#2 Prospect - LHP Brian Matusz

[RVAbird]

That very well may be true with regards to Matusz. But I have seen pitchers whose scouting reports exaggerate the velocity of their fastball. For example, when Loewen was drafted, many scouting reports stated that his fastball was in the mid to low 90s. But I never saw that type of fastball from him in any of his major league stints. At times he touched 92, but he usually sat around 90-91. Now Loewen did get injured while in the minors and maybe that sapped a bit of his velocity, but I've seen this type of exxageration with other pitchers as well.

Hopefully, that is not the case with Matusz. I like the Cole Hamels comparisons, but even as good as his changeup is, I don't think he's be quite as effective if he could only complement it with an 89 mph fastball, as opposed to his 92 mph fastball.

I hear you, and these were my concerns when he was drafted. He doesn't have the ceiling of top pitchers in other drafts.

He is, however, the best bet to become a middle of the rotation starter right away and with prolonged success out of anyone in our system. He is more polished than any other pitcher we have and his command is also the best. He knows how to pitch and his offspeed stuff is ML ready. I have little doubt that, assuming he stays healthy, he'll be a solid number 3 pitcher in two years with the potential to be a legit front of the rotation starter.

[oriole_way]

I agree that velocity tends to get exaggerated in scouting reports. But I also think it's an overrated commodity compared to command. If Matusz truly has command over 4 pitches, he's not going to need a 94 mph fastball to be very, very successful.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to imply that velocity is the only thing that matters. I understand that.

But I also think that each pitcher needs to be able to throw a fastball at a certain velocity to keep hitters honest and off balance. And that velocity is usually at least in the low 90s for the better pitchers. There aren't too many Greg Madduxes out there who dominated with a mediocre fastball.

It's one reason I don't think Garrett Olson will ever be more than a back end of the rotation starter. When he was in the minors, his stats and scouting reports were promising. Now I never thought that he was a top of the rotation starter, but I had hopes that he could be a solid mid rotation starter. But when I first saw Olson pitch in the majors, I saw that his fastball usually sits around 89 mph. That's probably not going to cut it, no matter how much his control and off speed pitches improve.

Take a look at Pedro Martinez. He had an arsenal of pitches, with movement and control to spare. But when he could no longer throw in the mid 90s and now could only throw in the high 80s, he was no where near the same pitcher.

[Fred Manfraud]

Obviously, velocity is important. No one is arguing that. The most important thing is having about a 10 mph difference between a fastball and changeup from what I understand. That's why Mussina struggled last year. There was about a 5 mph difference at times. Matusz is said to have a plus-changeup and as long as he keeps approximately a 10 mph difference it should be a successful pitch. My point is, he doesn't have to throw 95. If he throws 91 with good location and his change is 81, both pitches have the potential to be successful.

[Frobby]

Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to imply that velocity is the only thing that matters. I understand that.

But I also think that each pitcher needs to be able to throw a fastball at a certain velocity to keep hitters honest and off balance. And that velocity is usually at least in the low 90s for the better pitchers. There aren't too many Greg Madduxes out there who dominated with a mediocre fastball.

It's one reason I don't think Garrett Olson will ever be more than a back end of the rotation starter. When he was in the minors, his stats and scouting reports were promising. Now I never thought that he was a top of the rotation starter, but I had hopes that he could be a solid mid rotation starter. But when I first saw Olson pitch in the majors, I saw that his fastball usually sits around 89 mph. That's probably not going to cut it, no matter how much his control and off speed pitches improve.

Take a look at Pedro Martinez. He had an arsenal of pitches, with movement and control to spare. But when he could no longer throw in the mid 90s and now could only throw in the high 80s, he was no where near the same pitcher.

I am far more disappointed with Garrett Olson's command than I am with his velocity. I disagree that his velocity is inadequate.

I don't think Pedro is a very good example. His command has dropped way off with his arm problems -- 44 BB in 109 IP this year. I could just as easily point you to Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina (now) or Jamie Moyer as examples of guys who can't throw 90 mph but are still very successful.

Don't get me wrong, as between a pitcher with good command and a 95 mph fastball, and a pitcher with good command and a 90 mph fastball, I'll take the faster guy. But as between a guy with a 90 mph fastball and good command, and a guy with a 95 mph fastball and mediocre command, I'll take the slow guy.

[Mackus]

Matusz is also left-handed, which makes having mid-90's heat less important.

I disagree completely with the notion that he doesn't have #1 upside. He may not reach it, and is certainly more likely to be a #2 or so, but he absolutely has ace upside.

[Hallas]

While I have no doubt that the scouts that are rating Matusz highly are unbiased and are skilled enough at their trade that they can accurately determine a pitcher's command and how well it will translate against higher competition, I personally see a world of difference in demonstrating pinpoint command against college bats, and demonstrating it against AA/AAA bats. Tillman has done what he's doing against AA bats at a younger age. And while his command numbers are worse, we seem to have a history of pitchers who can't translate their command numbers against higher levels of competition.

Now, if Matusz comes in next April/May and starts blowing away AA hitters, then I'll quickly change my tune. But as of this moment, I personally disagree with ranking him above Tillman. I understand the argument that Matusz has better raw stuff and more plus-level pitches as a rationale for ranking him higher. However, I think that using this as a basis for ranking Matusz higher is selling Tillman's stuff way short, considering that numberous scouts have listed him as having #1-#2 potential.

[Tony-OH]

While I have no doubt that the scouts that are rating Matusz highly are unbiased and are skilled enough at their trade that they can accurately determine a pitcher's command and how well it will translate against higher competition, I personally see a world of difference in demonstrating pinpoint command against college bats, and demonstrating it against AA/AAA bats. Tillman has done what he's doing against AA bats at a younger age. And while his command numbers are worse, we seem to have a history of pitchers who can't translate their command numbers against higher levels of competition.

Now, if Matusz comes in next April/May and starts blowing away AA hitters, then I'll quickly change my tune. But as of this moment, I personally disagree with ranking him above Tillman. I understand the argument that Matusz has better raw stuff and more plus-level pitches as a rationale for ranking him higher. However, I think that using this as a basis for ranking Matusz higher is selling Tillman's stuff way short, considering that numberous scouts have listed him as having #1-#2 potential.

If I thought Tillman had #1 stuff he'd be number two. I don't. I certainly understand your line of thinking and as I've said before, I could build a case for 2-4 to switch places in just about any order, but what it comes down to is what pitcher would you prefer to have in your system if you could only have one. My choice would be Matusz and that's why he's number two.