Grade the Draft

[Oriole1940]

Baseball is something that is very unpredictable.   Just when you think that you have it all figured out,  you do not.   But I do not  think that lumbering DH, 1B , RF types are going to get this franchise to the promised land.  While they are part of the entire puzzle,  they do not usually have the impact an equally talented pitching staff does.  So I would have gone for more pitchers before the Kjerstad types.

[wildbillhiccup]

10 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

- To save resources for development/infrastructure

- To allow for enough pool money to hopefully get five or six players who have a cumulative value better than just hoping Martin works out

 

So not shelling out money for one high end prospect is really going to have a significant effect on their resources for development/infrastructure? I'm sorry, but that's complete BS? 

[wildbillhiccup]

22 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

We basically stole the draft and you don’t even realize it.

So lets look at the Blue Jays, who actually picked the player we should have. They've developed a pretty robust farm system over the last few years so why is Elias "chess play" considered to any better than their GM? I've said it before, but you don't get cute when you have the no. 2 pick. Sometimes I think Elias thinks he's too smart for his own good. 

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So lets look at the Blue Jays, who actually picked the player we should have. They've developed a pretty robust farm system over the last few years so why is Elias "chess play" considered to any better than their GM? I've said it before, but you don't get cute when you have the no. 2 pick. Sometimes I think Elias thinks he's too smart for his own good. 

It’s too soon to know.    I agree the Jays have done a pretty nice job with their farm system the last several years.    For one thing, they weren’t hamstrung in Latin America the way we were.  But they’ve also drafted quite well.   I like Elias and think he will turn us around, but it’s too soon to say how it will all turn out.    Having no minor leagues and a short draft this year certainly doesn’t help.   

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think it’s objectively true that good pitchIng is more valuable than good hitting.  There are 9 pitchers with a career WAR over 100, and 26 over 80.   There are 21 hitters over 100, and 37 over 80.

At the end of the day, run scoring and run prevention are both equally important.    But position players do all the run scoring, while pitcher do only some of the run prevention.    

I do think that having a couple of dominant starters and/or back end relievers gives a team a big leg up in the postseason, when the games are spaced in such a way that you can rely on your best pitchers a higher percentage of the time compared to the regular season.   
 

I don’t know how strong the pitching was in this draft, and we only picked a few guys. It sure seems that until we got to Baumler,  we were choosing stuff that we already have, and we were choosing stuff with acknowledged limitations. I don’t think that any argument can be made that pitching is not our greatest need, And if we trade for it, it’s going to end up being far more expensive than if we drafted it in the first place.

Also, bear in mind that Little emphasis is being placed on defense, and the guys we have gotten recently have not been drafted because they are fast or defensively outstanding, but because they can hit, and not one of our current guys is outstanding on defense(Hays and Santander might be). So even if run prevention is equal to run creation, the guys we have can’t be counted on to prevent an average amount of runs.

[OsEatAlEast]

4 hours ago, Oriole1940 said:

Baseball is something that is very unpredictable.   Just when you think that you have it all figured out,  you do not.   But I do not  think that lumbering DH, 1B , RF types are going to get this franchise to the promised land.  While they are part of the entire puzzle,  they do not usually have the impact an equally talented pitching staff does.  So I would have gone for more pitchers before the Kjerstad types.

I don't know as my eyes may be deceiving me. But Kjerstad in many of the videos I watch makes it to first after contact in just over 4 seconds. I don't think he's as slow as many on this board think he is.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/

Judge for yourself with some of the basehits using a stopwatch. Many of them show when he hits first base from the angle behind homeplate.

Edit: The best one to judge is at 5:28 where he hits a double down the line.

Edited June 14, 2020 by OsEatAlEast

[scOtt]

I'm far from any kind of expert and wouldn't trust it if I did post an opinion.

Tony liked it so I like it. I said "B".

[hoosiers]

9 hours ago, Philip said:

I don’t know how strong the pitching was in this draft, and we only picked a few guys. It sure seems that until we got to Baumler,  we were choosing stuff that we already have, and we were choosing stuff with acknowledged limitations. I don’t think that any argument can be made that pitching is not our greatest need, And if we trade for it, it’s going to end up being far more expensive than if we drafted it in the first place.

Also, bear in mind that Little emphasis is being placed on defense, and the guys we have gotten recently have not been drafted because they are fast or defensively outstanding, but because they can hit, and not one of our current guys is outstanding on defense(Hays and Santander might be). So even if run prevention is equal to run creation, the guys we have can’t be counted on to prevent an average amount of runs.

I have to respectfully disagree with a lot here.  We have a middle of the road farm system (which was weaker when Elias took over) highlighted by two top pitchers and a system which is balanced toward pitchers.  We have few hitters in our system generally and fewer high end hitters.  The only plus hitters drafted into and still in our system before Elias might be limited to Mountcastle and Hall.  We picked up Diaz in trade.  In just two drafts, Elias has added AR, Kjerstad, Gunnar Henderson and Mayo as the only power in the system besides Mountcastle.  We do have several wicked fast defenders in our system from last year's draft with Janvrin and Stowers while AR profiles as a quality defensive catcher.  There is only so much that can be accomplished in two drafts particularly when one draft is five rounds.  

We were a below average system when Elias took over.  I think a lot has been accomplished the last two drafts with Elias simply trying to fill out the system with prospects generally including a focus on power hitters at the top.  

[Roll Tide]

17 hours ago, Philip said:

Every draft has to be given an incomplete, obviously. I mentioned in another comment thread that good pitching is more valuable than good hitting, and it is better to draft many pitchers and hope a few become great than to pay for a pitcher who Has several years of greatness behind him.

With that in mind, I can’t give an A because there must’ve been some fine pitching available for us. However, I don’t know anything about how strong this draft was so sure I give it a B.

Let’s talk again in 3 years.

I think you make a point....but I remember Orioles teams that were anemic offensively. Even though the pitching was respectable they couldn’t muster enough offense to score 4-5 runs a game regularly. So you certainly need balance.

[Just Regular]

11 hours ago, Philip said:

And if we trade for it, it’s going to end up being far more expensive than if we drafted it in the first place.

I'm not sure about this.  Top of your head - who did the Astros give up for Verlander, Cole and Greinke?

We got a Bedard mint back in the day, and paid rather handsomely for Miller at a deadline - maybe those are both seller's wins, but the Astros regime has a few buyer's wins under its belt.  The Astros deep systems helped them close those deals, but they also avoided the risk of their blue-chip draft pick just falling to the attrition gods or Bundy'ing.

I wonder if now might be just the right moment to float Elias a "what did you think of the Miller-Rodriguez" trade in a chat.  He was somewhat in the know when it happened, and its still perhaps a couple few years before his Orioles earn that position.

[sylvester]

Everyone thinks that because Callis or Mayo rate these kids high that they are sure things.   Far from it.  Baseball is the biggest crap shoot when it comes to evaluations.  Fans just take these guys word for it.  They don't watch 50 college games or any high school games or summer league for the high school kids.  They watch a couple of games like the under armor game and look at the stats for the under 18 team.  Thats how they come up with these mock drafts.  Sure they know a little more than the average fan.  For the high school kids they look at the big schools like LSU, Florida and see who signed with them.  They are not finding a kid that signed with Stoney Brook or a Div II team.   The scouts could find that kid if they are scouting another kid.  With football fans watch a lot college football and can get familiar with these players.  Baseball not as many games are televised so its tough to see these kids.  99% of the fans are clueless to most of these prospects unless they are in the college world series.  If 1 out of 6 players has a solid MLB career the draft was a successful.  The orioles have been hitting on first rounders the past 10 years.  Hitting meaning that they make the big team.  Thats all you can ask for.  25% of the first rounders won't make AAA.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

I'm not sure about this.  Top of your head - who did the Astros give up for Verlander, Cole and Greinke?

We got a Bedard mint back in the day, and paid rather handsomely for Miller at a deadline - maybe those are both seller's wins, but the Astros regime has a few buyer's wins under its belt.  The Astros deep systems helped them close those deals, but they also avoided the risk of their blue-chip draft pick just falling to the attrition gods or Bundy'ing.

I wonder if now might be just the right moment to float Elias a "what did you think of the Miller-Rodriguez" trade in a chat.  He was somewhat in the know when it happened, and its still perhaps a couple few years before his Orioles earn that position.

Appel? Aiken?

[Roll Tide]

54 minutes ago, sylvester said:

Everyone thinks that because Callis or Mayo rate these kids high that they are sure things.   Far from it.  Baseball is the biggest crap shoot when it comes to evaluations.  Fans just take these guys word for it.  They don't watch 50 college games or any high school games or summer league for the high school kids.  They watch a couple of games like the under armor game and look at the stats for the under 18 team.  Thats how they come up with these mock drafts.  Sure they know a little more than the average fan.  For the high school kids they look at the big schools like LSU, Florida and see who signed with them.  They are not finding a kid that signed with Stoney Brook or a Div II team.   The scouts could find that kid if they are scouting another kid.  With football fans watch a lot college football and can get familiar with these players.  Baseball not as many games are televised so its tough to see these kids.  99% of the fans are clueless to most of these prospects unless they are in the college world series.  If 1 out of 6 players has a solid MLB career the draft was a successful.  The orioles have been hitting on first rounders the past 10 years.  Hitting meaning that they make the big team.  Thats all you can ask for.  25% of the first rounders won't make AAA.

I think there are scouts all over the place. I think they read the scouting reports. When several of the high school pitchers were selected they knew how fast his fastball was, how many pitches he has, etc. 

They obviously can’t watch 5 rounds of players much less 40 in a regular year.

Teams pay a lot of money to these guys and a ton behind the scenes to their scouts, scouting services, etc.

And more than 25% won’t make triple A. The chances of getting a MLB all star in the 1st round is only around 30%. The percentage go down and then drop completely off the table. 

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I have to respectfully disagree with a lot here.  We have a middle of the road farm system (which was weaker when Elias took over) highlighted by two top pitchers and a system which is balanced toward pitchers.  We have few hitters in our system generally and fewer high end hitters.  The only plus hitters drafted into and still in our system before Elias might be limited to Mountcastle and Hall.  We picked up Diaz in trade.  In just two drafts, Elias has added AR, Kjerstad, Gunnar Henderson and Mayo as the only power in the system besides Mountcastle.  We do have several wicked fast defenders in our system from last year's draft with Janvrin and Stowers while AR profiles as a quality defensive catcher.  There is only so much that can be accomplished in two drafts particularly when one draft is five rounds.  

We were a below average system when Elias took over.  I think a lot has been accomplished the last two drafts with Elias simply trying to fill out the system with prospects generally including a focus on power hitters at the top.  

I don’t really disagree with most of what you said, I think our emphasis is different.

AR Going to be an outstanding catcher, yes, but None of the guys you mentioned as close to the majors, And none of the guys we currently have can be considered even an average defender with the possible exception of Hayes and Santandar.

 My main point is that if you have to trade to fill a need, it is less expensive to trade for a bat then it is to trade for pitching. 

And I’m not complaining about Mike’s strategy, I’ve said many times that I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, even if his moves appear a bit curious.

[Just Regular]

35 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Appel? Aiken?

Barely avoided in Aiken's case, and you are right about Appel.  Your point actually jogged my brain to comp Rocker/Leiter to Appel - I guess if we land Top Two perhaps one last time and chalk holds for another year, we'll see if the FO thinks those guys are Adley Rutschman or Austin Martin.

Certainly for the fun of it, I'm a Kumar enthusiast for the last drafted cornerstone and we start to get to see if Adley/Kjerstad/X can hang with Stras/Harper/Rendon over the rest of their run.  You can't really hope for a FA supplement to go as well as Scherzer, but coming close would help.