Sneak Peek: BA's Carolina League Top 20

[tywright]

My guess as of right now:

Wieters - Top 2

Tillman - Top 20

Matusz - Top 40 (because he hasn't played, yet; I think he shoots up the list)

Arrieta - Top 60

Erbe - Top 90

Reimold - Top 100

Snyder/Hernandez/Spoone/Patton/Britton could all be in the next 50

These aren't necessarily my rankings, but rather what I think BA will have.

Arrieta will be top 50. I don't see Reimold in the top 100 now. BA is all about age and upside and Reimold's age is hurting his "value".

[Frobby]

The on-line version of the Carolina League list is now up: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2008/266931.html The title of the article on the home page is "Quite a Battery" and has a nice picture of Arrieta. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/ The article says that Cleveland C prospect Carlos Santana would have been the no. 2 prospect but didn't have enough AB to quialify for consideration.

Just a reminder of how fortunate we were to get Wieters:

There was no doubting the identity of the high Class A Carolina League top prospect in 2008. Catcher Matt Wieters broke into pro ball by hitting .345/.448/.576 in 69 games at Frederick, the first step in earning Minor League Player of the Year honors.

Wieters' presence atop the list is made even more notable by the absence of Lynchburg lefthander Daniel Moskos from the Top 20. The Pirates famously balked at Wieters' price tag and instead chose Moskos with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2007 draft. Moskos, whose fastball dipped into the high 80s and whose slider flattened out, went 6-7, 6.72 as a starter and gave up runs in each of his first five outings after moving to the bullpen in late July.

There will be a chat at 2:30 if any members care to follow it and report in.

[mlrhode]

According to comments in BA article it sounds like the Orioles are taking the same route with Rowell as they did with Erbe. Humble them and make them more open to accept coaching.

Looks like it worked with Erbe, hopefully it does with Rowell.

I think it does show just how much upside Rowell has that BA would put him on the list just based on his potential. I think next year could be a big year for Rowell.

[Frobby]

According to comments in BA article it sounds like the Orioles are taking the same route with Rowell as they did with Erbe. Humble them and make them more open to accept coaching.

Looks like it worked with Erbe, hopefully it does with Rowell.

I think it does show just how much upside Rowell has that BA would put him on the list just based on his potential. I think next year could be a big year for Rowell.

For us non-subscribers, can someone post a quick synopsis of what they said about our guys? And were there any comments about the O's in the chat?

[sector7g]

Interesting comment from the chat re: Snyder's future position since some people were thinking his value may increase with a move to 3rd.

Q: mike from DC asks:

Do the O's have any plans to try Brandon Snyder at LF or 3B in Bowie next year? I'd like to see him at the hot corner now that he likely won't be on the same team as Rowell.

A: Josh Leventhal: No, I think he's at first for good. They think he has the potential to be a good defensive first baseman.

[sector7g]

For us non-subscribers, can someone post a quick synopsis of what they said about our guys? And were there any comments about the O's in the chat?

Some comments from the scouting reports and chat relating to our guys....

Wieters as usual gets glowing reviews. Said he has the potential to hit for Piazza power but with less average.

Arrieta needs to refine his secondary pitches by using them more often, though one scout suggested he could have three plus offerings and become a No. 2 starter in the big leagues. He can keep hitters off-balance with a big-breaking curveball, and he also throws a changeup that has its moments.

Snyder showed an ability to stay on offspeed pitches and drive balls to the opposite field. He has the potential to hit for average and power, as his strong hands and forearms should convert some of his doubles into homers down the road. He doesn't strike out excessively but he needs to draw more walks.

Rowell's raw power and smooth swing still portend the ability to hit for both power and average, but he needs to improve his discipline at the plate. He also needs to make adjustments against lefties, who held him to .185 and .187 averages the last two seasons. He showed a strong arm and improved footwork at third base, prompting confidence that he can remain there in the long term.

Erbe made a lot of progress this season and developed his secondary stuff enough to remain a starter. He's got two fastballs coming at 90+, and a potential plus pitch in his slider. Arrieta is a lot more polished and with a bigger arsenal of pitches to draw from.

[mlrhode]

For us non-subscribers, can someone post a quick synopsis of what they said about our guys? And were there any comments about the O's in the chat?

From BA article

Erbe went 6-8, 6.26 at Frederick as a 19-year-old last season, resisting adjustments to his delivery and wanting to pitch solely off his fastball—a recipe that worked in the lower minors but not against more advanced hitters. Erbe worked hard in the offseason to avoid a repeat of the humbling experience and shined in his second tour of the CL, leading the league with 151 strikeouts in as many innings.

He still pitched off his 92-94 mph four-seam fastball, but Erbe incorporated a two-seamer with sink and life that allowed him to pitch down in the zone. He also mixed in a changeup more regularly and a much-improved slider.

"Sometimes you have to get your nose bloodied a bit before you can have success," an Orioles official said. "He's a little hard-headed, a little bull-headed, but those qualities are OK. He'll be 21 in Double-A next year. He's in very good shape."

Rowell snuck in at No. 20 on our low Class A South Atlantic League list last year, and he's doing the same on this Top 20—more the result of his age (he was the youngest regular in the CL) and upside than his on-field performance. He went into a tailspin in June but recovered to bat .297/.354/.418 in August.

Rowell's raw power and smooth swing still portend the ability to hit for both power and average, but he needs to improve his discipline at the plate. He also needs to make adjustments against lefties, who held him to .185 and .187 averages the last two seasons. He showed a strong arm and improved footwork at third base, prompting confidence that he can remain there in the long term.

"He was 19 in a league that overwhelmed a bit," an Orioles official said. "I'm not worried about this kid. He has grown up, he has matured and I think his bat will be fine. I think he just got overwhelmed but he survived it. He needs to go back there and go at this league again."

[sector7g]

And comments from the scouting report on Wieters....

Wieters showed the ability to handle the league's best fastballs from either side of the plate, hitting .391 with eight homers as a lefty and .327 with seven homers as a righty. He uses a quick, strong swing to hit with power to all fields. Unusually disciplined for a power hitter, Wieters worked counts to get in good hitting situations and walked (44) nearly as much as he struck out (47). "Leave it out over the plate and he'll hurt you," Wilmington manager Daryl Kennedy said.

Wieters is deft behind the plate for a 6-foot-5, 230-pounder. He has quick feet, soft hands and plus arm strength, a combination that helped him throw out 45 percent of basestealers.

[Frobby]

From the chat:

Q: DK from NYC asks:

Who is LEAST likely to be big league rotation-ready by April 2010: Arrieta, Matusz, or Tillman?

A: Moderator: That's a tough one. Arrieta was awfully polished in the Carolina League and pitches well off that fastball. Tillman had little problem with the Eastern League and you'd think would get a crack at it by the end of next year. Let's go with Matusz just cause he hasn't made his debut yet.

Wow that's encouraging. Sounds like he thinks all three might be ready by April 2010.

[LookinUp]

From BA article

Rowell's raw power and smooth swing still portend the ability to hit for both power and average, but he needs to improve his discipline at the plate. He also needs to make adjustments against lefties, who held him to .185 and .187 averages the last two seasons. He showed a strong arm and improved footwork at third base, prompting confidence that he can remain there in the long term.

Holy Moly!

[Sports Guy]

From the chat:

Wow that's encouraging. Sounds like he thinks all three might be ready by April 2010.

You don't?

Barring injury or underperformance, i would be shocked if all 3 weren't there by 2010.

Sounds like Matusz is as sure a thing as you can get and if Tillman and Arrieta can show better fastball command and 6+ innings a start, they will be ready.

No reason to have them down any longer July of next year if they exhibit these things.

[Frobby]

You don't?

Barring injury or underperformance, i would be shocked if all 3 weren't there by 2010.

Sounds like Matusz is as sure a thing as you can get and if Tillman and Arrieta can show better fastball command and 6+ innings a start, they will be ready.

No reason to have them down any longer July of next year if they exhibit these things.

I like to hear that objective sources, who have no vested interest in the Orioles, think these guys will be ready by then. It is one thing for you, me, or some other fan of the team to think they will be ready. It is another for an outside observer with a credible publication like BA, who has actually seen these guys play, to think so. And in my experience, you always are pushing for guys to move faster than they do, both within the minors and from the minors up to the majors. So the opinion of a BA writer means more to me than your opinion on that issue. (Not that I don't value your opinion - I do.)

I won't form any opnion at all about how quickly Matusz may move until I see what happens in the AFL.