Bets on where Tony will rank Hoes?

[Frobby]

Yeah, command, it's not a small deal.

He hasn't figured it out yet and he's already 23.

If he can't throw strikes in AA ball at age 23, why should I believe he will in the majors anytime soon?

He's just too much of an unfinished product at this point in his career. If he was 20-21, this wouldn't be as much of an issue, but the fact that he's 23 and has so many question marks makes me skeptical of him having any success as a ML starter.

Here I think you are being a little harsh. I mean, Hernandez did lead the league in strikeouts and finish 3rd in ERA, which is no small accomplishment. And while his walk rate was high, his BAA was low enough (.217) that his WHIP was very respectable (1.30). Also, his walk rate at Frederick was much lower, so it's not like he has a long history of putting up high walk totals.

The real issue to me is what progress he makes in 2009. He made huge leaps in 2008. If he makes half that much progress next year, he'll have a shot at vying for the rotation.

I also think people seem to underrate the value of a power reliever. If "all" Hernandez turns out to be is a reliever who can throw 1-3 innings and do what Matt Albers or Jim Johnson did this year, I'll be just fine with that.

[Flosman]

I think the O's handling of Hernandez shows a real change in the O's development plan. In the past he would have finished the year in the O's rotatation flaws and all. It would have been Dcab all over again. Electric arm in consistant breaking pitch which is unhittable when he is on. Poor control, no use of a changeup and poor results generally, but with flashes of success. Dcab should have been force to develop command or put in the pen in hindsight. Hopefully for the O's DH develops into what his ceiling is, and finally the O's are allowing guys like him and Tillman do just that in the Minors.

[Frobby]

I think the O's handling of Hernandez shows a real change in the O's development plan. In the past he would have finished the year in the O's rotatation flaws and all. It would have been Dcab all over again. Electric arm in consistant breaking pitch which is unhittable when he is on. Poor control, no use of a changeup and poor results generally, but with flashes of success. Dcab should have been force to develop command or put in the pen in hindsight. Hopefully for the O's DH develops into what his ceiling is, and finally the O's are allowing guys like him and Tillman do just that in the Minors.

Cabrera was rushed to an unbelievable extent -- he had only pitched 5 games above Delmarva when he was called to the majors, and he had thrown only 253 minor league innings. Hernandez has 473 minor league innings under his belt, including 286 innings at Frederick and Bowie. He still has things to work on, but he's a far more finished product than DCab was at the time of his call-up.

[slappy12]

Here I think you are being a little harsh. I mean, Hernandez did lead the league in strikeouts and finish 3rd in ERA, which is no small accomplishment. And while his walk rate was high, his BAA was low enough (.217) that his WHIP was very respectable (1.30). Also, his walk rate at Frederick was much lower, so it's not like he has a long history of putting up high walk totals.

The real issue to me is what progress he makes in 2009. He made huge leaps in 2008. If he makes half that much progress next year, he'll have a shot at vying for the rotation.

I also think people seem to underrate the value of a power reliever. If "all" Hernandez turns out to be is a reliever who can throw 1-3 innings and do what Matt Albers or Jim Johnson did this year, I'll be just fine with that.

It's exactly how I see it! His BB/9 was 2.91 in Frederick, which is very good and I keep saying this, but if he can get back to that then he can vye for a starter's postition. And as for Flosman quote shows good judgment on the Orioles part, finally!!:

Originally Posted by Flosman

I think the O's handling of Hernandez shows a real change in the O's development plan. In the past he would have finished the year in the O's rotatation flaws and all. It would have been Dcab all over again. Electric arm in consistant breaking pitch which is unhittable when he is on. Poor control, no use of a changeup and poor results generally, but with flashes of success. Dcab should have been force to develop command or put in the pen in hindsight. Hopefully for the O's DH develops into what his ceiling is, and finally the O's are allowing guys like him and Tillman do just that in the Minors.

[Stotle]

It's exactly how I see it! His BB/9 was 2.91 in Frederick, which is very good and I keep saying this, but if he can get back to that then he can vye for a starter's postition. And as for Flosman quote shows good judgment on the Orioles part, finally!!:

The command is a big issue, but perhaps more important is developing a better changeup. He can't be a starter with a plus-fastball, fringy slider and "show-me" change, at least not in the AL East.

I agree with Frobby that power arms are being underrated here. Would anyone be frustrated if Hernandez was BAL's Arredondo in two years?

[Frobby]

The command is a big issue, but perhaps more important is developing a better changeup. He can't be a starter with a plus-fastball, fringy slider and "show-me" change, at least not in the AL East.

Is his change-up bad, or is he just afraid to use it? I seem to recall that in the last game of the 2007 season, he started using his change-up a lot and struck out 15 batters. There was talk that he had finally been convinced to use it after resisting all season. But then this year it seems like he again didn't go to it that much. I definitely feel that developing and using his change is a high priority for him in 2009.

[Malike]

Yeah, command, it's not a small deal.

He hasn't figured it out yet and he's already 23.

If he can't throw strikes in AA ball at age 23, why should I believe he will in the majors anytime soon?

He's just too much of an unfinished product at this point in his career. If he was 20-21, this wouldn't be as much of an issue, but the fact that he's 23 and has so many question marks makes me skeptical of him having any success as a ML starter.

I get that you think Billy Rowell is the next A-Rod. When he's 23 and in AA and putting up a sub .800 OPS are you going to be as brutal about him as you are about Hernandez?

None of our pitchers on the ML team are going deep into games, maybe they should all be relievers, just have an entire staff of guys who can go 2-3 innings at a time and stop using the traditional mantra of we need guys we can give us 8 each time out.

Hernandez has done nothing but lead his last two leagues in K's, won lots of games, kept his team in most of the games he's started. I get that you think hes nothing, but you're probably going to be wrong in your assessment. The kid has talent, and lots of it.

You say he's too unfinished at this point in his career. He's 23 for God's sake, you make it sound like hes 28 and toiling around in AA ball.

As to the topic, I think Hoes falls in right at number 10, on the OH list.

[Stotle]

Is his change-up bad, or is he just afraid to use it? I seem to recall that in the last game of the 2007 season, he started using his change-up a lot and struck out 15 batters. There was talk that he had finally been convinced to use it after resisting all season. But then this year it seems like he again didn't go to it that much. I definitely feel that developing and using his change is a high priority for him in 2009.

"Show me" was a little harsh -- apologies. I guess I like to see confidence in a pitch, which I don't see from Hernandez. It could be an average pitch, and will need to be in order for him to start, but he needs to throw it and he needs to command it at least to both sides (generally). If you don't throw it, how will you ever be confident going to it when you need it?

Perfect example is AJ Burnett. He actually has a solid changeup. The problem is he never throws it! The result is no margin of error on his curveball. Now, Burnett gets away with this fairly often because his curveball is a legit fringe-plus-plus pitch when he commands it. I don't see that in Hernandez's slider. Further, Burnett's CB changes the hitter's eye level. Hernandez doesn't get consistent 2-plane action on his slider, so a changeup with some depth could help keep hitters honest and prevent them from locking in on specific parts of the strike zone.

[Stotle]

I get that you think Billy Rowell is the next A-Rod. When he's 23 and in AA and putting up a sub .800 OPS are you going to be as brutal about him as you are about Hernandez?

None of our pitchers on the ML team are going deep into games, maybe they should all be relievers, just have an entire staff of guys who can go 2-3 innings at a time and stop using the traditional mantra of we need guys we can give us 8 each time out.

Hernandez has done nothing but lead his last two leagues in K's, won lots of games, kept his team in most of the games he's started. I get that you think hes nothing, but you're probably going to be wrong in your assessment. The kid has talent, and lots of it.

You say he's too unfinished at this point in his career. He's 23 for God's sake, you make it sound like hes 28 and toiling around in AA ball.

As to the topic, I think Hoes falls in right at number 10, on the OH list.

I think there are more future relief arms in the Orioles's system than many here would expect.

I think Hernandez is a future late-inning reliever (set-up or closing) and has incredible value for BAL. He's a legit ML-prospect and has the stuff to get hitters out. It's just unlikely, in my opinion, that he could do it consistently over the course of six innings and multiple times through the order.

Let him continue to improve as a starter -- I'm all for it. Ultimately, I think BAL will take advantage of his arm and just turn him loose in the pen. He could be very special there if things go his way and he gets a little more consistency.

The question is whether or not he would embrace that role. Were I a starter my whole life, it would be tough for me to get excited about a move to he pen. My advice would be to talk to guys like Rivera, Papelbon, Wagner, etc. who made the switch and exceled. Of course, this is only if BAL were to ask him to relieve.

[Three Run Homer]

As for the original topic: I put Hoes at #7 on my list, so I'd feel happy if Tony put him in the top 10.

As for Hernandez: I have a question for Stolte, Frobby and others who have more experience scouting players than me. If Hernandez has command issues, why would we expect him to be a successful reliever (assuming he doesn't iron them out)? Don't relievers have to throw quality strikes too? Is the issue just that a reliever doesn't have to worry so much about getting into deep counts, as long as they can eventually get people out?

[Frobby]

As for the original topic: I put Hoes at #7 on my list, so I'd feel happy if Tony put him in the top 10.

As for Hernandez: I have a question for Stolte, Frobby and others who have more experience scouting players than me. If Hernandez has command issues, why would we expect him to be a successful reliever (assuming he doesn't iron them out)? Don't relievers have to throw quality strikes too? Is the issue just that a reliever doesn't have to worry so much about getting into deep counts, as long as they can eventually get people out?

Just to be clear, I have no scouting experience at all. I agree that command issues can affect a reliever quite lot. Really the big difference is (1) pitch counts, and (2) it's easier to get by on two pitches you can command, rather than 3-4, when you are only going to see batters one time in a game.

[Stotle]

As for the original topic: I put Hoes at #7 on my list, so I'd feel happy if Tony put him in the top 10.

As for Hernandez: I have a question for Stolte, Frobby and others who have more experience scouting players than me. If Hernandez has command issues, why would we expect him to be a successful reliever (assuming he doesn't iron them out)? Don't relievers have to throw quality strikes too? Is the issue just that a reliever doesn't have to worry so much about getting into deep counts, as long as they can eventually get people out?

What Frobby wrote. You need command, but particularly as a starter to keep counts down. 2-pitches is generally enough in the pen -- if Hernandez were to throw a consistent plus-slider and a plus-fastball, he could be a late-inning guy in the pen. Since his slider doesn't change eye-level of the hitter, I'd think he'd want a better off-speed pitch to help keep hitters honest were he to continue starting. Otherwise, I don't see his 2-pitch mix playing multiple times through the order.

[Lucky Jim]

Thats just the way questions are often times asked in chats, its not unprofessional in any way, shape or form. He's not playing a joke on anybody, he's just responding to the questions that are asked of him.

Nobody would actually think that if a question in a chat comes up like:

Matt Wieters from Frederick asks:

When will they move me up to Bowie?

That it is actually Wieters asking the questions. Its extreme gullibility and lack of common sense if anybody actually thought it was.

I don't agree with Manuel's analysis of Hernandez as a middle reliever at best, but calling him unprofessional for doing his job is out of line.

This is spot-on. I think Manuel's take on Hernandez is spot-on, talent-wise. It's just that his probabilistic analysis is different from David's fans. He sees a slimmer chance that he stays a starter than that he goes to the pen. There's nothing in his analysis that makes me think he'd be surprised if David ended up a solid-to-good ML starter. He just doesn't think that's the likeliest outcome.

[Big Mac]

I get that you think Billy Rowell is the next A-Rod. When he's 23 and in AA and putting up a sub .800 OPS are you going to be as brutal about him as you are about Hernandez?

None of our pitchers on the ML team are going deep into games, maybe they should all be relievers, just have an entire staff of guys who can go 2-3 innings at a time and stop using the traditional mantra of we need guys we can give us 8 each time out.

Hernandez has done nothing but lead his last two leagues in K's, won lots of games, kept his team in most of the games he's started. I get that you think hes nothing, but you're probably going to be wrong in your assessment. The kid has talent, and lots of it.

You say he's too unfinished at this point in his career. He's 23 for God's sake, you make it sound like hes 28 and toiling around in AA ball.

As to the topic, I think Hoes falls in right at number 10, on the OH list.

Haha, this is one of the most ridiculous posts I've ever read.

First of all, Billy Rowell isn't even mentioned in this thread and show me where I said he's the next A-Rod?

As for Hernandez, where did I say that he was nothing? I think he will be a good middle reliever/set-up man. Last I checked that was something. The majority of scouts agree with me on that one. I'm not brutal on Hernandez at all, I'm just pointing out why I don't think he'll be an effective ML starter.

The fact that he is 23, still has command issues, can't go deep into games, has only two pitches(one of which is just an average offering), and gets away with pitching up in the zone, is all cause for concern. Some people on here choose to ignore these factors, I do not.

I am as entitled to my opinion as anyone on here, if you don't like it, don't read it. But just because I point out causes for concern and weaknesses of a prospect does not give you the right to slam me and put words into mouth.

[slappy12]

Haha, this is one of the most ridiculous posts I've ever read.

First of all, Billy Rowell isn't even mentioned in this thread and show me where I said he's the next A-Rod?

As for Hernandez, where did I say that he was nothing? I think he will be a good middle reliever/set-up man. Last I checked that was something. The majority of scouts agree with me on that one. I'm not brutal on Hernandez at all, I'm just pointing out why I don't think he'll be an effective ML starter.

The fact that he is 23, still has command issues, can't go deep into games, has only two pitches(one of which is just an average offering), and gets away with pitching up in the zone, is all cause for concern. Some people on here choose to ignore these factors, I do not.

I am as entitled to my opinion as anyone on here, if you don't like it, don't read it. But just because I point out causes for concern and weaknesses of a prospect does not give you the right to slam me and put words into mouth.

Most scout that I talked to agree that he could be a legit set-up/closer type, which is a difference. Now let me ask you a question. . . If his command issue go away and he back at '07(which you seem to ignore) and as Frobby pointed out:

Also, his walk rate at Frederick was much lower, so it's not like he has a long history of putting up high walk totals.

what then?