Early 2021 Top Draft Prospects

[MurphDogg]

46 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law released his initial Big Board, and he has Davis #1, followed by Lawler, Mayer, Rocker, Leiter, Frelick and McLain.

He is not a House guy, has him at #11.

I remain confident that we will have good options at #5. Getting Davis at 5 and if he and Adley both work out, being able to pencil in a good catcher for up to 162 games a year in 2024 would be kind of awesome.

In today's chat about his rankings, Law said that there are rumors that the Orioles may go underslot at #5. If they, like some, see the draft as a 3-4 sure things (as sure as things ever are in the MLB draft) then a crap shoot, there could be merit to that plan.

 

Alex P.

42m ago

 

What’s the latest you’re hearing on Baltimore’s plans? Think they’re likely to go under-slot again with #5?

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Keith Law

4m ago

 

@Alex P. The most common rumor has them going under-slot for someone like House or Ford - Mike Elias has gone out to see a few guys, including, if I remember correctly, Will Taylor? - and I do think they'll pursue a similar strategy, but I'm not convinced they'll do it with a high school bat.

[Can_of_corn]

To me going underslot last year, when you had the largest draft pool makes more sense than doing it this season.

Of course I don't think it is a good strategy in general since the reward for hitting on a top end guy is so extreme.

[MurphDogg]

33 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

To me going underslot last year, when you had the largest draft pool makes more sense than doing it this season.

Of course I don't think it is a good strategy in general since the reward for hitting on a top end guy is so extreme.

If you are sitting there at 5 and you see six guys as interchangeable, why wouldn't you call them and say that you will take whoever agrees to sign for slot minus $1.5 million so you have an extra $1.5 million to offer someone else? The difference between pick #5 and pick #10 is $1.45 million, so whichever of the six player bites on your offer is not even necessarily losing out on any money.

If I was Ford or House and I have lived in Georgia all my life, I might prefer signing with Baltimore for $4.7 million (slot for #5 is $6.18 million) and playing reasonably close to home through all minor league levels and into the majors rather than potentially getting drafted by the Angels at #9 and getting slot value of $4.95 million but being all the way across the country from my friends and family.

[Frobby]

This seems like a good year to be picking at 5, with no clear 1-4 hierarchy.   I’m not a fan of underslot there unless, as MurphDogg suggests, you’ve got several guys bunched together 5-10 or whatever.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

If you are sitting there at 5 and you see six guys as interchangeable, why wouldn't you call them and say that you will take whoever agrees to sign for slot minus $1.5 million so you have an extra $1.5 million to offer someone else? The difference between pick #5 and pick #10 is $1.45 million, so whichever of the six player bites on your offer is not even necessarily losing out on any money.

If I was Ford or House and I have lived in Georgia all my life, I might prefer signing with Baltimore for $4.7 million (slot for #5 is $6.18 million) and playing reasonably close to home through all minor league levels and into the majors rather than potentially getting drafted by the Angels at #9 and getting slot value of $4.95 million but being all the way across the country from my friends and family.

I don't buy that you will have no separation between 5-10.

 

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't buy that you will have no separation between 5-10.

That's fine. You can at least bluff to the prospects that you do. They don't know who you like best.

[Jammer7]

21 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

That's fine. You can at least bluff to the prospects that you do. They don't know who you like best.

I agree, but there will be other teams considering the same players in the picks that follow us. Those conversations will determine the asking price as the draft approaches. Perhaps House and the other high school guys are not good fits for the picks immediately after us. It is interesting, but I trust that if there is a clear talent above all the others that Elias will make the "right" choice. Best value available. If Maier or Lawler falls to us, I would expect Elias to take them and run away laughing at his good fortune.

Obviously, high school hitters like House have more leverage than a college player. It all depends on the player and their representative, but I just cannot see why House would take much of a discount at #5. Maybe $500k or so would be reasonable, or perhaps he really likes the opportunity that lies ahead in Baltimore with things on the upward trend, IDK.

[Can_of_corn]

21 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

That's fine. You can at least bluff to the prospects that you do. They don't know who you like best.

Sure?

I agree that you should try and get the best deal possible.

I just don't agree, in general, with the underslot strategy.  I'd rather have the best possible chance of hitting on a first round pick.

[Jammer7]

The talk of James Wood is intriguing, but that pick has extreme risk/reward profile.  A huge guy at 6'-06" 230 lbs., and BA stated in their recent mock that Wood might be a candidate for 1-1 if not for the swing and miss this Spring. That was a quote from an unnamed scout. There is some speculation that it is prospect fatigue as he did not show so much swing and miss in previous showcases and such.

If they go underslot and take him, he had better hit. If he fails, you guys will eat Elias up. LOL

2021 MLB Mock Draft Version 3.0 (baseballamerica.com)

[Frobby]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure?

I agree that you should try and get the best deal possible.

I just don't agree, in general, with the underslot strategy.  I'd rather have the best possible chance of hitting on a first round pick.

In very general terms, I agree with you.   I do think the strategy makes more sense in a year where the choice at the spot where you are picking isn’t obvious, or if you think the talent at that spot isn’t really as good as in a typical year.    So I wouldn’t say never do it, I’d just say don’t make it a habit.    

In related news, Austin Martin is hitting .181/.344/.303.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

In very general terms, I agree with you.   I do think the strategy makes more sense in a year where the choice at the spot where you are picking isn’t obvious, or if you think the talent at that spot isn’t really as good as in a typical year.    So I wouldn’t say never do it, I’d just say don’t make it a habit.    

In related news, Austin Martin is hitting .181/.344/.303.   
 

Still more hits than Kjerstad. 

[Sports Guy]

Last week, Glenn Clark had Jim Callis on his show.  I heard a few min of the interview and he was talking about the Vandy pitchers.

While I can’t say I would be upset if they took either of them, I can say right now that I hope they don’t.  I think there are a lot of red flags there that give me a lot of pause.

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Last week, Glenn Clark had Jim Callis on his show.  I heard a few min of the interview and he was talking about the Vandy pitchers.

While I can’t say I would be upset if they took either of them, I can say right now that I hope they don’t.  I think there are a lot of red flags there that give me a lot of pause.

Like what?

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Like what?

Up and down velocity...inconsistent command. 
 

They just scare me.  Throwing so hard at young ages all the time.  Just feel arm surgeries are in their near future.

[jabba72]

Jackson Jobe, RH High school pitcher is now ranked 6th on Jim Bowdens list on the Athletic. 1-5 are Leiter, Lawler, Rocker, Mayer and Davis. He calls a Davis a future .270, 20-25 HR catcher, which I was hoping for more. Brady House is 8th, says he doesn't have the same hit tool as Kris Bryant did.