Five things we’ve learned about Elias after two drafts

[weams]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

If you look back at the "sure things" the O's have picked in the pitcher position, it hasn't been great. Bundy and Gausman were about as sure as they come. Oops! Rodriguez was famously thought to be a reach and here he is beating down the door as one of the better pitching prospects in the game.

Picking position players is safer for myriad reasons but one of the best upsides is they stay healthy and you can trade them for pitchers who are already established or close to being established. 

All that and Elias and crew have very specific things they look for in pitchers. That factors in pretty heavily. I also tend to think that our position player stock in the farm system is preeeetttty weak. Much weaker than our pitching stock, honestly. So I think we're trying to load up on position players to raise the overall talent level of the farm. 

Our MiLB talent has been so incredibly mediocre that it’s like Don Buford was in charge of the farm.  
 

It needed a revamp and housecleaning   
 

The pitching has been pretty good. 

[weams]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

True. Part of it is certainly that we Orioles fans are desperate for an ace. We haven't seen one since Mussina or, if you're feeling generous, Bedard. Which is crazy!

 

But that's honestly why I feel like going position player-heavy is refreshing. Let's stop trying to find the mythical ace. Let's go trade for someone else's instead lol. 

Like the Pirates did. 

[HowAboutThat]

OK, riddle me this. Pitching is generally more valuable than hitting. If our logic is that we will trade for someone else’s pitching, Won’t that pitching be far more expensive than if we had drafted it ourselves?

 A solid number three with three years before free agency is going to cost a ton, and be expensive to boot, because his current team has already used his inexpensive years. 

But good hitters who are not strong defensively are not uncommon, and are therefore probably less valuable.

I do not understand This logic, at least in the event that I am correctly describing it.

[Roll Tide]

Five things I learned about Elias after 2 draft classes.

I don't like his draft strategy!

I predict we will be looking for a new GM in a few years

 

 

[now]

50 minutes ago, Philip said:

Pitching is generally more valuable than hitting.

Other than the adage, "Good pitching beats good hitting," that's the first I've heard of that. Do any stats support it, in term's of player-for-player comparisons, WAR, etc.?

The flaw in your logic (and MacPhail's) is that there's so much attrition while you're trying to develop your homegrown pitching. Even if the hitter you draft is slightly less valuable than a pitcher, three years down the road you'll have most of your hitters intact, and half your arms blown out or under the knife. My guess is that pitchers' performance is more variable as well, thus more risky. But I don't have evidence for that. Anyone?

[Number5]

40 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Five things I learned about Elias after 2 draft classes.

I don't like his draft strategy!

I predict we will be looking for a new GM in a few years

 

 

Math.

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Math.

Huh?

[Number5]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Huh?

Read your post.  Five?  

[weams]

53 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Math.

1 Elias is in charge. And some of us don't like that.

2 He has a room or a zoom room where people talk a different language and evaluate players far differently than we are used to. 

3 He understands that other teams get to pick too.

4 He has a process, an evolving process. He is not doing what everyone did five years ago.

5 He has been burned by pitching.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

1 Elias is in charge. And some of us don't like that.

2 He has a room or a zoom room where people talk a different language and evaluate players far differently than we are used to. 

3 He understands that other teams get to pick too.

4 He has a process, an evolving process. He is not doing what everyone did five years ago.

5 He has been burned by pitching.

He needs to understand our hitters with contact issues won't get the kind of help they got in Houston. 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

OK, riddle me this. Pitching is generally more valuable than hitting. If our logic is that we will trade for someone else’s pitching, Won’t that pitching be far more expensive than if we had drafted it ourselves?

 A solid number three with three years before free agency is going to cost a ton, and be expensive to boot, because his current team has already used his inexpensive years. 

But good hitters who are not strong defensively are not uncommon, and are therefore probably less valuable.

I do not understand This logic, at least in the event that I am correctly describing it.

It is hard to know how we self-assess our pitching because our tastes are specific.  Maybe Meyer and Lacy have the wrong spin axis.

Elias did inherit Hall/Rodriguez, and got all pitchers in the Bundy and Villar trades.  They are all meh to us but there must be something we like about them.  The Vanderbilt duo projects as the Top Two in 2021, perhaps the last season the club is in that range.

The Cubs and Astros blue prints were position player heavy.   If we sadly take Mancini off an aspirational 2022 relevant team, credible personnel today look something like:

C Adley, 1B Mountcastle, LF Diaz, CF Hays, RF Hjerstad, DH Santander

P Means, Baumann, Hall, Rodriguez

I feel like if we had picked Lacy, then couldn't not take a Commodore next year, we would have boxed ourselves out of the pitching half of the 2022 FA market, by which time the young core might have earned some help.

[AnythingO's]

I think Frobby nailed it, they absolutely trust their analytic process. They believe they got a #2 that everyone else had around 10. KC talked to him at #4 and passed on Martin too. Only time will tell if they were right but I miss the minors season already.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

Read your post.  Five?  

I was responding to the thread title. One says it all! I’ve been very unimpressed with the trades, player acquisitions, and drafts. The international scouting is better. But under PA there was no where to go but up.

[HowAboutThat]

4 hours ago, now said:

Other than the adage, "Good pitching beats good hitting," that's the first I've heard of that. Do any stats support it, in term's of player-for-player comparisons, WAR, etc.?

The flaw in your logic (and MacPhail's) is that there's so much attrition while you're trying to develop your homegrown pitching. Even if the hitter you draft is slightly less valuable than a pitcher, three years down the road you'll have most of your hitters intact, and half your arms blown out or under the knife. My guess is that pitchers' performance is more variable as well, thus more risky. But I don't have evidence for that. Anyone?

I don’t disagree with that, but you missed my most salient point, which is that the only pitchers who would even be on the trade block are at the point, or almost at the point, where their cost is close to their value. The team trading the player will have already taken advantage of the inexpensive years, even if the player still has two or three years remaining. That’s why the example was a number three that is entering his arbitration years: No team is going to trade a legitimate number one( yes it has happened, But it can’t be expected and the price would be exorbitant) And no team is going to trade an excellent pitcher who is still pre-arbitration( except us, I guess...)That means we’ll be paying a whole lot for a past that did not benefit us.

Think of a typical number three pitcher, entering his final pre-arb year, And ponder what that pitcher would cost for us, Not just in Prospect return but in salary, as he enters his final three years before free agency. The former team laughs because they got three minimum wage years from a #3, AND a prospect haul, and WE get three extremely expensive years( If he continues to produce ) and just lost a pocket full’o prospects.

Also, bear in mind that the past couple of regimes, whether you like their results or not, Did not have the benefits that our current regime has, And their pitching choices weren’t necessarily optimal.

Finally, yes, attrition claims many an arm, and that is why you draft lots of arms. 

Again, I admit that the guys know more than I do, but the caveats I have mentioned sure do seem legitimate.

[HowAboutThat]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Frontline pitching is the toughest thing to draft.   Name the teams with 3/5 of a top homegrown rotation.   Name the teams with the best rotations in baseball.   How many are homegrown?    The old Oakland A's did it with Mulder, Hudson, and Zito.   Like a perfect storm.    It doesn't happen very often.   Or maybe it does and someone will point it out to me.     The O's had Palmer, Flanagan, McGregor, and Boddicker.    That was pretty impressive but Palmer was going out as Boddicker was coming in.   

Although I don’t disagree with you, I think it’s beside the point. We can’t afford superstar pitchers In the last couple of years before free agency. We probably can’t afford average pitcher, especially if we aren’t going to emphasize defense. We HAVE to draft pitchers. If there’s only a 10% success rate, well we need to draft 10 pitchers. This time, it seems we’ve drafted only one, but he might be a winner. Here’s hopin’.