Jump to content

The next 12 games are crucial

Bubble Buddy

By Bubble Buddy
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

Bubble Buddy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Bubble Buddy

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think the next 12 games that precede a 4 game set against NYY are pretty favorable.  

Normally I'd be content with going 6-6 to get to 18-18 (and depending on how far we slide here, I may be), but I'm concerned that 8 games against the Yankees paired with 3 against ATL and then 4 against TB could be a killer stretch. 

I think we need to go at least 7-5 over the next 12. That would give us a chance to go 6-9 against NYY, TB, ATL and head into the final 6 games against BOS and TOR right around .500 with a chance at one of those wild cards. 

 

 

Edited by Bubble Buddy
  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted

Right now, the Os are in the final WC spot.  
 

But the upcoming schedule is pretty difficult.

The next 4 games vs Boston, who is terrible right now, are pretty crucial if the Os want to be a playoff team.  If you have a poor series vs them, things could spiral down quickly.  

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bubble Buddy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Bubble Buddy

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

After salvaging a split with the Red Sox, I'm hoping to grab at least one game from Tampa. 

And with the surge that the White Sox have made, it would set up a really interesting 4 game set against the Blue Jays. In such a short season, it does look like it will be the two division rivals battling for that last wild card spot, although much can still change as we've seen losing streaks and winning streaks across MLB from contenders and pretenders. 

I was hoping for 7-5 in the next 12. We are 2-2. Would love to find a way to go 5-3 in the next 8. Could be tough. I think the most likely path would be 1-2 against TB, 3-1 against TOR, and 1-1 against NYM. 

Hopefully the boys get some good rest today. 

Edited by Bubble Buddy
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bpilktree Hangout Grand Counsel

bpilktree

Posted
Posted

The Orioles are currently 20th in percent good make playoffs behind the two division leaders in each.  The White Sox, Blue Jays and somehow the Angels.  Who have worst record in league which makes no sense.  They have to go 21-10 just to get to .500.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

The Orioles are currently 20th in percent good make playoffs behind the two division leaders in each.  The White Sox, Blue Jays and somehow the Angels.  Who have worst record in league which makes no sense.  They have to go 21-10 just to get to .500.

Which projections?  Fangraphs has the Angels at 8%, the O's at 18%.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bubble Buddy said:

What is ROS W %? And then is SOS foward looking or what we've already played? We've either been through the toughest in the American League or have the toughest remaining. 

Rest of schedule winning percentage.  Basically, projection of the rest of the schedule's results. I think SOS is rest of schedule.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bubble Buddy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Bubble Buddy

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Rest of schedule winning percentage.  Basically, projection of the rest of the schedule's results. I think SOS is rest of schedule.

Well, this is pretty grim, http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos: 

Our SOS thus far has been.466, 3rd worst in MLB. And then our projected SOS is gonna be the toughest in the AL to finish out the season as it stands right now. I'll still root like hell in the Toronto season if we can avoid a sweep against Tampa, but those are some rough numbers that contribute to our our more conservative playoff projections by Fangraphs. 

 

 

 

Edited by Bubble Buddy
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Bubble Buddy said:

Well, this is pretty grim, http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos: 

Our SOS thus far has been.466, 3rd worst in MLB. And then our projected SOS is gonna be the toughest in the AL to finish out the season as it stands right now. I'll still root like hell in the Toronto season if we can avoid a sweep against Tampa, but those are some rough numbers that contribute to our our more conservative playoff projections by Fangraphs. 

 

 

 

"Avoid a sweep vs Tampa"?   THEY have to show they can beat us ONCE before I worry about avoiding a sweep!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SteveA said:

"Avoid a sweep vs Tampa"?   THEY have to show they can beat us ONCE before I worry about avoiding a sweep!

It's not about Tampa, it's about getting wins, period. Right now it looks like 7 teams with >90% probability of making the playoffs. That leaves us and the Blue Jays with about 45% each chance of getting the last spot. There are a few scenarios of other teams sneaking in or one of the power teams dropping out, but mostly it is about getting more wins than the Blue Jays. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Grt 2BA FL Gator
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By Grt 2BA FL Gator · Posted

      Soto. 
    • Aristotelian
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      Soto has been fine since his first couple appearances and appears to be picking up steam. That makes seven. Problem is Cano has been the most reliable and all of a sudden looked terrible twice in a row. Hopefully he can get in one decent appearance in the final series.
    • Safelykept
      Starters vs Minnesota?

      By Safelykept · Posted

      So It's 13 pitchers for the Wild card round? What position player are you dropping?
    • Wavetrapper
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By Wavetrapper · Posted

      There have been 2-3 times when it seemed logical to call him up but they don’t.   I’ve never understood this thing they have for Baker.  Hey, Cole Irvin is available again!!
    • Aristotelian
      Congratulations Yankees

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      While we lost some talented players, I think the consensus was some of the players we lost were actually blocking more talented prospects. The loss of Westburg and Urias should have been mostly offset by Holliday and Mayo. Instead, they were truly abysmal.  Povich had some nice moments but he was disappointing as well.  Maybe our expectations were too high - Elias is not going to hit on every prospect, and even the ones that turn out good may take a while to adjust. Still, I think it is fair to have expected more out of Mayo and Holliday since the organization deemed them ready to promote.  In addition to the prospects, you had Adley hit a wall, going from a 6 WAR pace to replacement level, and Cowser and O'Hearn both struggling.  Certainly injuries hurt us, but we should have been strong enough to overcome them. Maybe not to sustain a 105 win pace but I think it is fair to say we should have been able to beat 95 wins and win the division even with the injuries.  
    • Sanfran327
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By Sanfran327 · Posted

      I was wondering what the knee-jerk reaction would be to an ugly game last night, but the truth is that the bullpen is fine, as is the rest of the team. We lack a true lockdown closer, but we have six arms by my count that are very good relievers in Akin, Perez, Coulombe, Webb, Cano, and Domingez. And you can add Suarez to that list next week, and possibly Povich, who should also make the PS roster as a lefty long relief option to mirror Suarez. Anyway, that game could have and would have gone much differently, IMO, if it were a playoff game. Burnes obviously stays in longer and gets at least through the top of the order if not back down to the bottom third to hand it over to the bullpen. Hopefully we'd be able to scratch out some runs, but that's not the bullpen's fault.  This is an extremely good team with a lead. Let's hope we get on the board early and often starting tonight.
    • Roy Firestone
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By Roy Firestone · Posted

      Boy, Brandon Young who has some decent numbers at Norfolk must be injured or unimpressive to the front office to not even get a look for this bullpen. Bryan Baker is almost a waste of a call up.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...