BA's First 2009 Mock Draft

[JTrea81]

I'd be surprised to see the Mariners pass up on pitching because besides Aumont, they don't really have a lot in their system...

[Pruke]

I think the early estimations are always premature.

But radar screen should have the right 'dots'.

Does anyone have any examples of 'season before' estimations that completely changed based on the peformance the next year?

Not based on injuries (which you can understand why someone might fall), but true performance, perhaps additional scouting.

OR someone who shot up the ranks.

Was Posey really rated as highly before the season? I know he was someone people had their eye on, but I can't recall if he was a pre-season top 10 pick.

[Stotle]

I think the early estimations are always premature.

But radar screen should have the right 'dots'.

Does anyone have any examples of 'season before' estimations that completely changed based on the peformance the next year?

Not based on injuries (which you can understand why someone might fall), but true performance, perhaps additional scouting.

OR someone who shot up the ranks.

Was Posey really rated as highly before the season? I know he was someone people had their eye on, but I can't recall if he was a pre-season top 10 pick.

Last year Tim Melville dropped from top 5 pick to 4th rounder, based on in-season performance.

Posey was outside most scouts' top 10 before destroying everyone his junior year.

Crow was he flavor of the month at the end of the Cape League, but was inconsistent in his junior year and really lost any chance to go in the top 3 based on performance.

Gordon Beckham raised his profile with his in-season performance.

Castro came out of nowhere to go number 10 to Houston. He was always a first round talent, but I don't know anyone who thought he'd go top 10.

[rhall]

It don't have any huge issues with this board. 1-5 is pretty solid, and I guess the rest could be pretty solid, as well. I think Purke and Volz are too high and I can't see why Matt Davidson wouldn't be in the top 10.

I also think Jordan's preferences will have a much greater effect on the BAL draft than anything MacPhail might have to say. Don't get me wrong, I think MacPhail and Angelos have to sign-off, but I don't see why you have a Scouting Director if the GM is going to call the shots on draft day. MacPhail can't possibly keep track of the draft class on top of his other responsibilities.

Absolutely agree. This is what Jordan is paid to do, and this past year MacPhail said all the right things to support that fact. MacPhail stated how much he trusts Jordan, and so far it looks like nothing has happened to changed that.

[Camden_yardbird]

Frankly, I would be surprised if the Pirates select a pitcher. If my memory serves me right, their luck with 1st round pitchers is not that great.

I actually think this is exactly why they do select a pitcher. Remember it was littlefield and not huntington selecting those pitchers. The pirates cupboard is pretty bare when it comes to pitching and Ohlendorf and Karstans in the rotation can only last so long.

I wouldn't be suprised if White was exactly the type of pitcher they went after. This year they chose largely college talent, and White looks like he has a pretty good shot to at least make some impact in the majors.

I do think they will avoid Boras clients. I think the Alvarez thing was as much a shot at Coonelly as it was about Boras being mad about the Posey contract. Coonelly and Boras really are locked in an epic Good v. Evil battle to the end.

[allstar1579]

Green is the one I'm hoping for this year, but there are a lot of surprises to be had in the coming season. A little too early to know who is going to develop this year and who is not.

Who knows, Gibson could be putting on weight now, end up throwing in the mid-high 90's and go before Strasburg. I love this time of year

[birdman57]

I doubt we go the HS route here. My choice would be Crow as he and Matusz could arrive in Baltimore almost simultaneously. Seems like a no-brainer:)

[tylerfrombelair]

Lefthanded starting pitcher out of high school in the top 5 picks... sound familiar?

[Duke2010]

Lefthanded starting pitcher out of high school in the top 5 picks... sound familiar?

I think its very unfair to categorize Matzek with Loewen straight off the bat. He could have an injury riddled career, or he could fulfill his highest ceiling and follow in the footsteps of Brian Matusz or even another Prep lefty Clayton Kershaw. Who knows, but if they kid has the talent to become a great pitcher then why not go for him?

I have a question regarding Aaron Crow. Does anyone know how much interest Jordan had in Crow last year? I'd love to snatch Crow next year, but if Jordan didn't have a very high opinion of him then I guess I better not get my hopes up too much.

[rhall]

I think its very unfair to categorize Matzek with Loewen straight off the bat. He could have an injury riddled career, or he could fulfill his highest ceiling and follow in the footsteps of Brian Matusz or even another Prep lefty Clayton Kershaw. Who knows, but if they kid has the talent to become a great pitcher then why not go for him?

I have a question regarding Aaron Crow. Does anyone know how much interest Jordan had in Crow last year? I'd love to snatch Crow next year, but if Jordan didn't have a very high opinion of him then I guess I better not get my hopes up too much.

I'm not sure how much interest Jordan had in Crow last year. I believe they were scouting him throughout the year, especially when he was throwing 40-some-odd scoreless innings early in the year, but by the time the draft rolled around, I don't think they he was being heavily considered. They still saw Matusz as the best pitcher in the draft and he was considered an easier sign to boot.

I think there is a chance that Crow could be the O's choice. Right now, light years before the draft, there seems to be a little bit of a drop off from the top group of talent (Strasburg, Green & White) and the next tier (Ackley, Tate, Matzek, etc). Depending on how everyone plays this spring and progresses, especially the highschoolers, Crow could slide in between the two groups placing him right at the O's #5 pick. It's just way too early to tell right now.

I would recommend not getting your hopes up about anyone at this point. There's just too many variables this far in advance.

[eb45]

I'm hoping for Green, Strasburg, Ackley, or White (in that order), but I would not be upset with Matzek or Tate. The one top-tier guy that would really annoy me would be Crow. Absolute worst mechanics I've ever seen. Elbow surgery is a when, not an if.

As for those comparing Matzek to Loewen, the reason Loewen didn't make it was due to his injuries. Nothing to do with talent. Matzek has far better mechanics than Loewen, much less of an injury risk.

[rhall]

I'm hoping for Green, Strasburg, Ackley, or White (in that order), but I would not be upset with Matzek or Tate. The one top-tier guy that would really annoy me would be Crow. Absolute worst mechanics I've ever seen. Elbow surgery is a when, not an if.

As for those comparing Matzek to Loewen, the reason Loewen didn't make it was due to his injuries. Nothing to do with talent. Matzek has far better mechanics than Loewen, much less of an injury risk.

Obviously he doesn't do everything well, but I've read some pretty detailed scouting reports breaking down his mechanics, and there was plenty to like. For instance, he has almost perfect front side mechanics. I'd have to hunt the reports down to tell you more. The only things I can remember are the comments on the wrist wrap after his hand break and the praise on his front side mechanics. I'm pretty sure one of the following sites has a pretty good breakdown somewhere in their archives: www.saberscouting.com or www.baseball-intellect.com

[eb45]

It's not just the wrist wrap (though that's a pretty bug flaw). He also does the dreaded "Inverted W" (or at least the "Inverted L"), which also tends to lead to arm trouble.

[rhall]

It's not just the wrist wrap (though that's a pretty bug flaw). He also does the dreaded "Inverted W" (or at least the "Inverted L"), which also tends to lead to arm trouble.

Ah, I didn't remember the inverted W. That would definitely raise up some red flags. I'll have to watch some video of him again some time.

Just to clarify - I'm not arguing that the O's should take crow. If the top 4 you mentioned are taken, I think I'd prefer Matzek or Tate as well, but I'm not so heavily against taking Crow either.

[Rolotomassie]

Isn't an inverted W an M?:laughlol:

Also, I always thought Loewen had decent mechanics. He had good balance, went straight toward the plate, repeated his delivery (although something was causing him control problems). It was just that his elbow gave him pain anyway. Cabrera, Mickolio, Walker - now they have bad mechanics.