Who's the #5 prospect?

[Tony-OH]

Ok, now that 1-4 is done, the real fun and debate begins with number five. We've looked over the numbers, talked with the scouts and did our own analysis and our number five should start some fun debate.

Number five will be announced by Monday morning....

[Big Mac]

I've got Brandon Erbe at #5.

I could see Snyder, and even Rowell this high, but I think Erbe should be at #5.

[Frobby]

It's definitely Erbe among the pitchers. Since BA ranked Erbe 8th in the CL and Snyder 16th, I'll ride with that and choose Erbe. I look for him to have a big breakout year next season.

[McNulty]

I'm surprised a bit that Reimold isn't even an option here. I might of guessed him.

[Mackus]

Give me Erbe as well. Gotta love his upside and youth.

[Mackus]

I'm surprised a bit that Reimold isn't even an option here. I might of guessed him.

If his name was Brian Reimold I think we'd see him on the list.

[McNulty]

If his name was Brian Reimold I think we'd see him on the list.

OK, I can appreciate some good alliteration when I see it.

[RVAbird]

I'm very surprised Reimold wasn't on the list. He fell somewhere between 5 and 7 for me.

Either way, I'll go with Erbe. I think he's underrated here and I see him breaking out big time in '09.

[Lucky Jim]

I agree. The HR rate is an issue - but that's about it.

[Mackus]

I agree. The HR rate is an issue - but that's about it.

Is there any way, either from something like the PitchFX data or even just scouting reports, to know what percentage of the HRs Erbe gave up came on what types of pitches?

With someone with such good numbers across the board except for the HR-rate, without having seen him, I would guess that a lot of his HRs are simply due to him being inconsistent with the breaking ball. When he throws good ones they are unhittable, but he too often throws poor ones which get crushed for the HRs. For those who get to see him often, is that the case? If so, I think that as he gains consistency with the pitch, the HR numbers will go down and match the rest of the great results.

[TakebackOPACY]

Bergesen: Can't be 5. Few pitchers with his below 4.5k/9ip in 'AA' have notable careers in the majors. Then, factor in that 'AA' lefties hit .304 against him and posted a 1.55 WHIP against him, I just don't want to picture him facing the lefties in the AL East.

Bundy: It's great that we're excited about this kid, but he's not our #5 prospect just yet. I think he's on this list because his name begins with 'B'.

Brandon Erbe: Carolina League: 2nd in innings pitched, tied for 1st in complete games, 1st in K's, 1st in WHIP (qualified starters); 1st in HR's allowed (oops). He's such subtle, but difficult improvements away from "wow"!

Billy Rowell: .186/.237/.286/.523 against lefties

Brandon Snyder There's reason to be excited, but he has no position. To me, he profiles as a DH/PH/backup 1B. That kind of player is a luxury that many 25-man rosters cannot afford. Of course the hope is that he can improve in some areas and offer the flexibility of playing 3B and/or corner OF. He has to go and do it before he can be ranked this high.

[ChaosLex]

Difficult choice between Erbe and Snyder. I went with the latter, simply because of the leaps-and-bounds he made on the farm this year.

I'm hopeful he'll be our starting 3B in 2010.

[JTrea81]

I'm going with Snyder. The guy will still only be 22 in Bowie, so he's got the most upside left out of any of our position prospects that aren't in Rookie Ball.

[Icterus galbula]

I think Snyder did a lot to prove himself this year. I think it is him.

[Mackus]

Snyder had the better numbers, but Erbe had very solid ones and is 2 years younger. Erbe's got the higher upside, Snyder's a safer bet.

My guess is these two are #5 and #6, just a question of what order. I still think its Erbe ahead of Snyder.