that keeping Corey Patterson may very well be our best option. I was teasing my girlfriend that she would have to find a new favorite player since Patterson would more than likely be gone after the season. When she asked why, I said it's because he can't hit. She then said "Well he can still field and run really well..." This got me thinking as to how valuable Patterson's defensive abilities actually are to this team. By referencing Baseball Think Factory, and a recent discussion on Runs Saved/150 games (essentially the defensive answer to Runs Created), Corey is not surprisingly, the best defensive centerfielder in the league today. What is surprising is how bad his replacement would actually be. If we examine what many consider three of the most eligible free agent centerfielders; Rowand, Hunter, and Jones, and take into account the size and length of their expected contracts, and compare them with Patterson, who, at the present time, has very little negotiating leverage with his dismal year at the plate, I have come to the conclusion that resigning Patterson to a two year contract would perhaps be the smartest thing we could do in the offseason.

Patterson, on average saves 14 runs per 150 games (rs/150) over a replacement level centerfielder. Compare this to Torii Hunter, who has 10 rs/150; Aaron Rowand who actually loses 5 runs (-5 rs/150) by just being in centerfield; and Andruw Jones, who, despite his reputation as a very good defensive outfielder, loses 8 runs (-8 rs/150). If you take the runs they save (or lose) into account along with the runs they create at the plate (RC), you could expect Andruw Jones to have an RC around 90-95, but also to lose 8 runs per year in the field, for an actually runs contributed to be around 85 (he's not getting any better defensively). Aaron Rowand can be expected to have an RC around 70, but lose about 5 runs in the field, contributing about 65 runs overall. If we had to sign a big name centerfielder, I would advocate for bringing in Torii Hunter who will have an RC around 80, but will also save 10 runs in the field, contributing around 90 runs per year.

The downfall to all of these players is the contracts they will likely command, and the age they will be when they expire. Rowand and Jones are both 30, and Hunter is 32. All will receive well over $10M per season, and more than likely sign deals that range between 4 and 6 years in length (unless Jones signs a one year deal to bolster his value after this season). Patterson, who is also only 28, can likely be had for a 2 year deal for about $3M per season, and can be expected to create about 60 runs per year at the plate, and save 14 per year in the field, contributing about 70-75 total runs.

So it looks like I'm going to kinda go against the grain on this one, and argue that Patterson is the most attractive option among free agent centerfielders, given what he can be expected to sign for. The money that we were supposed to throw at an overpriced centerfielder, should then be spent on Adam Dunn if he becomes a free agent after the season, or Carlos Zambrano, who would enable us to finally trade Penn/Olson/Cabrera, without worrying about whether or not they will develop into an elite pitcher for another organization.

For the sake of speculation, let's say Dunn remains a Red this season and is not able to become a free agent, and we outbid everyone for Zambrano. Let's also assume we are able to send a package including Dcab, Penn/Ray, and a Fiorentinoesque prospect to Cincy for Dunn (and an extension...), we would be left with a team resembling this:

Lineup:

Roberts, 2b

Markakis, RF

Tejada, SS

Dunn, DH

Millar, 1B

Mora, 3B

Payton/Huff, LF

Hernandez, C

Patterson, CF

Bench: House, Gibbons, Gomez, Payton/Huff

Rotation:

Bedard

Zambrano

Guthrie

Loewen

Olson/Burres

Bullpen:

Walker

Hoey

Olson/Burres

Bradford

Baez :(

(insert 2 minor league/random middle relievers here)

On paper, this looks pretty good... a little thinking outside the box and being agressive with the two big moves, and I think this may be a contender...

Out of curiousity, how do Payton's numbers re; RS + RC compare for CF?
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Patterson simply doesn't hit enough, glove or no glove. You can't afford to carry him as a regular, particularly with left field as weak as it is.

IF he could get on, he's a great threat on the bases-true. IF he could hit some homers it w/b great because he has power-true. The guy's got 5 tool talent but he leaves most of them in the toolbox most of the time.He's sort of the Daniel Cabrera of position players.

However, the hesitancy to overpay for one of the big-name centerfielders when this team doesn't figure to contend for another couple of years is a point well-taken though.Unfortunately, you're dealing with Boras if you want to re-sign Patterson, and you'd overpay anyhow.So what to do?

I'd trade Patterson before the Deadline, either alone or as part of a package. I'd look hard at acquiring a young centerfield prospect in a trade unless you think Markakis or Reimold could do it.(I doubt if Markakis can even though Flanagan once said he could, but who knows? ) In the interim, I'd go w/Payton out there and maybe give Markakis a shot to, just in case he can handle the position after all.

I agree and disagree. CPat is well worth bringing back, and I would- especially if we can get a 2yr deal deal. However, I agree that he is too light a hitter with the cast of Faheys, Paytons, and Gibbonses we've been trotting out to LF over the last 2 seasons (+). CPat? yes. Massive LF upgrade (Crawford or that ilk)? Yes.

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True...But not for any of the FA CFers available.

You should never spend stupidly just to bring in a name guy.

I agree with SG. The only "big names" left are Hunter and Jones. Both will get ridiculous contracts that will hobble whichever organization that extends them. I think Corey Patterson is not our problem. I value defense as much as offense. I remember Paul Blair, and we won a heck of a lot of games with Paul in CF. I would offer CPat a 4 year deal for 28 million now. To me, he is well worth it.

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Not to rain on anybody's parade or anything, but I'm going to be absolutely stunned if Patterson signs more than a one-year deal in the offseason. He'd be leaving way too much money on the table at this point.

Then let that one year deal be with us. I would certainly offer him arbitration. If he's willing to sign a multi year deal, even better. I'd much rather see Patterson in CF than Payton, who doesn't have the same range...

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The Orioles could carry Paul Blair and Mark Belanger in the lineup because they also had power hitters in other places and anywhere between 2 and 4, 20-game winners in the starting rotation.This team doesn't hold a candle to that one.

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Out of curiousity, how do Payton's numbers re; RS + RC compare for CF?

Payton can be expected to be slightly better offensively, creating about 70 runs per season. The only RS numbers I can find for Payton are for him playing right field. which he was slightly better than average saving 4 runs per 150 games. By sliding him over to center, it would seem logical that this number would have to decrease because of the necessity for better range in centerfield. I also believe Payton has a stronger arm, which would be another reason that his RS/150 numbers would be better from RF than center, as a stronger arm is more valuable from right.

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