Who's the #15 prospect?

[wickedwitch]

Rats. I made that post, and I voted Bergesen for #14.

I wouldn't have had Bergesen at #14, but I was betting that Tony and OH did. And to be fair to Bergesen, he just might figure it out. Someone in that thread brought up Jamie Moyer, who struck out 4.75/9ip in his first 'AA' season, and then came back and struck out 9/9ip in 40+ innings the next year before being promoted.

There's certainly no reason why players in AA can't keep improving - especially the ones who started the year in A.

[Babypowder]

I'm going with Avery. I would rank them:

Avery

Miclat

Montanez

Henson

Bergesen

[McLovin]

My vote is for Henson. He has the right blend of youth, potential, athleticism, and (modest) results.

Avery reminds me too much of Pope in terms of being a project - he's too much of an unknown at this point.

[Sports Guy]

My vote is for Henson. He has the right blend of youth, potential, athleticism, and (modest) results.

Avery reminds me too much of Pope in terms of being a project - he's too much of an unknown at this point.

So is Bundy.

Avery pretty much has to be the pick here for the same reasons Bundy was the pick at #14.

[McLovin]

So is Bundy.

Avery pretty much has to be the pick here for the same reasons Bundy was the pick at #14.

Bundy isn't really anything like Avery.

Avery is an athletic, raw, toolsy guy who didn't really play baseball against any kind of competition. Avery was recruited more heavily as a football player and is a project.

Bundy was an elite pitching prospect playing on a good team that won a championship. He was heavily touted as one of the best baseball players in the county prior to his senior year.

[Stotle]

Bundy isn't really anything like Avery.

Avery is an athletic, raw, toolsy guy who didn't really play baseball against any kind of competition. Avery was recruited more heavily as a football player and is a project.

Bundy was an elite pitching prospect playing on a good team that won a championship. He was heavily touted as one of the best baseball players in the county prior to his senior year.

I sort of agree with this, but Bundy isn't as sure a thing as you seem to be making him out to be. His stuff is very good, and his command is impressive. Still, he runs into the Avery issue of facing very, very bad competition in HS. The Will Rogers League was bad. How bad?

This is Bundy's line pitching 3-4 MPHs slower than his previous summer's velos (U80s rather than L90-M90):

ERA – 0.80

WHIP – 0.35

IP – 54

SO – 111

BB – 6

H – 13

That's a really bad league...

Is Bundy good? Yes. Is he pretty refined for a HSer? Sure. Is this a good place for him to rank in the O's system? An enthusiastic yes. Would I call him one of the "elite" pitchers of the draft? Hmmmm. Probably not.

That's no indictment -- I just wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into the HS numbers. As an aside, I believe it was the third state championship in four years for Sperry HS.

[Sports Guy]

Bundy isn't really anything like Avery.

Avery is an athletic, raw, toolsy guy who didn't really play baseball against any kind of competition. Avery was recruited more heavily as a football player and is a project.

Bundy was an elite pitching prospect playing on a good team that won a championship. He was heavily touted as one of the best baseball players in the county prior to his senior year.

The point is they are both toolsy, high ceiling, high risk, high reward guys.

Avery was drafted very high, so obviously scouts liked him.

[McLovin]

I sort of agree with this, but Bundy isn't as sure a thing as you seem to be making him out to be.

Oh, by no means do I think Bundy is a sure thing. I just think that he has more of a baseball resume than Avery. Both have potential, and Avery might even have more potential given his lack of experience and tools. There are a lot of unknowns with Avery, and I just think that Bundy has a slightly better potential/experience ratio.

[McLovin]

The point is they are both toolsy, high ceiling, high risk, high reward guys.

Avery was drafted very high, so obviously scouts liked him.

I don't disagree, I just think there is much more risk with Avery. Much more potential as well... At the end of the day I just like Henson better, but I don't have the luxury/ability to compare the scouting reports...

[Stotle]

Oh, by no means do I think Bundy is a sure thing. I just think that he has more of a baseball resume than Avery. Both have potential, and Avery might even have more potential given his lack of experience and tools. There are a lot of unknowns with Avery, and I just think that Bundy has a slightly better potential/experience ratio.

Gotcha. I think that could be right. I also think it's interesting that Jordan grabbed two talented kids that faced mostly over-matched HSers. Gotta love the fact that he trusts the reads of his scouting department (and of course his own reads) and didn't shy away from the competition questions.

It helps that both showed well on the summer circuit, but still...

[Lucky Jim]

I sort of agree with this, but Bundy isn't as sure a thing as you seem to be making him out to be. His stuff is very good, and his command is impressive. Still, he runs into the Avery issue of facing very, very bad competition in HS. The Will Rogers League was bad. How bad?

This is Bundy's line pitching 3-4 MPHs slower than his previous summer's velos (U80s rather than L90-M90):

ERA – 0.80

WHIP – 0.35

IP – 54

SO – 111

BB – 6

H – 13

That's a really bad league...

Is Bundy good? Yes. Is he pretty refined for a HSer? Sure. Is this a good place for him to rank in the O's system? An enthusiastic yes. Would I call him one of the "elite" pitchers of the draft? Hmmmm. Probably not.

That's no indictment -- I just wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into the HS numbers. As an aside, I believe it was the third state championship in four years for Sperry HS.

I think it's about time our system had a guy with an 18.5:1 K/BB ratio.

[Frobby]

I don't think he'll make top 20, maybe 20. I think the next picks will be in this order:

Avery

Miclat

Henson

Rosa(upside)

?????

?????

Bergesen

Bergesen was 18 last year after doing well at Delmarva but struggling somewhat at Frederick. If being Eastern League pitcher of the year doesn't move him up in the rankings then I guess performance means nothing at all. I don't think Tony takes it that far so I expect Bergesen to appear soon.

[Stotle]

I think it's about time our system had a guy with an 18.5:1 K/BB ratio.

Silly, right? The bottom line is he threw strikes -- primarily FB/CB. FB mostly in the U80s (which is good but not crazy or anything) and no one could touch him.

[B-more]

Bergesen was 18 last year after doing well at Delmarva but struggling somewhat at Frederick. If being Eastern League pitcher of the year doesn't move him up in the rankings then I guess performance means nothing at all. I don't think Tony takes it that far so I expect Bergesen to appear soon.

I think one of the biggest things that is keeping Bergesen lower is how badly he did against LH hitters despite his good era, walk rate, and groundball rate. There are questions about his stuff, K rate, and future upside as well so I think that is why the OH hasn't ranked him that high yet. I do think he is going to go top 20 but probably wont get ranked until one or two more spots.

[McLovin]

Bergesen was 18 last year after doing well at Delmarva but struggling somewhat at Frederick. If being Eastern League pitcher of the year doesn't move him up in the rankings then I guess performance means nothing at all. I don't think Tony takes it that far so I expect Bergesen to appear soon.

That argument only makes sense if were talking about the exact same player pool. I'm not sure Bergesen is top 20, but what do I know...