What are your expectations for Santander and Hays in 2021?

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Expectations and projections aren't worth the paper they're printed on.  He could do what we say or he could play in 20 games and miss the season with injury or hit .240 with 18 homers and 60 RBI.  IF he stays healthy, I think our numbers are realistic.  Expect and hope are two different things but I wouldn't be surprised if he did 32/105.

The homers and RBIs are possible..expecting him to have a 900 OPs is crazy to me.  Not saying he can’t do it but expecting makes no sense imo. (I know you’re is at 850..that’s certainly more realistic)

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The homers and RBIs are possible..expecting him to have a 900 OPs is crazy to me.  Not saying he can’t do it but expecting makes no sense imo. (I know you’re is at 850..that’s certainly more realistic)

Santander will play all of the 2021 regular season at age 26.  He is still improving.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Santander will play all of the 2021 regular season at age 26.  He is still improving.

That’s fine...and I agree he is improving but there is a difference between improving and taking a massive leap.

I know  how much weight you put on SSS but last year, he had 165 PA.  He did that in less than 1/4 of a season.  While that’s something, it’s more nothing than something.

First and foremost, he has to show he can play a full season.  He has never played more than 93 ML games in any season.  He has to prove that not only can he stay healthy and play everyday but that playing everyday won’t wear him down as the season goes on.  In 2019, he had 380ish PA and his OPs was under 600 for the last month of the season.  Did he wear down?  Just got cold?  Who k laws but he has to show that he can do it over 550+ at bats.

He has basically shown, so far, that he is a guy that will hit 260-265.  Could that improve?  Sure.  Do I expect him to take some huge leap?  No way.  I would expect him to be in the 255-280 range.  Not a terribly low floor but not a high ceiling either.  
 

As Frobby mentioned, his ISO isn’t likely to be sustainable, so predicting a slugging around 500 (career 476) makes sense to me.  That is improvement.

Its the OBP that gets me here.  His just doesn’t walk much.  Yes, in the SSS of last year, his Bb rate improved a little.  Could it go to 7 or even 8%?  Yes, I think it can.  As he shows more power and continues to improve, it’s possible teams stay away from him more.  If he does that, that brings him into the Nunez area of walk rates.  Nunez was roughly a 250/310 hitter with a 7.5ish% walk rate.  As I said, I would expect Santander to have a better BA and that is what will drive that OBP.  So, even if he got into those Nunez rates, we are still talking a 315-340 OBP.  
 

RZ’s projection is on the high side of a reasonable ceiling.  Reasonable being defined as something that you don’t have to sit there and be overly optimistic to say he can get there.  Playing the odds so to speak.

Im just not sure where you think he can realistically add another 50 points of OPS. Especially when you factor in the idea that you are essentially saying if he has an 800-850 OPS, that you would be disappointed in his season. 3 of the last 4 years, we have seen about an average of 25 players have a 900 OPS or higher.  That includes the SSS of last year.  Prior to that stretch, it was usually in the 15 player range.  
 

I think Mancini is a more complete hitter than Santander is.  You are essentially saying Santander will take the same leap Mancini did in 2019.  One difference is that Mancini had already shown he could play a full season and that he could hit in the 290s at the ML level.  His leap was still totally unexpected, at least to the level it went and I would be surprised if he got to that level again.  Again, it’s possible...but I think it’s over the top to say it should happen.  Let’s see if he can even play 120 games first.

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

I also think .900 OPS is very optimistic for Santander, when you consider that his .890 last year was built on a .315 ISO.    That’s Chris Davis in his best seasons-type power.   There were only six major league qualifiers last year with a .315+ ISO, and five in 2019.   I think Santander has nice power but not at that level.   Anything over .200-.225 would be gravy.    

Just to elaborate on this, here’s a comparison of Santander’s actual numbers from 2020 compared to his expected numbers based on quality of contact:

BA .261 vs. xBA .286

SLG .575 vs. xSLG .510

wOBA .358 vs. xwOBA .338.

The gap between his xBA and xSLG (call it xISO) is .224.    For me that’s a more realistic predicter of Santander’s ISO than his actual .314 from last year.    

The good news in here is that Santander’s xBA is 25 points higher than his actual BA.    Philip pointed out that Santander had a low .248 BABIP, and it looks like at least some of that was due to poor luck.    

Having looked at all this, I think my projection of .775-.800 OPS was a little conservative and I’d boost it to the .800-.825 bracket.   I continue to think .900 is very aggressive.   At the same time, Santander is still relatively young and inexperienced, so maybe he’ll prove to be better than I expect in 2021.   

 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just to elaborate on this, here’s a comparison of Santander’s actual numbers from 2020 compared to his expected numbers based on quality of contact:

BA .261 vs. xBA .286

SLG .575 vs. xSLG .510

wOBA .358 vs. xwOBA .338.

The gap between his xBA and xSLG (call it xISO) is .224.    For me that’s a more realistic predicter of Santander’s ISO than his actual .314 from last year.    

The good news in here is that Santander’s xBA is 25 points higher than his actual BA.    Philip pointed out that Santander had a low .248 BABIP, and it looks like at least some of that was due to poor luck.    

Having looked at all this, I think my projection of .775-.800 OPS was a little conservative and I’d boost it to the .800-.825 bracket.   I continue to think .900 is very aggressive.   At the same time, Santander is still relatively young and inexperienced, so maybe he’ll prove to be better than I expect in 2021.   

 

Yes the BABiP was low and unlucky in 2020 but so what?  Usually, I think that’s important but we are still talking less than 1/4 of the at bats in a full season.  Those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

That being said, he has never had a real high BABIP in his career.  I don’t know if that is a trend or something you gloss over because of the limited number of at bats and SSS in any given season.

[Jammer7]

I admit that my expectations are aggressive, no doubt. But that is what I expect from their talent and growth. Both are quite capable of taking the next steps and having these kinds of numbers. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes the BABiP was low and unlucky in 2020 but so what?  Usually, I think that’s important but we are still talking less than 1/4 of the at bats in a full season.  Those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.

That being said, he has never had a real high BABIP in his career.  I don’t know if that is a trend or something you gloss over because of the limited number of at bats and SSS in any given season.

I would think that a low number of at bats is not really a reason to disregard a low BABIP.    To me it’s an indication that the gap is likely to narrow as PA increase, meaning Santander’s BA would rise.

The other trend that was good for Santander was his K% was easily the lowest of his career.   If he can maintain that rate (15.9%) he should be quite dangerous.   

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would think that a low number of at bats is not really a reason to disregard a low BABIP.    To me it’s an indication that the gap is likely to narrow as PA increase, meaning Santander’s BA would rise.

The other trend that was good for Santander was his K% was easily the lowest of his career.   If he can maintain that rate (15.9%) he should be quite dangerous.   

I think you can disregard basically every number, in terms of using it for predictions, in a SSS.  

He could go 8 for his next 8 and that BABiP would probably soar into the average range.  

[wildcard]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine...and I agree he is improving but there is a difference between improving and taking a massive leap.

I know  how much weight you put on SSS but last year, he had 165 PA.  He did that in less than 1/4 of a season.  While that’s something, it’s more nothing than something.

First and foremost, he has to show he can play a full season.  He has never played more than 93 ML games in any season.  He has to prove that not only can he stay healthy and play everyday but that playing everyday won’t wear him down as the season goes on.  In 2019, he had 380ish PA and his OPs was under 600 for the last month of the season.  Did he wear down?  Just got cold?  Who k laws but he has to show that he can do it over 550+ at bats.

He has basically shown, so far, that he is a guy that will hit 260-265.  Could that improve?  Sure.  Do I expect him to take some huge leap?  No way.  I would expect him to be in the 255-280 range.  Not a terribly low floor but not a high ceiling either.  
 

As Frobby mentioned, his ISO isn’t likely to be sustainable, so predicting a slugging around 500 (career 476) makes sense to me.  That is improvement.

Its the OBP that gets me here.  His just doesn’t walk much.  Yes, in the SSS of last year, his Bb rate improved a little.  Could it go to 7 or even 8%?  Yes, I think it can.  As he shows more power and continues to improve, it’s possible teams stay away from him more.  If he does that, that brings him into the Nunez area of walk rates.  Nunez was roughly a 250/310 hitter with a 7.5ish% walk rate.  As I said, I would expect Santander to have a better BA and that is what will drive that OBP.  So, even if he got into those Nunez rates, we are still talking a 315-340 OBP.  
 

RZ’s projection is on the high side of a reasonable ceiling.  Reasonable being defined as something that you don’t have to sit there and be overly optimistic to say he can get there.  Playing the odds so to speak.

Im just not sure where you think he can realistically add another 50 points of OPS. Especially when you factor in the idea that you are essentially saying if he has an 800-850 OPS, that you would be disappointed in his season. 3 of the last 4 years, we have seen about an average of 25 players have a 900 OPS or higher.  That includes the SSS of last year.  Prior to that stretch, it was usually in the 15 player range.  
 

I think Mancini is a more complete hitter than Santander is.  You are essentially saying Santander will take the same leap Mancini did in 2019.  One difference is that Mancini had already shown he could play a full season and that he could hit in the 290s at the ML level.  His leap was still totally unexpected, at least to the level it went and I would be surprised if he got to that level again.  Again, it’s possible...but I think it’s over the top to say it should happen.  Let’s see if he can even play 120 games first.

You can't even keep straight what you make up and what is real.  I never said Especially when you factor in the idea that you are essentially saying if he has an 800-850 OPS, that you would be disappointed in his season.   You said that. Trying to put words in my mouth is offensive.  

I am fine with 270/325/575 in 550 at bats.  That means he does  not  have to play everyday.  Diaz can back him up when he needs a break or is a little banged up.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I admit that my expectations are aggressive, no doubt. But that is what I expect from their talent and growth. Both are quite capable of taking the next steps and having these kinds of numbers. 

I don’t see how anyone can predict those leaps when these guys can’t even show they can play even 65% of a season yet.

I don’t see Hays as ever being able to be much more than a 325 OBP guy.  He just doesn’t have a great approach.  I like him and do feel he can be what Adam Jones typically was but hard for me to think he will be much more than that.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You can't even keep straight what you make up and what is real.  I never said Especially when you factor in the idea that you are essentially saying if he has an 800-850 OPS, that you would be disappointed in his season.   You said that. Trying to put words in my mouth is offensive.  

I am fine with 270/325/575 in 550 at bats.  That means he does  not  have to play everyday.  Diaz can back him up when he needs a break or is a little banged up.

If you say I should do something and you don’t do it, that would mean you are disappointed.

The word should means you think it’s probable.  If you think something is probable and they fall well short of what is probable, logic says you would then be disappointed.

I’m expecting him to be in the 780-825 area.  If he ends up 750 or lower, I would certainly be disappointed in that season.      That would represent a similar difference in expected production from what I’m saying vs what you are saying if he ends up in the 850ish range.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you say I should do something and you don’t do it, that would mean you are disappointed.

The word should means you think it’s probable.  If you think something is probable and they fall well short of what is probable, logic says you would then be disappointed.

I’m expecting him to be in the 780-825 area.  If he ends up 750 or lower, I would certainly be disappointed in that season.      That would represent a similar difference in expected production from what I’m saying vs what you are saying if he ends up in the 850ish range.

You are delusional.   You can't make things up, repeat them and then pretend that they are  true.      

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine...and I agree he is improving but there is a difference between improving and taking a massive leap.

I know  how much weight you put on SSS but last year, he had 165 PA.  He did that in less than 1/4 of a season.  While that’s something, it’s more nothing than something.

First and foremost, he has to show he can play a full season.  He has never played more than 93 ML games in any season.  

* * *
Let’s see if he can even play 120 games first.

This was a very good, long post and I agree with it, including Santander needing to prove he can stay healthy.   I just singled out this part to point out that Santander played 141 games between the majors and the minors in 2019, so saying he’s never played more than 93 ML games in a season is accurate but could be misleading when it comes to his health.    He did not have any DL time that year in either the majors or the minors.  Unfortunately, that has been the exception rather than the rule.   But I’m hopeful Santander can stay healthy in 2021, and 2019 is evidence that he’s capable of staying healthy.  

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you can disregard basically every number, in terms of using it for predictions, in a SSS.  

He could go 8 for his next 8 and that BABiP would probably soar into the average range.  

I’ll ask Drungo to weigh in on this whenever he gets around to reading this.   

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You are delusional.   You can't make things up, repeat them and then pretend that they are  true.      

Lol..hilarious that you would call anyone delusional.  That word will be on your tombstone.

And what I said isn’t made up.  It’s true.