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An argument to keep Patterson in 08


biggrthngibbons

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The Orioles could carry Paul Blair and Mark Belanger in the lineup because they also had power hitters in other places and anywhere between 2 and 4, 20-game winners in the starting rotation.This team doesn't hold a candle to that one.

What I think you are failing to realize is that runs are runs... whether they are scored or prevented, they are equally as valuable. One of the toughest things to do when evaluating players is to be able to assess a players total offensive and defensive worth. Until recently, when stats like RS and RC were not available, this was almost impossible. We are very lucky to have access to numbers such as these, and we would be foolish to ignore their significance.

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Payton can be expected to be slightly better offensively, creating about 70 runs per season. The only RS numbers I can find for Payton are for him playing right field. which he was slightly better than average saving 4 runs per 150 games. By sliding him over to center, it would seem logical that this number would have to decrease because of the necessity for better range in centerfield. I also believe Payton has a stronger arm, which would be another reason that his RS/150 numbers would be better from RF than center, as a stronger arm is more valuable from right.
So he and CPat in CF would probably be a wash?
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Although there is a lot of talk about the plethora of centerfielders available via free agency this coming offseason, it just occurred to me that keeping Corey Patterson may very well be our best option. I was teasing my girlfriend that she would have to find a new favorite player since Patterson would more than likely be gone after the season. When she asked why, I said it's because he can't hit. She then said "Well he can still field and run really well..." This got me thinking as to how valuable Patterson's defensive abilities actually are to this team. By referencing Baseball Think Factory, and a recent discussion on Runs Saved/150 games (essentially the defensive answer to Runs Created), Corey is not surprisingly, the best defensive centerfielder in the league today. What is surprising is how bad his replacement would actually be. If we examine what many consider three of the most eligible free agent centerfielders; Rowand, Hunter, and Jones, and take into account the size and length of their expected contracts, and compare them with Patterson, who, at the present time, has very little negotiating leverage with his dismal year at the plate, I have come to the conclusion that resigning Patterson to a two year contract would perhaps be the smartest thing we could do in the offseason.

Patterson, on average saves 14 runs per 150 games (rs/150) over a replacement level centerfielder. Compare this to Torii Hunter, who has 10 rs/150; Aaron Rowand who actually loses 5 runs (-5 rs/150) by just being in centerfield; and Andruw Jones, who, despite his reputation as a very good defensive outfielder, loses 8 runs (-8 rs/150). If you take the runs they save (or lose) into account along with the runs they create at the plate (RC), you could expect Andruw Jones to have an RC around 90-95, but also to lose 8 runs per year in the field, for an actually runs contributed to be around 85 (he's not getting any better defensively). Aaron Rowand can be expected to have an RC around 70, but lose about 5 runs in the field, contributing about 65 runs overall. If we had to sign a big name centerfielder, I would advocate for bringing in Torii Hunter who will have an RC around 80, but will also save 10 runs in the field, contributing around 90 runs per year.

The downfall to all of these players is the contracts they will likely command, and the age they will be when they expire. Rowand and Jones are both 30, and Hunter is 32. All will receive well over $10M per season, and more than likely sign deals that range between 4 and 6 years in length (unless Jones signs a one year deal to bolster his value after this season). Patterson, who is also only 28, can likely be had for a 2 year deal for about $3M per season, and can be expected to create about 60 runs per year at the plate, and save 14 per year in the field, contributing about 70-75 total runs.

Cite? Methinks you have misread, I hope. Is this (or an earlier version) from 2006 what you are referencing?

Here are the 2007 uzr numbers through May 31. AFAIK Dial hasn't published 2007 rs/150, which are "guestimates" of UZR.

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Cite? Methinks you have misread, I hope. Is this (or an earlier version) from 2006 what you are referencing?

Here are the 2007 uzr numbers through May 31. AFAIK Dial hasn't published 2007 rs/150, which are "guestimates" of UZR.

The first is the what I was referencing. I know this is a slightly rough estimate, but the rs/150 was in hopes to be able to compare apples to apples, and is the only statistic I am aware of that measures essentially the same thing that an offensive statistic (RC) measures.

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True...But not for any of the FA CFers available.

You should never spend stupidly just to bring in a name guy.

Pretty much. A-Patt might end up being a cheaper answer in CF. He has decent enough power and has shown that he CAN in fact hit. Hes great on the base paths and has been pretty decent in the clutch this year.

If you upgrade First and LF, you can carry Corey.

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Scott Boras is not going to have Patterson take a paycut next season. As such, his salary will be in the $5 million range. We are already carrying one piece of excess baggage at that price, namely Gibbons, we don't need two. Let the Cubs take him back; I'll wave him goodbye.

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If Patterson could get his OBP over .333 and keep it there he would be decent. I love his D.

We should keep Ramon until Weiters is ready. If he's traded who is going to handle this pitching staff? He is a difference maker behind the plate. Who is better all-around than Ramon? IRod? Who else? The list is pretty short people.

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Scott Boras is not going to have Patterson take a paycut next season. As such, his salary will be in the $5 million range. We are already carrying one piece of excess baggage at that price, namely Gibbons, we don't need two. Let the Cubs take him back; I'll wave him goodbye.

Scott Boras does not set the market, demand does. And with a plethora of options in centerfield, supply will be higher, thus making the demand for Patterson lower. Boras may be able to get Patterson the best deal, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee he won't take a paycut

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Scott Boras does not set the market, demand does. And with a plethora of options in centerfield, supply will be higher, thus making the demand for Patterson lower. Boras may be able to get Patterson the best deal, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee he won't take a paycut
He won't get a paycut because his salary range is still significantly lower than the big name free agents.
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In my opinion, they would be a wash at best. That is assuming CPat won't be much better offensively, and Payton won't be much worse defensively in centerfield.

If they are about the same over all why not keep Payton for another year rather than trying to extend CPat. I doubt that you get CPat for less tha 5M.

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