Who's the #5 prospect?

[Gurgi]

Shocked Reimold didnt even get into the five phantom choices! Tony is really down on this guy. Does Reimold have a hole in his swing or something? Something really must be up.

I got to say Erbe if no Reimold on the list.

[Ruzious]

I was prepared to be in the minority in voting for Erbe here, but my fellow posters are smarter than I thought. It's gotta be him, imo. Yes, he's behind Tillman, but in some ways he's better. He's got a lower walk rate, he's gone deeper into games, and he allows fewer base runners. A 1.13 WHIP is impressive for a 20 year old in high A. It's just the homers that's the problem - perhaps a problem of concentration that can be cured with maturity.

[wildcard]

Boy, this really says something about Reimold. He didn't even make the list.

[Gurgi]

I was prepared to be in the minority in voting for Erbe here, but my fellow posters are smarter than I thought. It's gotta be him, imo. Yes, he's behind Tillman, but in some ways he's better. He's got a lower walk rate, he's gone deeper into games, and he allows fewer base runners. A 1.13 WHIP is impressive for a 20 year old in high A. It's just the homers that's the problem - perhaps a problem of concentration that can be cured with maturity.

I read somewhere that Frederick has a higher homerun %. Something like 25% more than average parks. Could explain 3-5 of the homers against him.

[Big Mac]

Boy, this really says something about Reimold. He didn't even make the list.

I'm pretty sure it's because his name doesn't start with a B.

[WebLink21]

I went with Snyder, but I really think (my opinion) that Reimold should be ahead of all of these guys.

[Tony-OH]

Boy, this really says something about Reimold. He didn't even make the list.

No it doesn't, it just means he's not number five. The choices have never been the next five prospects or anything. Again, I throw in a couple of close ones and sometimes a couple of guys that you may be able to throw away at that pick. Sometimes I have fun and put everyone who's name begins with the same letter.

I'm not saying that Reimold is next or out of the top ten, I'm just saying that his exclusion from this list does not mean he can't be next.

[Sports Guy]

Yea, i think Reimold should be here but, as I said yesterday, I didn't think Tony would have him here and figure he will be in the 6-8 range...Erbe should be #5.

[blazer]

Went with Erbe...I think Reimold, Hernandez and Snyder should be the next three is some order. It'll be interesting to see if young guys like Britton or Hoes crack the top ten; also interesting to see how far Rowell (high ceiling/bad season) has fallen and how high Bergensen (low ceiling/great season) has risen. The other two guys I'm curious about are Spoone and Patton, who without injuries would be top 10 guys.

[tywright]

Snyder has a real solid case to be #5. He'll only be 22 next year and he'll be starting in Bowie. His 2nd half this season was pretty eye-opening...just look at his .968 OPS.

[Frobby]

Is there any way, either from something like the PitchFX data or even just scouting reports, to know what percentage of the HRs Erbe gave up came on what types of pitches?

With someone with such good numbers across the board except for the HR-rate, without having seen him, I would guess that a lot of his HRs are simply due to him being inconsistent with the breaking ball. When he throws good ones they are unhittable, but he too often throws poor ones which get crushed for the HRs. For those who get to see him often, is that the case? If so, I think that as he gains consistency with the pitch, the HR numbers will go down and match the rest of the great results.

Erbe's HRs came in bunches. 17 of the 21 HRs came in 8 starts, including 4 starts where he allowed 3 HR in a game. The eight bad games included two streaks of three straight bad starts, and two other random games. In his other 20 starts Erbe allowed only 4 HRs and had an ERA below 2.00. So to me this is just a case where Erbe lost his mechanics a few times during the year. When he's on his game - which is more than 2/3 of the time - the HRs are not an issue. All he needs to do is iron out the inconsistencies.

[Guest Sailor Jerry]

No one wants to mention Billy Rowell, huh? Age and tools don't mean anything?

[Frobby]

No one wants to mention Billy Rowell, huh? Age and tools don't mean anything?

He's still high on the radar, but it's hard to keep the guy in the top five when he hasn't really done much on the field. If his numbers skyrocket next year he can be right back up in the top spot in a year. But for now he hasn't earned it.

[Hank Scorpio]

I've seen lots of toolsy guys come into this system and never pan out.

Not saying Rowell won't pan out, but I also can't sit here and tell you the differences between Rowell and Darnell McDonald, Keith Reed, Kieron Pope, etc...

I hope that Rowell's different.

[sector7g]

I think Erbe too. Really nice perhipials, young and a great arm.

I agree with a lot of other people here, it would have been nice to see Reimold available on the vote so we could see how all the posters here rated him. I would hazard a guess that he'd have won the vote.