How the Mariners Farm System Went From #30 to #3 in Under Three Years

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s really hard to compare Seattle and Baltimore unless you really do a deep dig.    Dipoto has been on the job there since the day after the 2015 season ended.   He inherited a team that went 76-86.   He tried to compete for the first few years, and now is on a rebuilding path.     Their “dead last” ranking was before the 2018 season was played, and they still had some talent on the major league team, as evidenced by their 89-73 record that year.    They also had a solid Latin American program — their top prospects list has several Latin American players in the upper tiers (e.g. two in the BA top 100 who were signed before Elias was even on the job in Baltimore).  Elias, meanwhile, started in November 2018, and inherited a 47-115 team that already had traded away almost all of its useful major league assets, and which had almost no Latin American presence to speak of.     

So, I don’t consider the situations to be comparable.    That said, the jury’s still out on Elias.    And the lack of a minor league season this year makes it impossible to gauge how much progress our minor leaguer system would have made since last year.     

I was trying to compare the two directly.  I was trying to show that rapid gains are possible. 

[Frobby]

Just as an aside, Julio Rodriguez went from unranked pre-2019 to ranked no. 8 overall by BA pre-2020.    That’s quite an amazing leap.    

[Can_of_corn]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just as an aside, Julio Rodriguez went from unranked pre-2019 to ranked no. 8 overall by BA pre-2020.    That’s quite an amazing leap.    

Kinda like what Hays did a few years ago.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Kinda like what Hays did a few years ago.

More extreme.

Hays: BA 21, MLB.com 23, BP 72

Rodriguez: BA 8, MLB.com 18, BP 10

He played low A/high A last year at 18.     Really crushed high A, though it was only 17 games.    Apparently he made quite an impression.    

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

More extreme.

Hays: BA 21, MLB.com 23, BP 72

Rodriguez: BA 8, MLB.com 18, BP 10

He played low A/high A last year at 18.     Really crushed high A, though it was only 17 games.    Apparently he made quite an impression.    

Right, I was making a broad comparison..  Shocked BP was that tepid  on Hays.

[Just Regular]

Paxton and Segura too.  I had certainly forgotten the '18 Mariners won 89 (missing playoffs by 8 games makes 89 wins duller than it would be mostly).  The extra draft capital the last couple years has helped us in the same strategic lane stay close, but Dipoto's opening hand was better.  Buck perhaps wouldn't have let the GM's break up that team.

They could be interesting rivals for the peak Rutschman teams -  nothing's sexier than high school (or in Julio's case high school aged) bats, but still it is hard to shake the anchor that they are one of MLB's best Cleveland Browns facsimiles.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Has Elias had trade chips like Robinson Cano and 57 save Edwin Diaz?

I wouldn't call Robinson Cano a trade chip. I think Dipoto got lucky on that one and found a bad GM in Van Wagenen. Kelenic looks like the real deal.

 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s really hard to compare Seattle and Baltimore unless you really do a deep dig.    Dipoto has been on the job there since the day after the 2015 season ended.   He inherited a team that went 76-86.   He tried to compete for the first few years, and now is on a rebuilding path.     Their “dead last” ranking was before the 2018 season was played, and they still had some talent on the major league team, as evidenced by their 89-73 record that year.    They also had a solid Latin American program — their top prospects list has several Latin American players in the upper tiers (e.g. two in the BA top 100 who were signed before Elias was even on the job in Baltimore).  Elias, meanwhile, started in November 2018, and inherited a 47-115 team that already had traded away almost all of its useful major league assets, and which had almost no Latin American presence to speak of.     

So, I don’t consider the situations to be comparable.    That said, the jury’s still out on Elias.    And the lack of a minor league season this year makes it impossible to gauge how much progress our minor leaguer system would have made since last year.     

This weird year has made it pretty difficult to gauge things. If it was a normal year, I'd say it's probably time for the jury to start deliberating on Elias - but it's pretty difficult to judge him at this point with only one year of performance from the minors.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

I wouldn't call Robinson Cano a trade chip. I think Dipoto got lucky on that one and found a bad GM in Van Wagenen. Kelenic looks like the real deal.

 

Like I said after, a trade chip and a dumb trade partner.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Like I said after, a trade chip and a dumb trade partner.

Sorry Moose, didn't see that.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Like I said after, a trade chip and a dumb trade partner.

Diaz was the real trade chip there, coming off his 57 save, 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 15.2 K/9 season, and under team control for 4 more years.    Cano had a solid half season the previous year before being suspended for steroids, but everyone had to know that the back half of his 10-year deal was not going to be worth what they were paying him.    Agree that the Mets got taken in that deal.   

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Diaz was the real trade chip there, coming off his 57 save, 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 15.2 K/9 season, and under team control for 4 more years.    Cano had a solid half season the previous year before being suspended for steroids, but everyone had to know that the back half of his 10-year deal was not going to be worth what they were paying him.    Agree that the Mets got taken in that deal.   

I remember that people were skeptical that Diaz was THAT good.  I'd think the Mets would like to have that one back.  

[Chavez Ravine]

3 hours ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

This weird year has made it pretty difficult to gauge things. If it was a normal year, I'd say it's probably time for the jury to start deliberating on Elias - but it's pretty difficult to judge him at this point with only one year of performance from the minors.

Also, prospect grades were dynamic and subjective enough even before the COVID year. I’d rather be near the top of BA’s rank than the bottom, but  I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over our exact rank. Plus jumping to the head of a prospect list is the easy part. Consistently fielding a playoff capable MLB team over a couple decades or so is the hard part.

[Just Regular]

I liked when BP tacked Org Under 25 talent lists on to the end of their team Top 10's.  That's the more relevant rank for the medium to long term.

Somewhat astonishingly, it seems possible Ryan Mountcastle won't get 130 AB in MLB this year to graduate himself, while Luis Robert will.  So we'll "gain" on the White Sox next list season. 

FwIW

I will say that if these Ruiz, Santander, Severino performances are a leading indicator of rapidly improving player development practices, it could be really exciting to see what happens whenever the bluest of the blue chips get back to where we can see them.