If only Elias hadn't traded the 11th best player in baseball (Bundy) for next to nothing

[Natty]

In the 5 seasons since we let Cruz go, he averaged 40.8 HR and 104.4 RBI each year. Not counting this season. And he is tied for the league lead in HRs now. 

[DrungoHazewood]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Saying that, I'm glad Elias is here now and has installed the technology and analytics while putting a new found emphasis on international scouting and signings that was never done under the Duquette regime.

I think the biggest change in the past five years was Peter Angelos pulling back from running the club. The sons seem to allow the GM freedoms that the father never did.  Thrift was well past his expiration date, but I think Beattie, Flanagan, MacPhail, and Duquette would have behaved quite differently under different ownership.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Natty said:

In the 5 seasons since we let Cruz go, he averaged 40.8 HR and 104.4 RBI each year. Not counting this season. And he is tied for the league lead in HRs now. 

Thanks for the update?

You do realize he's signed two contracts since then right?  The O's could have brought him back.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Natty said:

In the 5 seasons since we let Cruz go, he averaged 40.8 HR and 104.4 RBI each year. Not counting this season. And he is tied for the league lead in HRs now. 

And if you look at his top comps on bb-ref from his early 30s they're guys like Henry Rodriguez (last good year at 32), Gus Zernial (34), Kevin Mitchell (played 135 games after the age of 32), Jeromy Burnitz (2 WAR after 32), David Justice (last 2-win season at 34).

Cruz is an outlier among outliers.  If you make a habit of signing players like him to that contract you'll get fired pretty quickly.

[Natty]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think the biggest change in the past five years was Peter Angelos pulling back from running the club. The sons seem to allow the GM freedoms that the father never did.  Thrift was well past his expiration date, but I think Beattie, Flanagan, MacPhail, and Duquette would have behaved quite differently under different ownership.

Peter Angelos did get us Albert Belle without even discussing it with anyone else. 

[CallMeBrooksie]

1 minute ago, Natty said:

In the 5 seasons since we let Cruz go, he averaged 40.8 HR and 104.4 RBI each year. Not counting this season. And he is tied for the league lead in HRs now. 

Nobody is arguing that he hasn't been great since leaving here.. but it doesn't change that it was the correct move to make at that time. The O's would have probably been in much better shape roster-wise had they made more decisions like that in that timeframe. It's unfortunate that they didn't have the conviction to treat Trumbo and Davis the same way. 

 

[ChosenOne21]

Don't forget the draft pick we got for letting Cruz walk was Ryan Mountcastle

[Natty]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Thanks for the update?

You do realize he's signed two contracts since then right?  The O's could have brought him back.

No we couldn't,  we spent all our money on Chris Davis. LOL

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

Nobody is arguing that he hasn't been great since leaving here.. but it doesn't change that it was the correct move to make at that time. The O's would have probably been in much better shape roster-wise had they made more decisions like that in that timeframe. It's unfortunate that they didn't have the conviction to treat Trumbo and Davis the same way. 

 

I wonder if Trumbo would have received a contract from another team with the pick compensation attached?

[CallMeBrooksie]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I wonder if Trumbo would have received a contract from another team with the pick compensation attached?

Would have been worth a shot. I seem to recall it took a while until any player actually accepted the QO. Wasn't Wieters the first?

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

MacPhail gets some credit, but he was unwilling to do any number of things that Duquette did that pushed them over the top.  I think Duquette's strength was finding those Weaver-like underutilized assets, and getting Buck to properly deploy them.  They got the last good 500 at bats out of Nate McLouth, they got Steve Pearce and 100 solid ABs out of Jim Thome, and built an amazing bullpen out of random guys like Jim Johnson and Luis Ayala and O'Day and Strop and Patton and Britton.

MacPhail was very passive, not very creative.  His hands were tied like all the other GMs, and his reaction was to fall back on the draft and hope it worked out.  That's an over-simplification, but he was very conservative.  Right down to the sweater!

I agree with a lot of this and alluded to it in another post.

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

Would have been worth a shot. I seem to recall it took a while until any player actually accepted the QO. Wasn't Wieters the first?

The O's gave him a QO and he turned it down.  Then they signed him anyway.

I'm just curious if Trumbo would have signed with another team before the next draft.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

Nobody is arguing that he hasn't been great since leaving here.. but it doesn't change that it was the correct move to make at that time. The O's would have probably been in much better shape roster-wise had they made more decisions like that in that timeframe. It's unfortunate that they didn't have the conviction to treat Trumbo and Davis the same way. 

 

Exactly.  If anyone tells me that they knew Trumbo and Davis would tank and Cruz would go Hank Aaron on us I'm calling BS.  The safe thing is to just not sign any of them, and the takeaway from all that is if you want a first baseman/DH who can hit 30 homers there's plenty to go around.  The O's acquired Trumbo for backup catcher Steve Clevinger, they got Davis and Tommy Hunter for a year and couple months of Koji, and they got Cruz for a bargain bin free agent deal.

Here's a good rule for GMs: never take a mid-career guy you signed for $5M and give him a $50M (or $150M!) deal.

[Sports Guy]

Yea, you had to let Cruz walk.

Its easy to look back in hindsight and some will say they would have signed him but I would bet most of those people were saying that out of emotion...he evidence is pretty strong that you let a guy like that walk.

[scbalt52]

This will get bumped in 3 years and then we can have somewhat of an opinion on it. Personally, like Arrieta, I thought Bundy would've had a shot at being dropped from our rotation if they stayed, the same year they won/almost won the Cy Young with the next team. It happens, I'm not losing any sleep over it. Just laugh and keep on building, we're heading in the right direction. We're a half game out of a playoff spot on September 9th and we're "3-5 years away"! Try to enjoy it.