Tex or AJ

[waroriole]

I don't see how this is even debatable. On the one hand you have an oft-injured pitcher who is very inconsistent from one year to the next. On the other hand you have one of the elite hitters in baseball who also plays GG defense at a position we've been looking for since Palmeiro (the first time).

I know we need pitching, but this signing is about more than 2009. This is about building a team that can win and contend for the playoffs for 2009 and beyond. This is just a no-brainer IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ease my mind in that regard... Are there any examples... teams that you know of that have had success over a period of time with a player consuming 20-30% of payroll resources? Or are you thinking we could do something that hasn't really been successful for anyone else?

I think the Orioles, or any mid-market team, could be successful with one player consuming 30% of their payroll. The reason it's not been done yet is that the teams that typically sign players to $15-25M contracts already have the largest revenues and payrolls in baseball and one more $20M player isn't going to be 30% of budget. Teams like the Royals and Pirates simply don't sign players to $20M annual deals.

Think of it this way. Say the Marlins kept their current roster, with its 22.5M payroll. But they replaced Mike Jacobs with Mark Teixeira ($25M), and Mark Hendrickson with AJ Burnett ($15M). They'd likely be a 90+ win team for the foreseeable future. This despite Teixeira consuming 40% of payroll, and Burnett 25%.

[Tx Oriole]

I am just wondering if Tex was from say Texas or California would some on this board be wanting to sign him as they do now? To me it seems that since Tex is from Baltimore they have a lot more interst in him.

[geschinger]

Think of it this way. Say the Marlins kept their current roster, with its 22.5M payroll. But they replaced Mike Jacobs with Mark Teixeira ($25M), and Mark Hendrickson with AJ Burnett ($15M). They'd likely be a 90+ win team for the foreseeable future. This despite Teixeira consuming 40% of payroll, and Burnett 25%.

They might be successful early on but could it be sustainable? Say their budget is $100m... They would have more than 50% of their payroll tied up in 3 players (Hanley was signed to an extension). Does that leave enough resources left over to keep a portion of the players that are performing so well for cheap. I know there was some talk about ARod maybe going home at some point which would have provided a case study on whether that is a feasible way to compete over the long haul but unfortunately that never played out.

[oriolesacox]

I am just wondering if Tex was from say Texas or California would some on this board be wanting to sign him as they do now? To me it seems that since Tex is from Baltimore they have a lot more interst in him.

I want Tex because he's.. well.. Tex. It's cool that hes from Bmore but I would want him regardless.

[Frobby]

I don't see how this is even debatable. On the one hand you have an oft-injured pitcher who is very inconsistent from one year to the next. On the other hand you have one of the elite hitters in baseball who also plays GG defense at a position we've been looking for since Palmeiro (the first time).

I agree it's not a debatable decision, but I take issue with the statement that Burnett is "very inconsistent from one year to the next." His ERA+ the last 5 years had been 112, 115, 115, 119, 106. That's pretty consistent if you ask me. Health is an issue, consistency is not.

[clarence]

I think the front office will look at the bigger picture than 2009 and realize that whether they can move them or not, Huff, Ramon, Baez, Walker, and Mora all come off the books after 2009.

Without making any additions this offseason or next season, that would leave us with BRob after an extension, and Markakis after an extension, as the only players on the roster making more than $5M per year. (I am assuming of course that DCab isn't on the team or above this number due to arbitration). Sure, 2009 might be a little higher payroll than they would like, but seeing as how you shed all of that payroll and are probably better in 2010 makes it seem like going after Tex and AJ really hard doesn't do too much long-term damage.

I think a lot of people need to quit thinking in terms of 2009 so much, and realize what is done this offseason is really planning for a couple years down the road and beyond.

[JTrea81]

I am just wondering if Tex was from say Texas or California would some on this board be wanting to sign him as they do now? To me it seems that since Tex is from Baltimore they have a lot more interst in him.

It's a two way street. We have interest in him because he's from Baltimore and he has interest in us because he's from Baltimore and his connections to Roberts and Wieters.

He's also very signable and fills a huge need at 1B. The Orioles haven't had a match like this in some time...

[waroriole]

I agree it's not a debatable decision, but I take issue with the statement that Burnett is "very inconsistent from one year to the next." His ERA+ the last 5 years had been 112, 115, 115, 119, 106. That's pretty consistent if you ask me. Health is an issue, consistency is not.

I guess the inconsistency problem I have with Burnett is more related to his inability to stay healthy. But, I stand corrected about the ERA+, just looking back over his numbers I was surprised with how well he has done. With the kind of money he's expected to get though if he were to put up those numbers I would expect him to have no injury problems. Or, if he were to have injury problems I would expect numbers more similar to Sheets. But, there is a division played in argument to be made for AJ.

[Frobby]

I guess the inconsistency problem I have with Burnett is more related to his inability to stay healthy. But, I stand corrected about the ERA+, just looking back over his numbers I was surprised with how well he has done. With the kind of money he's expected to get though if he were to put up those numbers I would expect him to have no injury problems. Or, if he were to have injury problems I would expect numbers more similar to Sheets. But, there is a division played in argument to be made for AJ.

I definitely agree that his injury-proneness is an issue. Mitigating that is the fact that he stayed completely healthy this year, and has pitched a respectable number of innings over his three years in Toronto. But there's no question that there is a risk here.

[waroriole]

I definitely agree that his injury-proneness is an issue. Mitigating that is the fact that he stayed completely healthy this year, and has pitched a respectable number of innings over his three years in Toronto. But there's no question that there is a risk here.

I do have to disagree with the respectable number of innings pitched in Toronto. This is the only year he has pitched the number of innings I would expect from a guy with a 5/55 contract. The other two years were 135.2 and 165.2. That's just not acceptable for a guy making what he does. Now, if he were to put up a sub 3.00 ERA in those other two years I would not be as harsh on him. But 3.98 and 3.75 do not warrant the contract he has, given that he is not consistently healthy.

[DrungoHazewood]

I do have to disagree with the respectable number of innings pitched in Toronto. This is the only year he has pitched the number of innings I would expect from a guy with a 5/55 contract. The other two years were 135.2 and 165.2. That's just not acceptable for a guy making what he does. Now, if he were to put up a sub 3.00 ERA in those other two years I would not be as harsh on him. But 3.98 and 3.75 do not warrant the contract he has, given that he is not consistently healthy.

Let's say replacement level for a starter is an ERA of 6.00. A 4.00 is two runs per nine better than replacement. 165 innings of a 4.00 makes a pitcher about 35 runs over replacement. Or three and a half wins. For $11M a year that's about $3M per win.

That's not a bad deal at all. Three million per added win is probably among the best 1/3 or 1/4 of free agent pitching signings in the last five years.

[Frobby]

I do have to disagree with the respectable number of innings pitched in Toronto. This is the only year he has pitched the number of innings I would expect from a guy with a 5/55 contract. The other two years were 135.2 and 165.2. That's just not acceptable for a guy making what he does. Now, if he were to put up a sub 3.00 ERA in those other two years I would not be as harsh on him. But 3.98 and 3.75 do not warrant the contract he has, given that he is not consistently healthy.

I do understand where you are coming from. Still, 520 innings in three years isn't that bad, considering that when the Jays signed Burnett, he had never pitched more than about 460 innings in any three-year period. It would be interesting to go back and look at how many pitchers threw more than 520 innings over the last three years, and what their ERAs were. I'd bet you'd be surprised at how few saved as many runs as Burnett.

[waroriole]

Let's say replacement level for a starter is an ERA of 6.00. A 4.00 is two runs per nine better than replacement. 165 innings of a 4.00 makes a pitcher about 35 runs over replacement. Or three and a half wins. For $11M a year that's about $3M per win.

That's not a bad deal at all. Three million per added win is probably among the best 1/3 or 1/4 of free agent pitching signings in the last five years.

I'll defer to both your's and Frobby's knowledge over mine, but how do you think that those numbers will compare to the rest of FA starting pitching if his salary jumps to $14-15M per year.

[Sports Guy]

Ease my mind in that regard... Are there any examples... teams that you know of that have had success over a period of time with a player consuming 20-30% of payroll resources? Or are you thinking we could do something that hasn't really been successful for anyone else?

I am thinking of doing something never been done before.

I can't think of any instances where a team has done what I want the Orioles to do. I think it can work too.