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Who's the #2 prospect?


Tony-OH

Who's the number two prospect?  

168 members have voted

  1. 1. Who's the number two prospect?

    • Ryan Adams
      1
    • Jake Arrieta
      15
    • Xavier Avery
      0
    • Brian Matusz
      36
    • Chris Tillman
      116


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Why do you say that? Now I'm honestly confused.

In the list that Greg posted in the "Post Your Own Top 30" thread, he had Avery at 17. Stotle, who along with Greg I would say has the most prospect knowledge around these parts, had Avery at 14. Not a single hangouter listed him in their Top 10. He didn't make the Top 20 in the GCL, a list that LJ Hoes was on.

So, again, why are you expecting Avery to be in the Top 10?

Because he's one of Tony's choices in the poll. Simple as that.

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If he went with the #'s 2-6 prospects in this poll and then the #'s 3-7 prospects in the next poll and so on, we'd figure it out and automatically know who's next by the time we got to the sixth poll.

As for the rankings, Hooded Viper, a small part of the answer is that if you're going to do rankings, someone has to be ranked higher and someone lower. As for the varying comments and opinions on Arrieta (or anyone else), well of course you'll have varying comments and opinions. In my opinion, there's not a strong reason to rank Tillman higher than Arrieta, but there are a few small reasons. And if I'm going to try to rank them, I'll have to use those small reasons.

As for my vote here on who OH will rank #2, I went with... Matusz. I think the 'major league ready' tag and his control were the tie breakers. I think Joe Jordan's comments and all the literature out there were enough to sway the OH staff into buying in. Now he just has to go live up to the hype. *fingers crossed*

EDIT: For the record and for what it's worth, I made this post without reading Stotle's post. I just missed it for some reason.

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In my projections I went Weiters, Tillman, Matusz, Arietta. I have a feeling that's the way Tony's going. However, I've reconsidered.

Tillman is clearly the most advanced for his age. Matusz is supposedly the most refined product, with multiple plus pitches, but he hasn't thrown one for us yet. Arietta, on the other hand, has the most potential to be dominant, IMO.

He's the pitcher of the year, made the olympic team and, if he hadn't gone to China, he clearly would have been put in Bowie's rotation. Given Tillman's walk rate (even with "stuff" that isn't quite up to Arietta's) and the fact that Matusz hasn't thrown a pitch yet, I'm going out on a limb and saying Jake should be #2.

And I'll be wrong. ;)

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In my projections I went Weiters, Tillman, Matusz, Arietta. I have a feeling that's the way Tony's going. However, I've reconsidered.

Tillman is clearly the most advanced for his age. Matusz is supposedly the most refined product, with multiple plus pitches, but he hasn't thrown one for us yet. Arietta, on the other hand, has the most potential to be dominant, IMO.

He's the pitcher of the year, made the olympic team and, if he hadn't gone to China, he clearly would have been put in Bowie's rotation. Given Tillman's walk rate (even with "stuff" that isn't quite up to Arietta's) and the fact that Matusz hasn't thrown a pitch yet, I'm going out on a limb and saying Jake should be #2.

And I'll be wrong. ;)

I voted for Tillman, but I think Jake is a bit underrated by some. There is little doubt in my mind that he is going to be a good big league pitcher. Getting him in the 5th round was an absolute steal.

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If BA thinks he's #2 in the Eastern League then I'm going with #2 in our system: Tillman.

Stotle - when was the last time you saw Tillman? I seem to remember accounts from the end of the season saying that he was commanding his FB (and even his secondary pitches) much better - even command w/in the zone.

Would that have an effect on your ranking?

I haven't seen him since July. I think he's throwing his CB more effectively and throwing for strikes more consistently, but I haven't heard that he's commanding it to the point he can consistently place it in the quadrants. BA's most recent write-up in the EL Top 20 indicated it was currently rated an "above-averge" pitch (that's a 55 to me). If he was truly commanding it, it would be a plus-offering at least, since there is good bite and it's a large enough 12-6 break to change the hitter's eye-level. Last season, he had trouble getting it over the plate consistently, in part because of the big break. If he's throwing it for strikes now, that's a great step in the right direction.

To answer your question, yeah he would be a no-doubt #2 on my list. If he truly commands the pitch I think he can be a #1, even without the 65/70 fastball. It also helps that he has improved is changeup.

As I said, I have no issue with anyone ranking Tillman ahead of Matusz. I really don't. It's close for me, but I'm still in love with Matusz's command over both his changeup and his curveball. I see three potential plus pitches with Matusz, and right now only two for Tillman (though his CB could be the best pitch between the two of them).

Hope that makes sense.

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A lot of good comments on here so far. Just as a note, just because a guy is in the poll does not necessarily mean he's within the next five picks. I've always enjoyed throwing in names here and there to spark conversation and to get people thinking. I also very well may be trying to throw you guys off occasionally. :D

I will say that I could put the next three picks in a hat and pull them out and I could build a case for the rankings. I'm not sure we've ever had a 2-4 that we could move around with ease because they all have such high ceilings.

In the end, they had to be put in order and you'll understand my thinking once you see the choices.

The real debate will begin with pick number five..... That one will be interesting....

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A lot of good comments on here so far. Just as a note, just because a guy is in the poll does not necessarily mean he's within the next five picks. I've always enjoyed throwing in names here and there to spark conversation and to get people thinking. I also very well may be trying to throw you guys off occasionally. :D

I will say that I could put the next three picks in a hat and pull them out and I could build a case for the rankings. I'm not sure we've ever had a 2-4 that we could move around with ease because they all have such high ceilings.

In the end, they had to be put in order and you'll understand my thinking once you see the choices.

The real debate will begin with pick number five..... That one will be interesting....

No doubt about that. Seems to me you could legitimately have a bunch of different guys there. Erbe, Reimold, Snyder, maybe Rowell, maybe someone who most people aren't looking at. To me, this year, #1 was a given, and 2-4 were pretty much a toss-up.

After that, it's a free-for-all.

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I haven't seen him since July. I think he's throwing his CB more effectively and throwing for strikes more consistently, but I haven't heard that he's commanding it to the point he can consistently place it in the quadrants. BA's most recent write-up in the EL Top 20 indicated it was currently rated an "above-averge" pitch (that's a 55 to me). If he was truly commanding it, it would be a plus-offering at least, since there is good bite and it's a large enough 12-6 break to change the hitter's eye-level. Last season, he had trouble getting it over the plate consistently, in part because of the big break. If he's throwing it for strikes now, that's a great step in the right direction.

To answer your question, yeah he would be a no-doubt #2 on my list. If he truly commands the pitch I think he can be a #1, even without the 65/70 fastball. It also helps that he has improved is changeup.

As I said, I have no issue with anyone ranking Tillman ahead of Matusz. I really don't. It's close for me, but I'm still in love with Matusz's command over both his changeup and his curveball. I see three potential plus pitches with Matusz, and right now only two for Tillman (though his CB could be the best pitch between the two of them).

Hope that makes sense.

Complete sense - and I don't disagree.

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Guest Sailor Jerry

Matusz commands four pitches and is very refined. Tillman's ceiling MIGHT be higher, though as good as his command is, it's not quite to Matusz's level and not quite as dominant. I'll take the college guy and guess Tillman checks in at three.

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Gotta go with Tillman at this point, although Matusz has a really good chance of jumping ahead of him this year. I like Arrieta too, but a lot of scouts have him ending up in the pen so that puts him at #4 IMO.

2. Tillman

3. Matusz

4. Arrieta

I tell you, it's nice when the #4 player taken in the draft is your 3rd best prospect and you have a guy like Arrieta that's your 4th best prospect.

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A 20-year old who is that good in AA has to rank no. 2. I wish Arrieta had been given the chance to show what he could have done in AA, and I wish Matusz had signed quickly so we could have seen what he could do anywhere. I''m going with the guy who proved what he could do at AA.

This pretty much sums up my take on the #2, as well. I see Matusz as a close #3 and Arrieta following up at #4. But, this is as strong a group as I can remember, overall. Only fault, still top heavy in pitching.

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