9/4 Player Pool - Lowther added

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Isn't that backwards?  If Mountcastle were one of the top prospects in baseball he would have many MLB at bats by 23 or 24.  One of the reasons Elias could leave him in AAA all year last year is that he wasn't running roughshod over the league, yes he's pretty young but he's a 1B/LF/DH with the 40th-best OPS in the IL, 4th or 5th-best on the Tides.

I guess that is why he was MVP of the International League.

One of the reasons Elias could leave him in AAA all last season was the O's were not in contention and Elias was saving Mountcastle service time.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

In order to get him to 5th best, your minimum plate appearances would have to be 90. In order to claim he had the 40th-best OPS, the minimum plate appearances would be 140.

Would you say that Austin Hays led the Orioles in OPS last year?

One player Mountcastle's age or younger had a higher OPS in the IL last year with 200+ plate appearances, Luis Robert (top 3 overall prospect). Austin Riley  (top 40 prospect going into 2019) topped him over 194 IL plate appearances.

You can't use normal qualification standards for a situation like this because a minor leaguer will usually be called up if he plays well.  In the IL only 17 people met the 3.1 PA/G standard used in the majors.  Only 21 players in the whole league appeared in 100+ games.

Don't forget that there were eight players in the PCL aged 22 or younger who all OPS'd at least .902 in 158 or more PAs.  And the 21 major leaguers who had 100+ plate appearances at 22 or younger.

I'd say Hays led the O's in OPS last year if he'd been in a league where all you have to do is hit pretty well for a month or two to get called up somewhere higher.  The best players/prospects in the IL or PCL are rarely going to qualify for the batting title.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I guess that is why he was MVP of the International League.

One of the reasons Elias could leave him in AAA all last season was the O's were not in contention and Elias was saving Mountcastle service time.

You know as well as I do that he was MVP because he was arguably the best prospect in the league who had more than about half season's worth of PAs.  Is there any question whatsoever that someone like Austin Riley would have been the MVP if he'd been left with Gwinnett for 125 games, instead of less than 200 PAs?

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You know as well as I do that he was MVP because he was arguably the best prospect in the league who had more than about half season's worth of PAs.  Is there any question whatsoever that someone like Austin Riley would have been the MVP if he'd been left with Gwinnett for 125 games, instead of less than 200 PAs?

Quote

Your previous post:

Isn't that backwards?  If Mountcastle were one of the top prospects in baseball he would have many MLB at bats by 23 or 24.  One of the reasons Elias could leave him in AAA all year last year is that he wasn't running roughshod over the league, yes he's pretty young but he's a 1B/LF/DH with the 40th-best OPS in the IL, 4th or 5th-best on the Tides.

Two completely different tones.

[MurphDogg]

58 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You know as well as I do that he was MVP because he was arguably the best prospect in the league who had more than about half season's worth of PAs.  Is there any question whatsoever that someone like Austin Riley would have been the MVP if he'd been left with Gwinnett for 125 games, instead of less than 200 PAs?

Riley had the luxury of repeating at AAA in 2020, he had 324 plate appearances there in 2018 with a .282/.346/.464/.810 line in 2019. 

Their overall numbers at AAA were similar, .878 OPS over 518 plate appearances for Riley, .871 over 513 plate appearances for Mountcastle, although nearly two thirds of Riley's at-bats took place when he was a year younger.

I don't accept as a given that Riley would have continued to outperform Mountcastle if he had played at Gwinnett for 125 games.

Over his final 191 plate appearances, Mountcastle's line was .341/.387/.595 while Riley batted .293/.366/626 in his 194 plate appearances at Gwinnett in 2020.

Also, Mountcastle was learning two new positions he hadn't played before 2019 (LF and 1B) while Riley made 101 of his 112 AAA starts at his natural third base position.

 

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You can't use normal qualification standards for a situation like this because a minor leaguer will usually be called up if he plays well.  In the IL only 17 people met the 3.1 PA/G standard used in the majors.  Only 21 players in the whole league appeared in 100+ games.

Don't forget that there were eight players in the PCL aged 22 or younger who all OPS'd at least .902 in 158 or more PAs.  And the 21 major leaguers who had 100+ plate appearances at 22 or younger.

I'd say Hays led the O's in OPS last year if he'd been in a league where all you have to do is hit pretty well for a month or two to get called up somewhere higher.  The best players/prospects in the IL or PCL are rarely going to qualify for the batting title.

Not asking for 3.1 plate appearances per league game but surely your number of 140 plate appearances which is exactly 1 plate appearance per league game is a tad light.

And comparing stats in the PCL (league OPS of .831) to the IL (league OPS of .787), especially with Mountcastle playing his home games in Norfolk, is barely worth commenting on. 

Interesting article on AAA park effects here, comparing IL and PCL parks. Had no idea about Charlotte.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Not asking for 3.1 plate appearances per league game but surely your number of 140 plate appearances which is exactly 1 plate appearance per league game is a tad light.

And comparing stats in the PCL (league OPS of .831) to the IL (league OPS of .787), especially with Mountcastle playing his home games in Norfolk, is barely worth commenting on. 

Interesting article on AAA park effects here, comparing IL and PCL parks. Had no idea about Charlotte.

Thanks for the article.  I may be underselling Mountcastle because of a combination of park effects and age.  It's easy to forget Norfolk is still a pitchers park when Chance Sisco and Jace Peterson can OPS over .900.

Although I still have trouble seeing a 1B/LF/DH with a 5:1 AAA strikeout to walk ratio being an impact player in the majors.  To be a big asset he's going to have to hit at least as well as Trey Mancini, who was just a 3.5-win player with a .900 OPS last year.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Two completely different tones.

I think my two posts were consistent.  Mountcastle was arguably the best prospect, the best non-organizational player, in the IL who spent 120 or 130 games there.  There were any number of better players or better prospects who spent 30 or 50 or 75 games in the league but didn't get MVP votes because of their shorter tenure.  Almost every other comparable or better prospect got called up part way through the year, either from AA to AAA or from AAA to the majors.

[MurphDogg]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's easy to forget Norfolk is still a pitchers park when Chance Sisco and Jace Peterson can OPS over .900.

Jace Peterson had himself a year last year, he hadn't OPS'ed more than .734 at any level since 2014. Crazy year, I was curious to see what he would do this year, but I can't imagine he will get much playing time if he does make the Brewers. He is "only" 30, he could bounce around AAA for a few more years and maybe get another cup of coffee or two.

Sisco has some power, 18 homers between Norfolk (10) and Baltimore (8) last year in under 400 plate appearances split evenly between the two levels. He has a good approach at the plate, with a walk rate over 10 percent at both levels. His hard hit percentage with the O's was above average at 41.5 percent.

If he could be even average defensively he could be a sold second division starting catcher / top backup. I still haven't given up on him and I don't think he was much worse defensively than Severino last year.

[MurphDogg]

What jumps out to me is the absence of Ryan McKenna.

Not joining Mullins on this round of additions, he is the only 40-man roster member not in the player pool.

Considering they are playing ghost outfielders in the intrasquad games, his absence is notable.

 

Note: I deleted the other thread,  makes more sense here.

[Lucky_13]

Sill no Zimmerman right? He was having a solid spring

I get it with guys like Kremer but hard to believe they they are going to run Tommy Milone out there instead of giving guys him and Akin chances to earn rotation spots in shortened season  

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, Lucky_13 said:

Sill no Zimmerman right? He was having a solid spring

I get it with guys like Kremer but hard to believe they they are going to run Tommy Milone out there instead of giving guys him and Akin chances to earn rotation spots in shortened season  

He, Rondon and Urena were the three players that were still in camp when camp broke that have not been added to the player pool. Taylor Davis and Mason Williams were not on the initial Player Pool but have since been added.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

What jumps out to me is the absence of Ryan McKenna.

Not joining Mullins on this round of additions, he is the only 40-man roster member not in the player pool.

Considering they are playing ghost outfielders in the intrasquad games, his absence is notable.

 

Note: I deleted the other thread,  makes more sense here.

McKenna didn't even hit well at AA last season.    He has talent but needs development at the AA level.  I am not surprised he is not included when there are 7 or 8 outfielders ahead of him.

[MurphDogg]

Don't really understand Taylor Davis being added. Do we really need 6 catchers on the 60-man player pool? Seems like Rutschman and Holiday and/or Wynns can cover the secondary camp along with bullpen catchers that can presumably be hired for little more than minimum wage.

[makoman]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

He, Rondon and Urena were the three players that were still in camp when camp broke that have not been added to the player pool. Taylor Davis and Mason Williams were not on the initial Player Pool but have since been added.

I thought Diaz was still in camp too but I could be wrong. I'm a little surprised he isn't there too.