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Who's the #13 prospect?


Tony-OH

Who's the number thirteen prospect?  

127 members have voted

  1. 1. Who's the number thirteen prospect?

    • Brad Bergesen
      48
    • Bobby Bundy
      11
    • Tyler Henson
      3
    • LJ Hoes
      46
    • Lou Montanez
      19

This poll is closed to new votes


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As much as a high ceiling is great, Hoes and Bundy are too far away from the majors a his point to be ranked here, IMO. Their floors right now are 'can't make it out of low A.'

I went with Montanez, because he's proven he can hit ML pitching decently. Bergesen is in a similar position, but his numbers were less eye popping and he's younger.

For Hoes or Bundy compared to Montanez as a 4h OF:

10% chance that he'll be a lot better than Montanez

10% a little better

10% at Montanez's level

10% he'll be worse

25% he'll be a career MiL

35% he'll never play in the ML

Kids out of high school are always a huge risk, and while both have good upsides, neither one looks to be a future star at this point.

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As much as a high ceiling is great, Hoes and Bundy are too far away from the majors a his point to be ranked here, IMO. Their floors right now are 'can't make it out of low A.'

I went with Montanez, because he's proven he can hit ML pitching decently. Bergesen is in a similar position, but his numbers were less eye popping and he's younger.

For Hoes or Bundy compared to Montanez as a 4h OF:

10% chance that he'll be a lot better than Montanez

10% a little better

10% at Montanez's level

10% he'll be worse

25% he'll be a career MiL

35% he'll never play in the ML

Kids out of high school are always a huge risk, and while both have good upsides, neither one looks to be a future star at this point.

Logically, this argument definitely makes sense. However, the way I look at it, if Hoes projects as a starting second baseman he should be ranked higher than someone (Montanez) who projects as a fourth outfielder.

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As much as a high ceiling is great, Hoes and Bundy are too far away from the majors a his point to be ranked here, IMO. Their floors right now are 'can't make it out of low A.'

I went with Montanez, because he's proven he can hit ML pitching decently. Bergesen is in a similar position, but his numbers were less eye popping and he's younger.

For Hoes or Bundy compared to Montanez as a 4h OF:

10% chance that he'll be a lot better than Montanez

10% a little better

10% at Montanez's level

10% he'll be worse

25% he'll be a career MiL

35% he'll never play in the ML

Kids out of high school are always a huge risk, and while both have good upsides, neither one looks to be a future star at this point.

I'm not sure what this means. Bundy was pretty widely considered a first-round type talent before his knee injury, and only slipped as far as he did due to signability. His upside is pretty obviously high.

By your rationale, any AAAA ballplayer is going to be a better prospect than someone in low-A (unless they're a "star"?). And that makes little sense.

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Since he's eligible for the list, I pick Montanez. He did win the triple crown and hit over .300 in Baltimore after all. I know he's not young, but the guy who played this year can be a starting left fielder in the major leagues. Let's hope he can sustain it.

Agreed. I have the same thinking, and that's why I went Montanez as well.

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I'm not sure what this means. Bundy was pretty widely considered a first-round type talent before his knee injury, and only slipped as far as he did due to signability. His upside is pretty obviously high.

By your rationale, any AAAA ballplayer is going to be a better prospect than someone in low-A (unless they're a "star"?). And that makes little sense.

By star, I mean someone who completely dominated the league. Rookie ball performances have little correlation with ML success.

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/bat_leaders.cgi?yid=2000&lvl=&lid=&sort=OPS

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/bat_leaders.cgi?yid=2001&lvl=&lid=&sort=OPS

High school stats are even worse.

If Montanez was a AAAA player, then the chance that Hoes or Bundy would be better than him would be 40%/35%, which puts them ahead. "Prospects" generally refers to someone who is still improving, which Montanez is, but it wouldn't apply to AAAA types, who have had their shot at the majors and did not succeed.

And talking about where Bundy could have been drafted is moot, because the injury could affect his chances of becoming a ML player.

If they have success over a longer period of time in either short A or low A, then their chances improve immensely.

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Based on upside alone, Hoes should be ahead of Bergesen. Bergesen is going to be a good swingman and middle reliever one day, but Hoes could be a great #2 hitter for years to come. I don't think we can really rank Bundy ahead of Hoes right now since his pro debut was so limited.

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