#2 Prospect - LHP Brian Matusz

[Hank Scorpio]

It's very hard to temper enthusiasm about these 3 pitchers, seriously.

[OsLuvrInKy]

Tony,

Reading these articles on our prospects gives me my first true hopes in a long time that this team is returning to respectability. Thank you good sir and please.....Sir, may I have another....

[bird watcher]

I picked Tillman but clearly state that I thought Tony would pick Matusz. I haven't heard Tony be as high on Tillman as other sources. This is no knock on anyone. Just differences of opinion.

[Tony-OH]

I have to say, I'm a little surprised about this selection. By all accounts, Tillman is a top 15 pitching prospect in all of baseball. He has #1 upside as well, but more than likely will be a #2.

Matusz still needs to prove to me he can pitch against top talent, so hopefully he has a very good debut in the AFL.

If he is, and I really don't know one way or the other and will leave the national rankings to experts like BA, I would say you should get very excited about Matusz then.

Matusz has basically the same fastball but has three more pitches compared to Tillman's two, two of which our considered plus-plus pitches. Plus Matusz has plus command of at least three of his offerings while Tillman doesn't consistently have plus command of any of his pitches yet.

Tillman has such an upside because he's only 20 and has completed a successful Double-A season and has a plus fastball and plus curve. Obviously people have different criteria to go off of when they make their lists, but we have to take everything into consideration and our opinion, Matusz gets the nod.

[Tony-OH]

I picked Tillman but clearly state that I thought Tony would pick Matusz. I haven't heard Tony be as high on Tillman as other sources. This is no knock on anyone. Just differences of opinion.

Just to be clear, I'm very high on Tillman, but because I don't see the dominant fastball I have a hard time making him out to be a number one one day. That's not a knock on the kid, because with his pitchability, mound presence, and pitching smarts I think he's going to end up a solid middle of the rotation guy and possible number two starter.

Most scouts will agree when they say actual number one guys are very few a far between. Being a number two or solid number three is nothing to be down on.

[Maverick2143]

6 one hand.... half dozen the other

Like Hank said its hard to temper my enthusiasm when I think about our Top 5. They all have the chance to be really really good.

[Greg Pappas]

Matusz (pronounced MAT' iss) should be a front of the rotation starter (#1-2) as early as OD 2010. Meaning we need to temper our expectation just a bit, and let him get acclimated into pro ball. He should be very good, and along with Arrieta, Tillman and a few others, carries the hopes of our franchise with their progress.

Here are some videos that you might like to view...

[tywright]

If he is, and I really don't know one way or the other and will leave the national rankings to experts like BA, I would say you should get very excited about Matusz then.

Matusz has basically the same fastball but has three more pitches compared to Tillman's two, two of which our considered plus-plus pitches. Plus Matusz has plus command of at least three of his offerings while Tillman doesn't consistently have plus command of any of his pitches yet.

Tillman has such an upside because he's only 20 and has completed a successful Double-A season and has a plus fastball and plus curve. Obviously people have different criteria to go off of when they make their lists, but we have to take everything into consideration and our opinion, Matusz gets the nod.

Oh I am excited, but I'm also a realist and I need to see success at the pro level before annointing someone. If Matusz is as good as you say then he should have a very good AFL debut...maybe even better than Arrieta.

Let's not forget that Tillman's upside is also due to his feel for pitching. He has a lot of polish for a young pitcher and that says a lot about his chances to achieve his potential. Once his change becomes more refined then he'll definitely be seen as a potential ace.

Q: Russ from Louisville asks:

What was it that made Tillman list above Snider? Just looking at his numbers, Tillman seems very solid, but not dominant. Am I missing something?

A: John Manuel: I guess you didn't read the scouting report. Tillman has a chance to be an ace, a No. 1 or No. 2 starter

[Frobby]

Oh I am excited, but I'm also a realist and I need to see success at the pro level before annointing someone. If Matusz is as good as you say then he should have a very good AFL debut...maybe even better than Arrieta.

I'm not quite sure how you do better than a 0.00 ERA. In fact, I think we have to be careful not to set our expectations for how Matusz will do in the AFL too high. All we really need to see there is a solid performance, not an overwhelming one. Remember, Wieters only put up a .770 OPS in Hawaii last winter, and he seems to be turning out OK.

[LADANK]

What happened to Ryan Adams? He was up there for number 2 slot now he isn't on the list for number 3. Usually when you have a group of arms coming to the major leagues you'd like at least one pitcher to pan out. We were hoping that one of Olson, Liz or Penn would of panned out. Now we have Matusz, Tillman, and Arietta. One of these three has to pan out for us. Then you have Erbe, Britton and Beato after them.

[Frobby]

What happened to Ryan Adams? He was up there for number 2 slot now he isn't on the list for number 3. Usually when you have a group of arms coming to the major leagues you'd like at least one pitcher to pan out. We were hoping that one of Olson, Liz or Penn would of panned out. Now we have Matusz, Tillman, and Arietta. One of these three has to pan out for us. Then you have Erbe, Britton and Beato after them.

Uh, I'm pretty sure Adams was on the list for the sake of a little humor. He's not a top 10 guy.

Forget Beato for the time being. Hernandez, Bergesen and Berken (at the very least) are all ahead of him.

[DuffMan]

Most scouts will agree when they say actual number one guys are very few a far between. Being a number two or solid number three is nothing to be down on.

I think that sometimes here on the hangout that some expect a firm locked in number for our pitching prospects. When it comes to our more hyped prospects we seem to have higher expectations of a rotation full of #1's, and then when we hear or read about said pitcher more likely being only a 2 or a 3 it's kind of disappointing. As Tony mentioned, being a 2 or 3 is nothing to sneeze at. We could use several 2's or 3's in our rotations right now.

[tywright]

I'm not quite sure how you do better than a 0.00 ERA. In fact, I think we have to be careful not to set our expectations for how Matusz will do in the AFL too high. All we really need to see there is a solid performance, not an overwhelming one. Remember, Wieters only put up a .770 OPS in Hawaii last winter, and he seems to be turning out OK.

I'd think 5+ starts with a 2.00 ERA (Matt Harrison posted a 2.00 ERA over 7 starts) is better than 16IP of 0 ER in relief. Arrieta was very dominant in relief but I doubt he would have posted a 0.00 ERA if he started.

[oriole_way]

I believe I read that he sits comfortably at 90-92. He pitches off his offspeed stuff, though, which is nasty and he commands it well. I've also read that with a minor mechanical adjustment (leg work) he might be able to add a tick or two to his velocity. We'll see.

That very well may be true with regards to Matusz. But I have seen pitchers whose scouting reports exaggerate the velocity of their fastball. For example, when Loewen was drafted, many scouting reports stated that his fastball was in the mid to low 90s. But I never saw that type of fastball from him in any of his major league stints. At times he touched 92, but he usually sat around 90-91. Now Loewen did get injured while in the minors and maybe that sapped a bit of his velocity, but I've seen this type of exxageration with other pitchers as well.

Hopefully, that is not the case with Matusz. I like the Cole Hamels comparisons, but even as good as his changeup is, I don't think he's be quite as effective if he could only complement it with an 89 mph fastball, as opposed to his 92 mph fastball.

[Frobby]

That very well may be true with regards to Matusz. But I have seen pitchers whose scouting reports exaggerate the velocity of their fastball. For example, when Loewen was drafted, many scouting reports stated that his fastball was in the mid to low 90s. But I never saw that type of fastball from him in any of his major league stints. At times he touched 92, but he usually sat around 90-91. Now Loewen did get injured while in the minors and maybe that sapped a bit of his velocity, but I've seen this type of exxageration with other pitchers as well.

Hopefully, that is not the case with Matusz. I like the Cole Hamels comparisons, but even as good as his changeup is, I don't think he's be quite as effective if he could only complement it with an 89 mph fastball, as opposed to his 92 mph fastball.

I agree that velocity tends to get exaggerated in scouting reports. But I also think it's an overrated commodity compared to command. If Matusz truly has command over 4 pitches, he's not going to need a 94 mph fastball to be very, very successful.