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Five things we’ve learned about Elias after two drafts

Frobby

By Frobby
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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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59 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How does Mayo compare to Gunnar Henderson?

It’s obvious Mayo, and the O’s, used Gunnar’s money as a negotiating point.  We gave Mayo “Gunnar money”.

2019 - Gunnar #42 overall. Signed for $1.771 million. Ranked #27 pre-draft by MLB.com

2020 - Mayo #103 overall.  Signed for $1.75 million. Equivalent to #42-43 overall slot money. Ranked #132 pre-draft by MLB.com

In 2019 Henderson was ranked as the 27th best prospect by MLB Pipeline.  The O's took him with the 42nd pick.

In 2020 Mayo was ranked as the 132nd best prospect by MLB Pipeline. The O's took him with the 103rd  pick.

Mayo was only paid that high because the O's wanted to keep him from going to college.  103 pick slot value is 566K.

Henderson 42nd pick in 2019 slot value was 1.77m.  O's paid him 2.3m

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Frobby
Frobby

1.   The guy has cojones of steel.    He’ll pick the guys he likes no matter what the consensus is on them.    2.    He’s not afraid of a small sample size if the analytics support an upward tren

interloper
interloper

If you look back at the "sure things" the O's have picked in the pitcher position, it hasn't been great. Bundy and Gausman were about as sure as they come. Oops! Rodriguez was famously thought to be a

Tony-OH
Tony-OH

Our first Elias hater. Somebody has to be first, so congrats!

sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
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22 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Gunnar had a chance to stay at SS with a likelihood of 3B.  This kid has a chance to stay at 3B with a likelihood of corner OF-1B.  Seems like this kid has more raw power at this stage.

Ok. Thanks for the reply. So we should probably thank of Mayo more 1B. After reading your reply I read some stuff on his defense and it seems like his footwork is pretty slow.  So seems like 1B it is. It wouldn’t be the worst, but hopefully he mashes and we find a spot for him. 

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Ok. Thanks for the reply. So we should probably thank of Mayo more 1B. After reading your reply I read some stuff on his defense and it seems like his footwork is pretty slow.  So seems like 1B it is. It wouldn’t be the worst, but hopefully he mashes and we find a spot for him. 

Not sure we should completely tank his positional prospects quite yet. Footwork for the IF and footspeed are not necessarily the same thing. Let's think of him as a 3B/COF whose bat has potential to carry at 1B if needed.

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DirtyBird Hangout Grand Counsel

DirtyBird

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5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Ok. Thanks for the reply. So we should probably thank of Mayo more 1B. After reading your reply I read some stuff on his defense and it seems like his footwork is pretty slow.  So seems like 1B it is. It wouldn’t be the worst, but hopefully he mashes and we find a spot for him. 

I think probably RF. Seems like he has a solid arm.

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HowAboutThat Hangout Grand Counsel

HowAboutThat

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23 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

If he has a lot of up the middle types that can hit, he might be able to trade for some pitching.  

Isn’t that unwise? Good hitters- especially limited good hitters, are common. Good pitchers are not.

The worst kind of trade is young pitching for established pitching, because you’re trading for a past that benefitted someone else. The Archer trade result was dreadful for the Pirates, but at the time was considered a normal high price. Anytime we trade for someone like Archer, we would be paying the same cost or more( because we don’t have any young pitching we can send away) and taking the same risk.

Our own Bud Norris trade was successful for 2014, but then Norris blew up and was released after getting ~9 million in arbitration. And the Houstons benefited from trading Josh Hader to the Brewers, who have enjoyed him ever since.

Stockpiling a lot of slow mediocre defenders who can hit sure seems unwise to me, and if the guys we’ve drafted turn out ok, we HAVE to trade some of them.

Again, I know nothing about the depth of this draft, but trading for established arms is much more expensive and dangerous than drafting them( unless you’re trading for the Scott Feldmans of the world.) Far better to draft and develop. Even if a player busts, the lost money and time is less than that devoted to the guys you give up for the player acquired in a trade, and the risk is the same.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

The kid just graduated from HS - we drafted Ryan Mountcastle out of HS 5 years ago and he wasn't going to start the season in the majors.

Odds are good Elias isn't going to be gaming service time in by the time this kid is ready for the majors.

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HowAboutThat Hangout Grand Counsel

HowAboutThat

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6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

The kid just graduated from HS - we drafted Ryan Mountcastle out of HS 5 years ago and he wasn't going to start the season in the majors.

Yes you’re right, I completely neglected the timelines.

Still, there’s going to be a lot of redundancies at our corner outfield positions, Stewart for one certainly seems to be odd man out at the moment.

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DirtyBird Hangout Grand Counsel

DirtyBird

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5 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes you’re right, I completely neglected the timelines.

Still, there’s going to be a lot of redundancies at our corner outfield positions, Stewart for one certainly seems to be odd man out at the moment.

The goal is to have depth of talent. I think that explains the draft strategy the past two years. We really had no depth and not much talent when Elias arrived.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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52 minutes ago, Philip said:

Far better to draft and develop.

I think we're a little jaded because of the lack of success of Oriole pitchers they've drafted and kept in a very long time.  The most valuable pitchers drafted/kept by the Orioles in this century are Zach Britton, Kevin Gausman, Jim Johnson, Mychal Givens, and John Means.  That list includes three relievers and a guy with 158 career innings.

But, yes, past results are not a guarantee of future failure.

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HowAboutThat Hangout Grand Counsel

HowAboutThat

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37 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

The goal is to have depth of talent. I think that explains the draft strategy the past two years. We really had no depth and not much talent when Elias arrived.

I don’t have any disagreement with that, and I certainly think each needs improvement.

With that in mind, having a bunch of maybe short stops is defensible, God knows we have a bunch of designated hitters and don’t need any more of them.

Maybe Mike Is considering the timeline to Contention and is starting with position players and then we were closer, he will turn his attention to College pitching that is close to being major league ready. That is quite logical. The only pitcher he chose last week is four years away, So that would make sense.

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HowAboutThat Hangout Grand Counsel

HowAboutThat

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32 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think we're a little jaded because of the lack of success of Oriole pitchers they've drafted and kept in a very long time.  The most valuable pitchers drafted/kept by the Orioles in this century are Zach Britton, Kevin Gausman, Jim Johnson, Mychal Givens, and John Means.  That list includes three relievers and a guy with 158 career innings.

But, yes, past results are not a guarantee of future failure.

Now think about the guys we drafted and traded? The only guys who come to mind are Josh Hader, Eduardo Rodriguez, Zach Davies and Tarpley and Brault. The last two didn’t amount to anything, although I think each spent time in the majors and Tarpley was on a New York playoff roster I think.

The others have all been outstanding successes, and each represented a buyers win.

ooooh and Oliver Drake! Can’t forget ol’ Ollie!

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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4 hours ago, Philip said:

Now think about the guys we drafted and traded? The only guys who come to mind are Josh Hader, Eduardo Rodriguez, Zach Davies and Tarpley and Brault. The last two didn’t amount to anything, although I think each spent time in the majors and Tarpley was on a New York playoff roster I think.

The others have all been outstanding successes, and each represented a buyers win.

ooooh and Oliver Drake! Can’t forget ol’ Ollie!

I'm always a little loathe to call Hader a guy we missed on, since we traded him at age 19 just a year after taking a flyer on him in the 19th round, and we weren't the only team to trade him (Houston did, too). Then his success as a stud reliever appeared out of nowhere after two pretty poor stints in AAA with the Brewers. The dude's success is awesome, but it's not like we gave up on a guy that anyone foresaw this from at the time.

Davies and Rodriguez, at least, were guys that had come a lot further along in their development before we kicked them. Brault and Tarpley I don't think anyone should lose any sleep over, they were fringier players even when we moved them and haven't become anything more than run of the mill arms.

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