2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Fact: At least 4 MLB front offices did not consider Austin Martin to be the BPA for their organization and situation.

Fact: The consensus 1:1 pick from this draft would not have been the 1:1 pick in the previous draft, and may have not even been Top 3.

Fact: The consensus 1:1 pick from this draft was not Austin Martin.

[linedrive]

36 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Baumler must be really, really, really good!

lol. My point being that the more top pitching candidates we have, the more likely we'll find 2-3 that will pan out and take us OVER the top. Baumler could be one of those, but if he doesn't pan out, we don't have a lot left.

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They could sign me for 1.5M, it wouldn't make me talented.

If (they) means Elias, he would have to think you talented enough to be worth 1.5m.   Its his evaluation. 

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

It’s very likely statistically that only one of these guys pans out. From year to year the percentage of players that become an all star from round 1 is about 30%. The number decreases with each round. You highest and best shot is the guy in the 1st round. You pick the best player , get him signed, and then need some luck. They are almost all lottery tickets that don’t pan out. I think passing on Martin lowers the likelihood of getting the best result. If you or @Tony-OH or whomever else don’t agree fine. But the marginal uptick that you get in the 4th or 5th round when the hit percentage is considerably lower is negligible. Plus you’ve traded arguably the highest rated player on some boards for a guy that’s ranked around 10. I don’t understand what is so hard to grasp. 
 

To further answer your question .... the three lottery tickets don’t have the same chance to hit. The guys you could’ve gotten in the 4th or 5th at values likelihood of hitting don’t change much.

The issue people have with your stance is you use words like lunacy or you say the team drafted a .250 hitter. I've said my take on this issue. I liked 5 out of 6 of the picks and like how he decided to take on some high risk, high reward guys in the 4th and 5th rounds when other teams were taking slot 4th and 5th rounders. I'm fine if you disagree nor do I think a differing take on this is luncay. It's just a different opinion and with the way MLB drafts go, it will take years to know who was right so there's no reason to be too upset or too happy right now.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, linedrive said:

I desperately want to love this draft, but I'm sold on the idea that you can't win a Championship without elite pitching. We need to draft guys like a Madison Bumgarner, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and Chris Carpenter in the first round. Teams like the Nationals, Dodgers and Royals all drafted four pitchers this draft, and the Braves, who only had four picks, took three. In my opinion, that's what we should be doing. Sure, we can get to the playoffs by knocking the ball out of the park, but we're not going to go deep into the playoffs or win a World Series without 2 or 3 top starters to carry us to the end. If we don't draft them, where are we going to get them??? Do we have deep enough pockets to outbid NY, LA, Boston, etc.?

This draft was okay, but if Baumler doesn't pan out, I don't like our chances of winning a Championship this decade. 

My educated guess is Elias hopes to build up a stable of position players and then trade for starting pitching that is either ready or nearly ready. Plus, the strength of this organization is in it's pitching prospects with Rodriguez and Hall potential TORs.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he is why was a right handed 1B ranked above him?

We have a winner... Martin has a good hit tool, but his average power limits his ceiling in the power game that is played today. 

[Beef Supreme]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

They could sign me for 1.5M, it wouldn't make me talented.

There are many talented players who sign for less than $1.5MM. Everyone who is signed for $1.5MM is tremendously talented.

Since they would not draft you, your point is moot.

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

There are many talented players who sign for less than $1.5MM. Everyone who is signed for $1.5MM is tremendously talented.

Since they would not draft you, your point is moot.

 

My point was that an arbitrary cutoff, say 1.5M isn't of a lot of value when evaluating the likely impact of draftees.  The poster in question didn't even attempt to provide evidence to support their claim.  Why 1.5M and not 1.2M or 1.7M?

 

[Beef Supreme]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

My point was that an arbitrary cutoff, say 1.5M isn't of a lot of value when evaluating the likely impact of draftees.  The poster in question didn't even attempt to provide evidence to support their claim.  Why 1.5M and not 1.2M or 1.7M?

 

I think that critique is fair. I did not see it that way when I first read it.

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The issue people have with your stance is you use words like lunacy or you say the team drafted a .250 hitter. I've said my take on this issue. I liked 5 out of 6 of the picks and like how he decided to take on some high risk, high reward guys in the 4th and 5th rounds when other teams were taking slot 4th and 5th rounders. I'm fine if you disagree nor do I think a differing take on this is luncay. It's just a different opinion and with the way MLB drafts go, it will take years to know who was right so there's no reason to be too upset or too happy right now.

As mentioned in the other thread.... I think Elias is a bust. I have not been impressed with his trades, signings, and now 2 drafts. Beyond AR whom you or I could’ve drafted. 
 

On the international front it’s definitely improved but there was nowhere to go but up

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

As mentioned in the other thread.... I think Elias is a bust. I have not been impressed with his trades, signings, and now 2 drafts. Beyond AR whom you or I could’ve drafted. 
 

On the international front it’s definitely improved but there was nowhere to go but up

Man, I admire the passion but you're acting like Auburn just took Alabama behind the woodshed.

I wasn't crazy about the start of draft either but I can see the strategy behind it and I actually like the strategy.  I've said it before, I'll say it again, I'd have gone a different route than Kjerstad if not picking Martin to kick this draft off...but that's alright.  Kjerstad has a lot of power and was off to a great start this year, I get it.   And maybe Elias had enough intel to know what it would take to sign him and some of the other options at #2 and all things considered, liked Kjerstad best.

It's still too early to tell about Elias man, try to remove some emotion here and look at this objectively.  He's had two drafts but we really can't start to look at last years draft because the minor league season got wiped out, we don't know if we have any fast risers or not.  He also doesn't have a lot of options to trade from, let's not pretend other teams are breaking down our door to give us quality prospects for our fringe MLB talent.  

So the jury is still out, anyone that doesn't have an axe to grind has to see it that way.  But I will also say that Elias has been aces in regards to making himself available to the media, to the public and to the fans.  IMO, that counts for something. 

[Roll Tide]

45 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Man, I admire the passion but you're acting like Auburn just took Alabama behind the woodshed.

I wasn't crazy about the start of draft either but I can see the strategy behind it and I actually like the strategy.  I've said it before, I'll say it again, I'd have gone a different route than Kjerstad if not picking Martin to kick this draft off...but that's alright.  Kjerstad has a lot of power and was off to a great start this year, I get it.   And maybe Elias had enough intel to know what it would take to sign him and some of the other options at #2 and all things considered, liked Kjerstad best.

It's still too early to tell about Elias man, try to remove some emotion here and look at this objectively.  He's had two drafts but we really can't start to look at last years draft because the minor league season got wiped out, we don't know if we have any fast risers or not.  He also doesn't have a lot of options to trade from, let's not pretend other teams are breaking down our door to give us quality prospects for our fringe MLB talent.  

So the jury is still out, anyone that doesn't have an axe to grind has to see it that way.  But I will also say that Elias has been aces in regards to making himself available to the media, to the public and to the fans.  IMO, that counts for something. 

Didn’t you swear your allegiance to the Rays the other day after the 3rd round? 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Didn’t you swear your allegiance to the Rays the other day after the 3rd round? 

Hey man, I was frustrated and caught up in the moment.

And it wasn't the Rays, it was the Marlins.  Get it together.

[Frobby]

There’s a lot of hubris in this thread.    Be humble.    It’ll be three years at least before we get an idea as to whether Elias was right to pass on Martin.

Before the draft, I offered the opinion that I’d rather go with the BPA than go underslot and hope for added value later.   Elias went the opposite way.    But IMO he’s not thinking Kjerstad was anything close to the 10th best player in the draft.   He’s thinking Kjerstad is a 4-5 talent who he can get for a no. 10 price.     And that’s a rational thing to do, if you believe that.    
 

Personally, I’d still have preferred to get Martin.   I like his skill set.     But Elias may well be proven right, and we’ll see.  

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

There’s a lot of hubris in this thread.    Be humble.    It’ll be three years at least before we get an idea as to whether Elias was right to pass on Martin.

Before the draft, I offered the opinion that I’d rather go with the BPA than go underslot and hope for added value later.   Elias went the opposite way.    But IMO he’s not thinking Kjerstad was anything close to the 10th best player in the draft.   He’s thinking Kjerstad is a 4-5 talent who he can get for a no. 10 price.     And that’s a rational thing to do, if you believe that.    
 

Personally, I’d still have preferred to get Martin.   I like his skill set.     But Elias may well be proven right, and we’ll see.  

The problem as I said a few posts ago.... I really haven’t liked the outcome of the trades, signings, or the draft. He’s improved the scouting and international departments, but it’s easy considering that both were poor under PA’s decision making. It’s easy to see that the problems weren’t likely previous GMs.