Who do you want at 39?

[Spl51]

Watch everything from 2:20 on. Hitting 97. That change is a 60-70, and his breaking ball flashes plus.

 

[tntoriole]

8 minutes ago, Spl51 said:

Watch everything from 2:20 on. Hitting 97. That change is a 60-70, and his breaking ball flashes plus.

 

He flies open quite a bit...fastball command will be the first and only order of business.  97 doesn’t help hitting the backstop...lol. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Spl51 said:

Watch everything from 2:20 on. Hitting 97. That change is a 60-70, and his breaking ball flashes plus.

 

Thanks for posting this. My quick take.

Arm strength is a plus obviously sitting 94-97, but the fastball is pretty straight and his command is pretty bad, and doesn't seem to be able to pitch to glove side very well. The breaking ball is below average and would need a lot of improvement. 

The change is really good with drop and fade away from lefties. 

Command is overall was well below average and he changed his mechanics a bit on the breaking ball at least once trying to get more bite.

If I could get this kind of arm and get him signed reasonably in the 3rd round I would, but I'd much prefer to go with another college arm like Chris McMahon. 
 

 

[Obando]

I’m hoping the O’s take either Tanner Witt or Masyn Winn at 39, both of which will require over-slot bonuses, but that I think are worth the risk.  The O’s should have the firepower to sign either of them with the presumed savings from the Kjerstad and Westburg picks (yes, I expect Westburg to be under slot as well).  If we go the college pitching route, I am hoping we pick either Logan Allen or Clayton Beeter, both of whom fit the Orioles pitching philosophy very well.  Allen has a longer track record and is less risky, but Beeter has arguably the best curveball in the draft, and a rising 4 seam fastball to boot, although he has an injury history and shorter track record.

[Number5]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Many assume we saved huge money with our 1st round pick.  Wake up and smell the coffee!  All indications are that he was drafted straight up at #2.  No savings!

Perhaps you are right, but I'd hardly say that all indications point to that.

[ISU94]

 

[Greg Pappas]

This is my list of my Top 39 Prospects, posted before the draft:

1		Austin Martin, CF, 21.2, 6' 0", 185, R/ R, Vanderbilt
2		Spencer Torkelson, 1B, 20.8, 6' 1", 220, R/ R, Arizona State
3		Asa Lacy, LHP, 21, 6' 4", 215, L/ L, Texas A&M
4		Nick Gonzales, 2B, 21, 5' 10", 190, R/ R, New Mexico State
5		Zac Veen, CF, 18.5, 6' 4", 190, L/ R, Spruce Creek HS FL
6		Emerson Hancock, RHP, 21, 6' 4", 213, R/ R, Georgia
7		Mick Abel, RHP, 18.8, 6' 6", 190, R/ R, Jesuit HS OR
8		Nick Bitsko, RHP, 18, 6' 3", 220, R/ R, Central Bucks East HS PA
9		Max Meyer, RHP, 21.2, 6' 0", 185, R/ R, Minnesota
10		Reid Detmers, LHP, 20.9, 6' 2", 210, L/ L, Louisville
11		Garrett Mitchell, CF, 21.8, 6' 3", 205, L/ R, UCLA
12		Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, 18.2, 6' 1", 180, L/ L, Harvard Westlake HS CA
13		Ed Howard, SS, 18.4, 6' 2", 185, R/ R, Mount Carmel HS IL
14		Robert Hassell, CF, 18.8, 6' 2", 195, L/ L, Independence HS TN
15		Jared Kelley, RHP, 18.7, 6' 2", 225, R/ R, Refugio HS TX
16		Cade Cavalli, RHP, 21.8, 6' 4", 225, R/ R, Oklahoma
17		Heston Kjerstad, RF, 21.3, 6' 3", 215, S/ R, Arkansas
18		Justin Lange, RHP, 18.7, 6' 4", 185, R/ R, Llano HS TX
19		Chris McMahon, RHP, 21.3, 6' 2", 205, R/ R, Miami
20		Dax Fulton, LHP, 18.6, 6' 6", 220, L/ L, Mustang HS OK
21		J.T. Ginn, RHP, 21, 6' 2", 200, R/ R, Mississippi State
22		Cole Wilcox, RHP, 20.9, 6' 5", 230, R/ R, Georgia
23		Garrett Crochet, LHP, 21, 6' 5", 210, L/ L, Tennessee
24		Tanner Witt, RHP, 17.9, 6' 5", 200, R/ R, Episcopal HS TX
25		Carson Montgomery, RHP, 17.8, 6' 2", 200, R/ R, West Orange HS FL
26		Jared Shuster, LHP, 21.8, 6' 3", 210, L/ L, Wake Forest
27		Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, 21.3, 6' 2", 230, R/ R, South Carolina
28		C.J. Van Eyk, RHP, 21.7, 6' 1", 200, R/ R, Florida State
29		Carson Tucker, SS, 18.4, 6' 1", 175, R/ R, Mountain Pointe HS AZ
30		Jordan Walker, 3B, 18, 6' 5", 220, R/ R, Decatur HS GA
31		Clayton Beeter, RHP, 21.7, 6' 2", 220, R/ R, Texas Tech
32		Jordan Westburg, SS, 21.3, 6' 3", 191, R/ R, Mississippi State
33		Slade Cecconi, RHP, 21, 6' 4", 220, R/ R, Miami
34		Nick Loftin, SS, 21.7, 6' 1", 180, R/ R, Baylor
35		Bobby Miller, RHP, 21.2, 6' 5", 220, L/ R, Louisville
36		Casey Martin, SS, 21.2, 5' 11", 180, R/ R, Arkansas
37		Blaze Jordan, 1B, 17.5, 6' 1", 215, R/ R, DeSoto Central HS MS
38		Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, 17.8, 6' 3", 192, L/ L, Lakewood HS CA
39		Justin Foscue, 2B, 21.3, 6' 0", 201, R/ R, Mississippi State

 

Kelly, McMahon, Fulton, Ginn, Wilcox, Witt, and Montgomery. In that order.  

Here is the page for who is still on the board... highest rated is Kelley at #12.

https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/undrafted

I mentioned this elsewhere, but I agree with @Tony-OH in that I really like the reports and videos on Miami's Chris McMahon. I expect we go pitcher at 39. I don't know why, but McMahon reminds me a bit of Mike Mussina.  Again, I'm not saying he's Mussina, just that I see similarities.

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

This is my list of my Top 39 Prospects, posted before the draft:

1		Austin Martin, CF, 21.2, 6' 0", 185, R/ R, Vanderbilt
2		Spencer Torkelson, 1B, 20.8, 6' 1", 220, R/ R, Arizona State
3		Asa Lacy, LHP, 21, 6' 4", 215, L/ L, Texas A&M
4		Nick Gonzales, 2B, 21, 5' 10", 190, R/ R, New Mexico State
5		Zac Veen, CF, 18.5, 6' 4", 190, L/ R, Spruce Creek HS FL
6		Emerson Hancock, RHP, 21, 6' 4", 213, R/ R, Georgia
7		Mick Abel, RHP, 18.8, 6' 6", 190, R/ R, Jesuit HS OR
8		Nick Bitsko, RHP, 18, 6' 3", 220, R/ R, Central Bucks East HS PA
9		Max Meyer, RHP, 21.2, 6' 0", 185, R/ R, Minnesota
10		Reid Detmers, LHP, 20.9, 6' 2", 210, L/ L, Louisville
11		Garrett Mitchell, CF, 21.8, 6' 3", 205, L/ R, UCLA
12		Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, 18.2, 6' 1", 180, L/ L, Harvard Westlake HS CA
13		Ed Howard, SS, 18.4, 6' 2", 185, R/ R, Mount Carmel HS IL
14		Robert Hassell, CF, 18.8, 6' 2", 195, L/ L, Independence HS TN
15		Jared Kelley, RHP, 18.7, 6' 2", 225, R/ R, Refugio HS TX
16		Cade Cavalli, RHP, 21.8, 6' 4", 225, R/ R, Oklahoma
17		Heston Kjerstad, RF, 21.3, 6' 3", 215, S/ R, Arkansas
18		Justin Lange, RHP, 18.7, 6' 4", 185, R/ R, Llano HS TX
19		Chris McMahon, RHP, 21.3, 6' 2", 205, R/ R, Miami
20		Dax Fulton, LHP, 18.6, 6' 6", 220, L/ L, Mustang HS OK
21		J.T. Ginn, RHP, 21, 6' 2", 200, R/ R, Mississippi State
22		Cole Wilcox, RHP, 20.9, 6' 5", 230, R/ R, Georgia
23		Garrett Crochet, LHP, 21, 6' 5", 210, L/ L, Tennessee
24		Tanner Witt, RHP, 17.9, 6' 5", 200, R/ R, Episcopal HS TX
25		Carson Montgomery, RHP, 17.8, 6' 2", 200, R/ R, West Orange HS FL
26		Jared Shuster, LHP, 21.8, 6' 3", 210, L/ L, Wake Forest
27		Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, 21.3, 6' 2", 230, R/ R, South Carolina
28		C.J. Van Eyk, RHP, 21.7, 6' 1", 200, R/ R, Florida State
29		Carson Tucker, SS, 18.4, 6' 1", 175, R/ R, Mountain Pointe HS AZ
30		Jordan Walker, 3B, 18, 6' 5", 220, R/ R, Decatur HS GA
31		Clayton Beeter, RHP, 21.7, 6' 2", 220, R/ R, Texas Tech
32		Jordan Westburg, SS, 21.3, 6' 3", 191, R/ R, Mississippi State
33		Slade Cecconi, RHP, 21, 6' 4", 220, R/ R, Miami
34		Nick Loftin, SS, 21.7, 6' 1", 180, R/ R, Baylor
35		Bobby Miller, RHP, 21.2, 6' 5", 220, L/ R, Louisville
36		Casey Martin, SS, 21.2, 5' 11", 180, R/ R, Arkansas
37		Blaze Jordan, 1B, 17.5, 6' 1", 215, R/ R, DeSoto Central HS MS
38		Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, 17.8, 6' 3", 192, L/ L, Lakewood HS CA
39		Justin Foscue, 2B, 21.3, 6' 0", 201, R/ R, Mississippi State

 

Kelly, McMahon, Fulton, Ginn, Wilcox, Witt, and Montgomery. In that order.  

Here is the page for who is still on the board... highest rated is Kelley at #12.

https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/undrafted

As I mentioned elsewhere, I really like the reports and videos on Miami's Chris McMahon. I expect we go pitcher at 39.

Interesting, per MLB's rankings, Kelley is the 12th best player, while Kjerstad is the 10th!

[Greg Pappas]

Watch Draft Day 2 on MLB Network, ESPN2 beginning at 5 p.m. ET today.

[Ruzious]

Seems like Cole Wilcox would be hard to pass up.  Mlb.com's mock had him at 19 overall, he looks the part as a long 6'5 fastballer with a slider and developing changeup, and some thought he wasn't far behind Emerson Hancock's talent at GA.  But he doesn't have a big body of work - having missed a lot of 2019 - not to mention what happened in 2020, and he gets to enter the draft despite playing only 2 college seasons.   I guess his lack of innings is going to make whoever picks him take it slow.   

[sevastras]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Thanks for posting this. My quick take.

Arm strength is a plus obviously sitting 94-97, but the fastball is pretty straight and his command is pretty bad, and doesn't seem to be able to pitch to glove side very well. The breaking ball is below average and would need a lot of improvement. 

The change is really good with drop and fade away from lefties. 

Command is overall was well below average and he changed his mechanics a bit on the breaking ball at least once trying to get more bite.

If I could get this kind of arm and get him signed reasonably in the 3rd round I would, but I'd much prefer to go with another college arm like Chris McMahon. 
 

 

Similar feeling. He seems to fall off the mound and has an inconsistent landing.  If he can learn to drive and land consistently I think you will see a velocity increase and better control. Also, his fastball grip looks like a split two seam type of grip but the ball doesn’t move. He might benefit from a change of grips. 
Body type, delivery and stuff remind me of Sidney Ponson. 

[Jammer7]

I like what they have done so far. I had not seen the video of Kjerstad from 2020, and I like what I saw. I have no problem with his swing at all. The leg kick, meh, if it works for him, fine. But he looks like he was recognizing some pitches better. His power is top of the charts to all fields. Westburg is a talented kid whose best days are ahead of him. Not a true comp, but he reminds me some of DJ Lemahieu, with a good bit more speed and athleticism. 

I think they do save somewhere in the neighborhood of 2 million, maybe a bit more, on Kjerstad. That is just a speculative guess. Westburg is probably not much below slot, if at all. Elias said they were looking at some pitchers at 30, but they were selected before they picked, Bitsko perhaps.

So, at 39, I take Fulton. That is not because he is the best player available, though he would have been if healthy. I think he will be over slot, but not as much as Wilcox or maybe Kelley. That might leave him out there for another team to take, so grab him now. Wilcox and/or Kelley will likely be there at 74. Wilcox might be in the top 5 players picked in 2021 in he returns to UGA. His leverage is strong, but not as much of a track record as a starter hurts him a bit.

Chris McMahon is very interesting, and I bet he's gone in round 2. You could do well to go that route, but may lose Fulton. 

Tanner Witt and Masyn Winn are two more high end HS guys that are interesting, but I have not seen much video there.

Cole Henry (LSU) is another college arm I like, though there is a history of elbow issues. He is a sophomore, so he can go back to school. JT Ginn is out there as well.

We don't know what their bonus demands are, but Elias does. This may turn out to be an incredible haul. If they come away with Dax Fulton and Chris Wilcox, I would be elated to have four first round talents.

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Thanks for posting this. My quick take.

Arm strength is a plus obviously sitting 94-97, but the fastball is pretty straight and his command is pretty bad, and doesn't seem to be able to pitch to glove side very well. The breaking ball is below average and would need a lot of improvement. 

The change is really good with drop and fade away from lefties. 

Command is overall was well below average and he changed his mechanics a bit on the breaking ball at least once trying to get more bite.

If I could get this kind of arm and get him signed reasonably in the 3rd round I would, but I'd much prefer to go with another college arm like Chris McMahon. 
 

 

Yeah, that wasn't his best look there. He's a HS kid, and was over-throwing there like many do at PG events. He seemed fluid at first, and then some effort came in. He did telegraph the breaking ball, but that is fixable. The change was solid there, nice depth and fade.

Not much projectability there. Fairly mature physically. He would need to take it slow, but I think this is a kid that Chris Holt would do wonders for. Depends on what his number is.

[Greg Pappas]

Were I betting, I think I'd guess Dax Fulton, HS LHP from OK.

[CarrRun49]

7 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Were I betting, I think I'd guess Dax Fulton, HS LHP from OK.

I hope you're right