Our best and worst 60-game records of the last two years

[Frobby]

I was thinking about the small sample size we’ll have in 2020, and wondering how well we might do if the cards broke our way, assuming the same level of talent we had the last two years.    To get a handle, I took a look at 2018-2019.

The 2018 team was remarkably consistent in its terribleness.    So far as I could tell, its worst record over any 60 game stretch was 17-43, while its best record was 19-41 (including their “hot” start to the 2018 season!).

The 2019 team varied a bit more.    Its worst 60-game record was 15-45, while its best was 23-37.     

(All of this is from me eyeballing the schedule; it’s possible I missed a hotter or colder stretch somewhere.)

Overall, I don’t see that a fluke scenario where we play .400+ baseball for 60 games has much chance to occur.    It hasn’t happened any time in the last two years, and I think the talent level on this year’s team is probably the lowest it’s been when you factor in the Villar and Bundy trades and Mancini’s illness.     So, put me down for 20-40 or worse.   

 

 

[Tony-OH]

Nice research Frobby, but I think you may have a typo in the first record.

I agree with the sentiments. My sim and evaluation of the current talent on hand suggests this team will be absolutely awful, but the one wildcard in all all of this is the uniqueness of going to a camp and then starting games. I'm sure the Orioles will have intra squad games and such, but it will be interesting to see how teams get their player ready for the short burst of a season.

[Just Regular]

I wonder if the ghosts of the 1899 Spiders will dust off their champagne bottles ala the 1972 Dolphins, in a year where 20 game winner will play different.

For the first time in forever, at least they've got a chance.

*At their .130 Win%, the Spiders are I guess 8-52 on a 60-schedule.

[scOtt]

For another reference, our record for the 1st 60 games out of ST for the last 3 (bad) years:

2017 31-29

2018 19-41

2019 19-41 (again)

[SteveA]

34 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I'm no math wizard but 17-23 is 40 games! I'm guessing the worst stretch was 17-43?

Even if you assume that, I find it hard to believe that our best 60 game stretch that year was 19-41 and our worst was 17-43.  They are too close together.

[SteveA]

6 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Even if you assume that, I find it hard to believe that our best 60 game stretch that year was 19-41 and our worst was 17-43.  They are too close together.

However, I just tried to prove that and could not.  I apologize Frobby I think you are correct.  We really were that consistent in 2018.  Wow 

[VaBird1]

I think a big factor is if they are truly putting the best players out there.  Davis should never play against a lefty (or ever) for example.  There are better options offensively and defensively, I think.

[Moose Milligan]

Odds are we'll have one of the worst records, if not the worst record...this year.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

In 2017 the Dodgers had a run where they went 51-9.  Most years 40-45 wins is the best anyone gets out of a 60-game stretch.

The 1969-71 Orioles never had a 60-game stretch better than 45-15.  Even the 1890s Orioles never had a run better than 46-14.

The 1906 Cubs had three streaks of 52-8 and another of 51-8-1 to end the season.

The '99 Cleveland Spiders had several runs of 4-56.  The '15 A's went 9-50-1. The '16 A's had a 4-56 run. The '19 Orioles' worst was 15-45, which tied the '88 Orioles start to the season.

 

[LA2]

With the concentration of games against Eastern rivals (I've just heard about it, not seen the actual schedule) and the lousy pitching staff (even if Cobb manages to make a dozen starts) and Tony's simulations, put me down for 10 to 12 wins total. We'll be relieved when it's over (but with no one getting credit for the save).

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Nice research Frobby, but I think you may have a typo in the first record.

 

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I'm no math wizard but 17-23 is 40 games! I'm guessing the worst stretch was 17-43?

Yes to both of you, I meant 17-43.    I’ve corrected the OP.   

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, LA2 said:

With the concentration of games against Eastern rivals (I've just heard about it, not seen the actual schedule) and the lousy pitching staff (even if Cobb manage to make a dozen starts) and Tony's simulations, put me down for 10 to 12 wins total. We'll be relieved when it's over (but with no one getting credit for the save).

As I posted elsewhere, the difference in our winning percentage inside the division (.316) and outside (.349) was pretty small last year, and would only amount to about half a win less over 60 games for the current schedule (67% within the division) compared to a normal schedule (47% within the division).    If we only win 10-12 games (which I doubt), it won’t be because of how many games we played against the AL East, it will be because we are a much worse team than last year.     While I think we’re worse, I doubt it’s by nearly that much.   

[SteveA]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I posted elsewhere, the difference in our winning percentage inside the division (.316) and outside (.349) was pretty small last year, and would only amount to about half a win less over 60 games for the current schedule (67% within the division) compared to a normal schedule (47% within the division).    If we only win 10-12 games (which I doubt), it won’t be because of how many games we played against the AL East, it will be because we are a much worse team than last year.     While I think we’re worse, I doubt it’s by nearly that much.   

But ALL of our out of division games are against the NL East, which is composed 40% of really strong teams (Wash/Atl), a pretty good Phillies team, a mediocre Mets team, and one bad team.

It's not out of the question that the Boston Red Sox could be the second worst team we play all season.

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, SteveA said:

But ALL of our out of division games are against the NL East, which is composed 40% of really strong teams (Wash/Atl), a pretty good Phillies team, a mediocre Mets team, and one bad team.

It's not out of the question that the Boston Red Sox could be the second worst team we play all season.

Thanks, I had forgotten that.   I still think the difference compared to a more balanced schedule won’t be that drastic.   

[LA2]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As I posted elsewhere, the difference in our winning percentage inside the division (.316) and outside (.349) was pretty small last year, and would only amount to about half a win less over 60 games for the current schedule (67% within the division) compared to a normal schedule (47% within the division).    If we only win 10-12 games (which I doubt), it won’t be because of how many games we played against the AL East, it will be because we are a much worse team than last year.     While I think we’re worse, I doubt it’s by nearly that much.   

A rare opportunity to disagree with you on a fun prediction! (BTW thanks for the good idea behind this thread.) I think we're much worse than last season. Not only because of the absence of last year's two best hitters (Mancini, Villar) and second and fifth best pitchers (Cashner, Bundy), but also because I'm far from sure that Means, Alberto, and Severino can approximate their 2019 seasons. New blood in the outfield and at SS may help though--we shall see!