FWIW: My thoughts on the O's draft

[Greg Pappas]

Preface: I'm certainly not a draft expert, but someone that tries to read a variety of analysts regarding these prospects.  That doesn't mean Baseball America, Keith Law, MLB Pipeline w/Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, ESPN w/Kiley McDaniel, 2080 Baseball and others are necessarily experts, but quite educated and thorough year after year.  My info comes from those sources, and I get that they are not the end-all be-all.  Hell, by tomorrow, next week or next month I may feel notably better about this draft... rather than just okay about it. 

I was upset by the Kjerstad pick and remain so.  He may well be a good or even very good player for us, and his likely discount allowed us to have more money for other picks, but I'd still rather have had Austin Martin.
I was good with Westburg at 30.
I was not okay with Hudson Haskin at 39.
I was not okay with Anthony Servideo at 74.
I was good with Coby Mayo at 103.
I was happy with Carter Baumler at 133.

Taking Tony's comments into consideration, I kind of look at the O's draft like this:
2. Kjerstad
30. Westburg
39. Baumler
74. Mayo
103. Haskin
133. Servideo

If that first name were Austin Martin, I'd have thought they did a good job, but instead think of it as decent or okay. 

Unlike the NFL Draft it's not set in stone what players will sign for at their slot. So it's difficult to gauge signability. Perhaps the slots will be set in the future, and not guidelines? Hard to say. 

Thus, not knowing signability demands makes doing your own "Here's who I would've taken" exercise shaky- at best.  Still, limiting myself to college juniors and those available at our picks AND were actually drafted (so no Tommy Mace or Seth Lonsway), here goes (player profiles from MLB Pipeline):

2.  Austin Martin, Inf/CF, Vanderbilt
30. Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami (Composite rank #38)

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McMahon was a solid high school product outside of Philadelphia who was No. 100 on MLB Pipeline's Draft Top 200 as the 2017 Draft rolled around. The former three-sport standout (soccer and basketball) slid in the Draft, going in the 33rd round, and opted to go to Miami instead. A knee injury cut short his freshman year, and his sophomore year was up-and-down as the Hurricanes' Saturday starter. But he was one of the best performers for USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team, something that carried over to the start of his junior season.

The right-hander has more than enough stuff to succeed as a starter at the next level. His fastball is up to 95-96 mph consistently, with late action on it down in the zone, and he was up to 98 mph this fall. He knows how to spin a breaking ball, but it gets caught in between being a curve and slider, looking more like the former. He has a very good feel for his changeup that can miss bats and get ground-ball outs.

When he's on, McMahon combines athleticism, stuff, feel for pitching and command to make him a complete package. With an arm action that can be a little deep, he can get flat and gets hit more than he should. He got out front more consistently and didn’t leave pitches up for Team USA and early this spring, solidifying his spot as one of the more solid college arms in the class.

39. CJ Van Eyk, RHP, Florida St (Composite rank #27)

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A high school pitcher in Florida who was on the rise in 2017, Van Eyk missed a chunk of his senior year with arm soreness that all but cemented he'd be heading to Florida State instead of signing. After spending his freshman year pitching out of the bullpen, he made a smooth transition to the Seminoles' rotation as a sophomore and is now near the top of a solid crop of college pitchers in the Sunshine State eligible for the 2020 Draft.

Van Eyk has a solid three-pitch mix that he knows how to use extremely well. He's been up to 95 mph, usually working in the 93-94 mph range, with his fastball and commands it well to both sides of the plate. He really knows how to spin his curveball, a breaking ball with almost 12-to-6 action that has really good late downward bite. He throws it in the upper-70s more often than not, but can add and subtract as needed. His changeup is his third pitch, and would be more effective if it had more sink, but he does throw it with good arm speed to fool hitters.

The Florida State ace is capable of being a complete pitcher because of his willingness to pitch in with his fastball, his ability to throw his breaking ball at any point in the count and his feel for mixing his pitches to keep hitters off-balance, though issues with his command persisted over his first four starts in 2020. His potential as a starter still should have him in consideration in the top two rounds of the Draft.

74. Casey Martin, SS, Arkansas (Composite rank #49)

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Scouts rated Martin as the best high school prospect in Arkansas in 2017, though his bat was considered too raw for pro ball and he went undrafted. He made an immediate impact with the Razorbacks, hitting 13 homers as a freshman to help them reach the College World Series, then slammed 15 as a sophomore to bring them back to Omaha. He's one of the best athletes in the 2020 college crop and is Arkansas' toolsiest prospect since Andrew Benintendi went seventh overall in the 2015 Draft, but a poor start to the shortened 2020 season could drop him out of the first round.

An explosive athlete, Martin offers an exciting combination of power and speed. He records run times that grade from 70-80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, though he's still learning how to translate that quickness into stolen bases. He has the potential to be a 25-25 player but gets overly homer-conscious and his right-handed swing gets too uphill, leading to strikeouts.

If Martin can slow the game down a bit offensively and defensively, he can be a star. His quickness and solid arm strength give him the tools to play a number of positions and perhaps stay at shortstop if he becomes more consistent. He played a fine third base as a freshman and definitely would fit in center field, though he should be able to stay on the dirt.

103. Ian Bedell, RHP, Missouri (Composite rank #74)

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Bedell is an attractive target for clubs that favor youth and performance. He was Iowa's top 2018 prep prospect until he graduated a semester ahead of schedule to enroll early at Missouri, which will make him one of the youngest college players (20 years, 9 months) in the 2020 Draft. After posting a 1.56 ERA as a sophomore reliever last spring, he dominated even more as a starter in the Cape Cod League (0.59 ERA, .383 opponent OPS, 36/3 K/BB ratio) and continued to pound the strike zone in that role this spring.

Bedell's two- and four-seam fastballs sat in the low 90s when he started on the Cape, with sink or run depending on which version he used. He worked more in the upper 80s in cold weather during the truncated 2020 season, but his heater continued to play up because of his command. There's debate as to whether his fading low-80s changeup or his slightly slower curveball is his best secondary pitch, and he also can mix in a mid-80s cutter.

Bedell has a sound delivery and the athleticism to repeat it with ease. He attacks hitters with confidence because he can locate his pitches where he wants. Fellow Missouri hurler T.J. Sikkema rode pitchability and a high floor into the supplemental first round in 2019, and Bedell could take a similar path this year.

133. Bryce Elder, RHP, Texas (Composite rank #138)

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Better known as a golfer for much of his career at Decatur (Texas) High, Elder didn't play baseball as a freshman and was set to attend Howard (Texas) JC until a pair of no-hitters in the state playoffs as a senior helped land him at Texas. A reliever on the Longhorns' 2018 College World Series team as a freshman, he has served as their No. 1 starter the last two seasons. He doesn't light up radar guns but has one of the higher floors among this year's college pitchers, which could land him in the first three rounds.

Elder's out pitch is a quick mid-80s slider that he'll use in any count. He has feel for manipulating the spin on his pitches, which also gives him a distinct curveball that's tight and features more downward break. His sinker sat in the low 90s more often this spring, ranging from 88-95 mph, and he also employs a changeup that can be an average offering but gets a bit firm at times.

Elder provides strikes with all four pitches and they tunnel well together, allowing the sum of his repertoire to play better than its individual parts. He has a strong 6-foot-2 frame and repeats his delivery well, giving him the durability to remain in the rotation. Scouts love his mound presence, which adds to his chances of becoming a No. 4 or 5 starter.

Time will tell whether Elias did a great job, good job, meh job, or poor one this draft.  I'm an O's fan and absolutely want the record to favor his selections when we look back. I'd be happy to be wrong to have doubted him. One thing is for sure... I take this draft thing too seriously. Go Elias/ Go O's! 

[cnmilton]

Greg, I agree with your analysis. I didn't like the top 4 picks at all; would much rather have one of Martin, Lacy, Gonzales, or even Hancock at 1:2.  Imo, a team in full rebuild mode cannot afford to roll the dice on every single pick (even with just 5 rounds).  To me it appears that Elias bought 6 Powerball tickets and is staking the Os future on one of those numbers hitting. 

[Greg Pappas]

5 hours ago, cnmilton said:

Greg, I agree with your analysis. I didn't like the top 4 picks at all; would much rather have one of Martin, Lacy, Gonzales, or even Hancock at 1:2.  Imo, a team in full rebuild mode cannot afford to roll the dice on every single pick (even with just 5 rounds).  To me it appears that Elias bought 6 Powerball tickets and is staking the Os future on one of those numbers hitting. 

Thanks.  I also would have taken a number of other players at #2 over Kjerstad.  We may discover that Martin wanted 8.6+ to sign, and Elias figured that was just not going to work for him. I get that. Elias is a bright guy, so I'd have to say that the powerball analogy seems way off.  Kjerstad is not just another guy, and was legitimately regarded among the top 10 players in the draft.  I suspect he'll be a good RF (or LF) for us. Westburg is another well-regarded bat at either SS or 3B. Getting Baumler and Mayo was where the draft hinges, for me. If they turn out... either one of them... to be good big leaguers, the sting of losing out on Martin will feel much better.

[Three Run Homer]

To me the wild card in this draft is Anthony Servideo.  He was not a prospect at all heading into the season, but he was one of the best players in the NCAA at the time the season ended in March.  Did he make a great leap forward, or did he just have a hot streak?   

[cnmilton]

One of my big problems is all of the college kids drafted have a lot of swing and miss in their games, and all of them struggled until this shortened college season with the bats.  Did they start showing their true potential, or was it the lesser out of conference competition making them look better than what they actually are? Personally, I would prefer guys who can get on base over the home run or strike out players.  

[Just Regular]

When it becomes known, I'd be curious to hear the actual bonuses your 2nd through 6th guys get, plus say regular slot value for Theoretical 1-2 Martin.  The reality of him falling to 5 will cost him some money IRL but not this exercise.

Was our pool 13.7?  If this Group of Six ends up 15+, that's probably about where I'd guess it is an impossible group to land even if the club won most of the negotiations.

[Greg Pappas]

3 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

When it becomes known, I'd be curious to hear the actual bonuses your 2nd through 6th guys get, plus say regular slot value for Theoretical 1-2 Martin.  The reality of him falling to 5 will cost him some money IRL but not this exercise.

Was our pool 13.7?  If this Group of Six ends up 15+, that's probably about where I'd guess it is an impossible group to land even if the club won most of the negotiations.

It still wouldn't accurately reflect where I would have taken them, though I understand where you're coming from. I'd be surprised if they exceeded 13.7. Time will tell.

Austin Martin went 5th.
McMahon went 46th.
Van Eyk went 42nd.
Casey Martin went 87th
Bedell went 122nd
Elder went 156th
 

[hoosiers]

I think the Kjerstad-Martin swap is vastly over-rated by those bad-mouthing the decision.  Partly because two other teams passed on Martin and mostly because Kjerstand is a very, very well regarded prospect.  He was pretty much a consensus top 10 guy.  It's not like we signed a Cadyn Grenier type to a below slot deal, we signed a guy who has made major improvements to his swing and hitting results since last year and outhit Martin and Torkelson on the USA Collegiate National Team and was out-slugging Torkelson this year before the season was shut down.

I would have been fine with Martin and then two of Bitsko, Shuster, Miller, McMahon, Beeter, Van Eyk and Fulton. 

I am fine with how the draft turned out, but the final result was most likely not the best case.  Elias took a shot at other possibilities - in every mock Jordan Walker made it out of the first round.  In half of them, Bitsko made it out of the first round.  We could have ended up with any number of scenarios besides the one that actually happened.  Elias took a chance that resulted in a massive influx of talent and along the way entertained possibilities of multiple other high-end, higher-ranked talents falling to the Os.

[Greg Pappas]

54 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

I think the Kjerstad-Martin swap is vastly over-rated by those bad-mouthing the decision.  Partly because two other teams passed on Martin and mostly because Kjerstand is a very, very well regarded prospect.  He was pretty much a consensus top 10 guy.  It's not like we signed a Cadyn Grenier type to a below slot deal, we signed a guy who has made major improvements to his swing and hitting results since last year and outhit Martin and Torkelson on the USA Collegiate National Team and was out-slugging Torkelson this year before the season was shut down.

I would have been fine with Martin and then two of Bitsko, Shuster, Miller, McMahon, Beeter, Van Eyk and Fulton. 

I am fine with how the draft turned out, but the final result was most likely not the best case.  Elias took a shot at other possibilities - in every mock Jordan Walker made it out of the first round.  In half of them, Bitsko made it out of the first round.  We could have ended up with any number of scenarios besides the one that actually happened.  Elias took a chance that resulted in a massive influx of talent and along the way entertained possibilities of multiple other high-end, higher-ranked talents falling to the Os.

I've read this thing about how two other teams passed on Martin, as if that validates anything. Perhaps Martin was asking for 1st pick slot, which may be may be why the Marlins and Royals passed, rather than talent. We'll never know.
I agree that Kjerstad is well-regarded and stated so earlier in the thread, but I believe the talent gap between he and Martin is significant.  I see Austin Martin as a perennial all-star and Kjerstad as an above average regular with the upside to be even better and make an all-star team a couple of times. Of course we'd have to say that Baumler and Mayo should factor into the equation as well.  Add their careers to Kjerstad and maybe that would show just why this was a great move by Elias. 

Who knows... Elias may have been annoyed with Martin/Boras' asking price and decided to go the underslot route. Again, we'll never know. I can only judge things based on my (very) limited understanding of these prospects and the events that unfolded.  We may find out some important things in the days, months or years to come, shedding light on this draft and why Elias did what he did.

This thread was an opportunity for me to share my thoughts in a manner that (I felt) was done with respect. I finished the OP by saying that I hope that Elias proves out in the end.  I'd LOVE it if this draft is considered a great one years from now and then I'll happily say I was wrong (who am I anyway?) and Go O's.

[GoldGlove21]

If the Orioles selected Kjerstad at lets say 7 when he was the 15th highest rated prospect, nobody would have cared much. The issue is that Elias passed up what was considered 1B in the draft at #2. The decision to not draft Martin to save money for other draft picks makes more sense to me in deeper drafts as that savings could be spread out to sign more than two over slot players. I would rather have them draft Martin, not meet his demands (if he holds firm) and then pick 1:3 next year. I think teams had huge negotiating power this year with guys who were coming from college. I was 99.999% sure the Orioles were landing a top talent here and they reached.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, GoldGlove21 said:

If the Orioles selected Kjerstad at lets say 7 when he was the 15th highest rated prospect, nobody would have cared much. The issue is that Elias passed up what was considered 1B in the draft at #2. The decision to not draft Martin to save money for other draft picks makes more sense to me in deeper drafts as that savings could be spread out to sign more than two over slot players. I would rather have them draft Martin, not meet his demands (if he holds firm) and then pick 1:3 next year. I think teams had huge negotiating power this year with guys who were coming from college. I was 99.999% sure the Orioles were landing a top talent here and they reached.

Most years the perceived gap in talent between 2 and 10 is significantly greater than between 7 and 15.

[Beef Supreme]

8 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

To me the wild card in this draft is Anthony Servideo.  He was not a prospect at all heading into the season, but he was one of the best players in the NCAA at the time the season ended in March.  Did he make a great leap forward, or did he just have a hot streak?   

The word I have heard is that Servideo's glove plays at the MLB level. The question mark is his bat. 

[Jammer7]

The “rankings” that all of us refer to are made by people who are not scouts, aside from Keith Law. Jim Callis, Jon Mayo, the Baseball America crew, etc...they are journalists. They hang out at prep tournaments and showcases and glean information from scouts. They text people and correspond in other ways to gather information given to them by those who form educated opinions. They do a great job disseminating information to the readers and listeners. But opinions vary.

Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal, Brad Ciolek and the rest of the professional scouting staff put a lot of work in this Spring behind the scenes. So did every other team’s staff. Probably not as much info sharing. Maybe even more misinformation than in past years. This was a year where info was particularly proprietary. 

I was surprised at some of the picks, sure. But I am not upset at all. I trust Mike Elias to do right by the Baltimore Orioles. The first four picks were not “sexy,” but Mayo and Baumler seem like they were solid over slot guys. I like their profiles. Guys that we likely would have seen rise if they had played their senior years. They were taken in rounds where the Orioles felt good about the risk after getting their guys earlier who would not have been there in rounds 4-5. 

In fact, all of their college picks were having good or great starts to 2020 as well. The spin has been that they were all about to blow up. We’ll never know about that. Did they all make meaningful development strides in the off season? Should we discount the numbers due to small samples? IDK.

Like every year, we’ll remember to judge this draft in 4-5 years. I feel strongly that Heston Kjerstad was not the 10th best player as I keep reading here. I have him around 4-5. The signability goes into the value, sure. I wanted Austin Martin, or Asa Lacy, but Kjerstad and Veen were next for me. And if Martin, and his agent Boras, wanted 8.4 million, I would pass too in the Orioles situation. Maybe they did not believe in him as an infielder, and not a top shelf CF. Maybe Martin did not want to come to Baltimore, who knows. I think it is certainly possible that when all is said and done, we will get as much production from Kjerstad as we would have from Martin. They just go about it in different ways. 

I welcome the new Orioles to the fold. I look forward to seeing how this draft works out and seeing our boys back on the field. I need them back on the field. 

[Greg Pappas]

11 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

The “rankings” that all of us refer to are made by people who are not scouts, aside from Keith Law. Jim Callis, Jon Mayo, the Baseball America crew, etc...they are journalists. They hang out at prep tournaments and showcases and glean information from scouts. They text people and correspond in other ways to gather information given to them by those who form educated opinions. They do a great job disseminating information to the readers and listeners. But opinions vary.

Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal, Brad Ciolek and the rest of the professional scouting staff put a lot of work in this Spring behind the scenes. So did every other team’s staff. Probably not as much info sharing. Maybe even more misinformation than in past years. This was a year where info was particularly proprietary. 

I was surprised at some of the picks, sure. But I am not upset at all. I trust Mike Elias to do right by the Baltimore Orioles. The first four picks were not “sexy,” but Mayo and Baumler seem like they were solid over slot guys. I like their profiles. Guys that we likely would have seen rise if they had played their senior years. They were taken in rounds where the Orioles felt good about the risk after getting their guys earlier who would not have been there in rounds 4-5. 

In fact, all of their college picks were having good or great starts to 2020 as well. The spin has been that they were all about to blow up. We’ll never know about that. Did they all make meaningful development strides in the off season? Should we discount the numbers due to small samples? IDK.

Like every year, we’ll remember to judge this draft in 4-5 years. I feel strongly that Heston Kjerstad was not the 10th best player as I keep reading here. I have him around 4-5. The signability goes into the value, sure. I wanted Austin Martin, or Asa Lacy, but Kjerstad and Veen were next for me. And if Martin, and his agent Boras, wanted 8.4 million, I would pass too in the Orioles situation. Maybe they did not believe in him as an infielder, and not a top shelf CF. Maybe Martin did not want to come to Baltimore, who knows. I think it is certainly possible that when all is said and done, we will get as much production from Kjerstad as we would have from Martin. They just go about it in different ways. 

I welcome the new Orioles to the fold. I look forward to seeing how this draft works out and seeing our boys back on the field. I need them back on the field. 

Good post. Speaking of Keith Law...

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Keith Law on the Orioles Draft:

Outfielder Heston Kjerstad (1) is a big power bat with some tools, but he’s also a right fielder and has had issues with swinging and missing, enough that I think this pick was a reach at No. 2 with Austin Martin still on the board (among others). If that pick was to save money, rather than a straight preference for Kjerstad, they didn’t take advantage of it at pick No. 30, the first selection of the Competitive Balance A round, where they took Mississippi State shortstop Jordan Westburg, a very good athlete who also strikes out too much and has to work on pitch recognition as well as reducing his leak at the plate. The Orioles took Hudson Haskin (2), an age-eligible sophomore from Tulane who has a very unorthodox swing but raked in 2018 as a freshman, ranking among the leaders in the AAC in OBP and slugging. He’s got a chance to stay in center field thanks to his plus speed, which gives him an above-average regular ceiling. Ole Miss shortstop Anthony Servideo (3) was atrocious on Cape Cod last summer and has a huge swing that has led to a lot of strikeouts even with composite bats. He’s a plus runner but doesn’t have another above-average tool. He did get off to a hot start this spring in nonconference play, beating up on pitching from Xavier, Louisiana-Monroe and Alcorn State.

Coby Mayo (4) is a very tall high school third baseman whose footwork probably pushes him to an outfield corner or first base; he has the swing for power but gets way over his front side and looks like he’ll be vulnerable to offspeed stuff. Carter Baumler (5) was supposed to be a tough sign due to his commitment to TCU; he’s a projectable right-hander with a good body and solid-average velocity with some feel to spin the curveball, but nothing is above-average yet. It feels like the Orioles tried to shave money at the top, but then didn’t target the right players with the savings.
 

Elias is a bright GM with a quality staff and as you said, time will tell how this draft plays out. Hopefully you and others can understand how I would be disappointed that we didn't take Keith Law's (and other's) #1 rated player (Austin Martin) and one lauded as among the best hitters and competitors in the draft in a long time. That idea had me excited.  That's why I'm disappointed. However, in a couple of years we may look back and see that this was a good decision and worked out very well for us.  That's what Elias gets paid to do... make important decisions. Sharing my thoughts was important to me, yet I still support Elias, as you do. 

[Frobby]

Very thoughtful OP, Greg.    It will the interesting to see how much $ the players you would have selected receive, to see if we could have squeezed them all in.   And, it will be fun to look back on this thread in 5-10 years and see how your scenario would have played out, compared to the players we chose.