What are your expectations for Santander and Hays in 2021?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

We see things differently.

I see guys who didn't have very good baseball minds who tried to take way too active a hand in personnel decisions.

Guys who made emotional rather than baseball decisions.

Guys who were homers.

Guys who pissed away 359 million bucks on arguably the worst 7 FA decisions that could have been made.

But to say it was because they didn't want to win and just wanted to enrich themselves is silly. If that was the case they'd have simply pocketed the coin.

Are they cheaping out now?  Hell yeah. Best thing they could possibly do.... For now.

Why spend money until it matters?

Depends on what they are and are not spending money on.

I'm fine with the low ML payroll for instance.

[owknows]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Depends on what they are and are not spending money on.

I'm fine with the low ML payroll for instance.

Yes.

Should have been more explicit. Why spend money on ML players until some critical mass is within reach?

And hopefully then there will be a time to ease that limitation.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, owknows said:

We see things differently.

I see guys who didn't have very good baseball minds who tried to take way too active a hand in personnel decisions.

Guys who made emotional rather than baseball decisions.

Guys who were homers.

Guys who pissed away 359 million bucks on arguably the worst 7 FA decisions that could have been made.

But to say it was because they didn't want to win and just wanted to enrich themselves is silly. If that was the case they'd have simply pocketed the coin.

Are they cheaping out now?  Hell yeah. Best thing they could possibly do.... For now.

Why spend money until it matters?

The idea that they have people buying into the idea that’s it’s ok to not spend money and let opportunities go by them is very sad.

 

And yes, their idiotic decision making is why this team was so for so long.  That is all part of how horrible they are.

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The idea that they have people buying into the idea that’s it’s ok to not spend money and let opportunities go by them is very sad.

 

And yes, their idiotic decision making is why this team was so for so long.  That is all part of how horrible they are.

I guess you have to characterize what represents an "opportunity"

I would suggest that it is possible to reach a point where divesting yourself of existing talent in exchange for restocking future talent makes sense. Our farm system was a virtual desert. Largely because we leveraged the future for the now a few times too many.

Whether you agree with the approach or not, a rebuild cycle is a pretty common strategy in pro sports.  Sell off today... accumulate and develop young talent, and then begin adding strategic pieces as your young talent matures.

Spending a boatload of FA money now... without the bolus of young talent to build around would be contrary to the aims of that approach. And it would make less of that money available when you actually want it.

You don't have to agree with the approach.. but I think it's a little disingenuous to suggest that people who are in agreement with the approach are gullible rubes who "buy into" a deception. Or that the people executing the strategy are acting in bad faith.

Why not just say "I think it's a bad strategy"?

What attack it's proponents? I don't get it.

[Frobby]

I disagree strongly that the O’s should be spending much more money on payroll during the rebuild.     I’m happy with the approach Elias is taking.    

[Sports Guy]

Where I used to post, there was a poster who used to strongly argue against rebuilding.  I disagree with many of aspects of his plan and how he thought the Os should go about things however, the one thing he was dead on about is that rebuilding doesn’t bring you anything unique outside of the (hopefully) #1 pick and more draft allotment money.

Outside of that, rebuilding doesn’t provide you anything that you can’t do already.  For example, the Dodgers continue to spend internationally, draft and develop well, play their young guys every year, etc...They draft near the end of every round every year and it hasn’t mattered.  Those are all of the things people will point to that you should do with a rebuild yet none of them are exclusive to whether you win 60 games lose 60 games.

And btw, let’s remember that a lot of our better prospects were here before Elias.

I was perfectly fine with them tanking early on for the high picks...but I’m not ok with it now.  What we saw at the end of last year is what I was hoping for in 2020..a lot of young talent making it’s way up here and getting that experience.  We should see a lot more of that in 2021. However, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t also make trades, spend wisely in FA, etc..There is no reason for this team to field a team that would be lucky to win 70 games in 2021.  I’m not saying they need a 150M payroll in 2021 but they should be fielding a team very capable of being a 500 team provided that the young guys perform.  2022 should be the year this team is contending.

The Orioles (and every other team) will never be good if their young talent doesn’t develop.  That’s just reality.  Those guys need to be able to play and I would agree that you don’t block those players from playing.  But the Os have room in several areas of the team to add higher quality talent and they are hiding behind the rebuilding idea to not do it.  And the idea that many of you fans are ok with that is sad to me.  You expect so little from this team right now and that is all they have given you for the last 3 years.  They have saved a ton of money and yet you buy into the “we are poor” mantra.  I just don’t get that. 
 

The Os are one of the few teams in the league right now that can use their payroll as an advantage.  Take on a bad contract for a top prospect.  Sign a FA that normally wouldn’t come here.  Trade for a guy on a higher but reasonable contract.  Things like that but they aren’t even considering those things and the fan base is content with that.  I don’t get it.  

[owknows]

Advantages of rebuilding:

Trading existing talent for young talent to build the farm

Moving up in the draft, allowing you to stock young talent in the system

Aging out old bad contracts, and divesting yourself of financial burden of current talent you traded'

Building a nucleus of young talent with significant time under team control, at reasonable cost

Being in a good financial position to add and maintain strategic pieces when the team begins to blossom

 

These are the advantages of rebuilding. You may not agree, but I'm fine with that. I would appreciate it though, if you could restrain the impulse to argue disingenuously by saying things like:

" You expect so little from this team right now and that is all they have given you for the last 3 years.  They have saved a ton of money and yet you buy into the “we are poor” mantra.  I just don’t get that."

Honest discussions proceed by you stating your position, and then me stating mine. When you misrepresent my position, and then proceed to argue against your misrepresentation, you employ a logical fallacy called a "straw man" and create animosity. I don't "buy into" any "we are poor" mantra. This is a rather simplistic misinterpretation of fact.

My position is that the Orioles as an organization are employing a strategy. A strategy of fiscal discipline to achieve a goal. It is a strategy I would employ myself in similar circumstances. Patience, discipline, development, growth, and success. It seems that the "patience" part is exceedingly difficult. 

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

Advantages of rebuilding:

Trading existing talent for young talent to build the farm

Moving up in the draft, allowing you to stock young talent in the system

Aging out old bad contracts, and divesting yourself of financial burden of current talent you traded'

Building a nucleus of young talent with significant time under team control, at reasonable cost

Being in a good financial position to add and maintain strategic pieces when the team begins to blossom

 

These are the advantages of rebuilding. You may not agree, but I'm fine with that. I would appreciate it though, if you could restrain the impulse to argue disingenuously by saying things like:

" You expect so little from this team right now and that is all they have given you for the last 3 years.  They have saved a ton of money and yet you buy into the “we are poor” mantra.  I just don’t get that."

Honest discussions proceed by you stating your position, and then me stating mine. When you misrepresent my position, and then proceed to argue against your misrepresentation, you employ a logical fallacy called a "straw man" and create animosity. I don't "buy into" any "we are poor" mantra. This is a rather simplistic misinterpretation of fact.

My position is that the Orioles as an organization are employing a strategy. A strategy of fiscal discipline to achieve a goal. It is a strategy I would employ myself in similar circumstances. Patience, discipline, development, growth, and success. It seems that the "patience" part is exceedingly difficult. 

 

Not one thing you named can’t be done whether you are rebuilding or not.

Now, we fundamentally agree that it’s easier to do some of those things when you set the bar very low, which is essentially what you are doing when you say we are rebuilding.  You are saying, we don’t want to win.  So yes, it’s easier to do things when you don’t care about winning BUT you can win and do those things.  

As for the second part of your post, that’s just semantics.  Again, there is nothing about what the team is doing that is unique to winning long term outside of getting the highest pick possible and if you don’t get that first or even second pick, the WAR differences become very small throughout the first round.  Like I said, I was good with a complete tank job early on.  I felt they had to tear everything down, get the highest pick possible, etc...I was perfectly fine with not trying to win.  However, I wanted them to do more for 2020 and I sure as hell want more for 2021.  You have already done many of the things you are talking about.  Now it’s time to try and get real Ws and start building towards contending.

[CarrRun49]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not one thing you named can’t be done whether you are rebuilding or not.

Now, we fundamentally agree that it’s easier to do some of those things when you set the bar very low, which is essentially what you are doing when you say we are rebuilding.  You are saying, we don’t want to win.  So yes, it’s easier to do things when you don’t care about winning BUT you can win and do those things.  

As for the second part of your post, that’s just semantics.  Again, there is nothing about what the team is doing that is unique to winning long term outside of getting the highest pick possible and if you don’t get that first or even second pick, the WAR differences become very small throughout the first round.  Like I said, I was good with a complete tank job early on.  I felt they had to tear everything down, get the highest pick possible, etc...I was perfectly fine with not trying to win.  However, I wanted them to do more for 2020 and I sure as hell want more for 2021.  You have already done many of the things you are talking about.  Now it’s time to try and get real Ws and start building towards contending.

Agreed with most of your points.  Another huge component of OUR rebuild, was re-entering (not sure if we were ever there or not) the international FA market.  This will have a great impact on our long term success and developing the young talent that will take years to reap the rewards.  I would say that put us a bit more behind, than your standard rebuild from the ground up. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, CarrRun49 said:

Agreed with most of your points.  Another huge component of OUR rebuild, was re-entering (not sure if we were ever there or not) the international FA market.  This will have a great impact on our long term success and developing the young talent that will take years to reap the rewards.  I would say that put us a bit more behind, than your standard rebuild from the ground up. 

Ok but you don’t need to lose 100 games to be in the Intl FA market.  That is totally separate from what you do on the field in the majors.

Most of the best and winningest organizations in the sport participate heavily in that market and they don’t have a spending advantage to do that.

[owknows]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I felt they had to tear everything down, get the highest pick possible, etc...I was perfectly fine with not trying to win.  However, I wanted them to do more for 2020 and I sure as hell want more for 2021.  You have already done many of the things you are talking about.  Now it’s time to try and get real Ws and start building towards contending.

So our primary disagreement seems to be when (and how aggressively) they should have begun the ascent.

You suggest that 2020 would have been the time.

I personally think that attempts to significantly change the fortunes of the team won't be sustainable until the first cluster of quality starting pitching progresses into the majors. Which will be late 2021 into the 2022 season.

We're not that far from one another it seems.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

So our primary disagreement seems to be when (and how aggressively) they should have begun the ascent.

You suggest that 2020 would have been the time.

I personally think that attempts to significantly change the fortunes of the team won't be sustainable until the first cluster of quality starting pitching progresses into the majors. Which will be late 2021 into the 2022 season.

We're not that far from one another it seems.

Totally disagree with you because I’m not asking them to do anything that hurts their future.  

[owknows]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Totally disagree with you because I’m not asking them to do anything that hurts their future.  

I believe that you believe that.

But I also believe that THEY (the front office and ownership) believe that.

And that you and the front office can disagree as to what is best for the team.

And that this doesn't mean that the organization is "not trying to win" as you've stated many times previously.

It simply means that they have a strategy of their own that does not coincide with yours.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, owknows said:

I believe that you believe that.

But I also believe that THEY (the front office and ownership) believe that.

And that you and the front office can disagree as to what is best for the team.

And that this doesn't mean that the organization is "not trying to win" as you've stated many times previously.

It simply means that they have a strategy of their own that does not coincide with yours.

They are absolutely not trying to win.  There is no reasonable argument suggesting that they are.  
 

You can try to dress it up to sound as good as possible but winning is far from their top priority for 2021.

And again, nothing the organization is doing right now needs to be done while only winning 65-70 games.  They can do everything they are doing and still win 80+ games. 
 

Now, I agree that wanting them to try to win now needs to be done carefully and not irresponsibly. You don’t do it while harming the team long term.

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They are absolutely not trying to win.  There is no reasonable argument suggesting that they are.  
 

You can try to dress it up to sound as good as possible but winning is far from their top priority for 2021.

 

And this is where we depart from discussion into emotion.

You seem unable to consider the possibility that any strategy other than yours is reasonable.

And you suggest that you are capable of divining the motives of the owners and the front office.

And that you condemn their motives.

I don't see anything productive coming from that, so I'll leave it at that.

Edited December 1, 2020 by owknows
typo correction