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#15 Prospect - Xavier Avery


Tony-OH

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While I would've preferred we drafted Melville with our first pick in the 2nd round, you've gotta love someone whose major league comp is Carl Crawford.

Avery probably won't break into the majors for 4 or 5 seasons, but I'm looking forward to when he does. :)

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To me this guy has Darnell McDonald written all over him.

I was afraid someone was going to say that.

So—and this is not meant to be a snide question—for those who know: what makes Avery more likely to be successful than McDonald?

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I don't really like this pick. I know it is only 150+ abs but still. He struck out almost 1 out of every 3 abs and showed no power at all. Zero homers and a slugging % under .400. If he was that raw where this is considered a good season then i have to question why we'd make him a high 2nd round pick. I'm all for giving guys with upside the benefit of the doubt but Avery seems like such a long shot, I'd have put him a fair bit lower on the list.

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I'm trying to reconcile whether it's impressive that these young guys are above Bergesen, Montanez, Adams and Hensen or whether it's a knock on the latter.

I don't know what the answer would be if someone asked me who I'd rather have in the organization, Avery or the guys listed above. I think I might go with the guys listed above because - and I don't mean to be flip - I value baseball players. Tools matter, but natural ball players matter too. It's a balance for this list, but I don't think Avery met the criteria above the others at this time.

This player begs for patience and trust in Jordan and our MiL development staff.

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I'm trying to reconcile whether it's impressive that these young guys are above Bergesen, Montanez, Adams and Hensen or whether it's a knock on the latter.

I thought Henson's first year (like Avery, at age 18) would be an interesting comp:

Henson (Bluefield) -- .230/.314/.291, 18 BB vs. 49 K's in 148 AB

Avery (GCL) ------- .280/.333/.337, 10 BB vs. 51 K's in 175 AB

Taking into account that the Appalachian League is a bit more advanced than the GCL, they had pretty similar first years. Like Avery, Henson had a very high K rate right out of the box. Henson has made pretty good progress since then, so hopefully Avery can do the same.

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It's easy to be down on Avery because of his questionable K-Bb ratio and I'm certainly not thrilled with what he did in that department either. But, if you look at his numbers, he improved over the year and by august he had cut down his K's a bit and walked a bit more. He hit .300 over his last two months of the season and he's already a pretty good defensive player (someone Pope never was).

He very well could be the next Darnell McDonald since they are similar in build and have a similar background, but Avery has been showing the aptitude to learn. In the instructional leagues (look for something on this later today) he's made some adjustments and has looked very good down there.

He's very raw because he's coming out of a very poor high school program in a bad high school league. He's very strong for his size and the reports of him hitting balls out of the park in BP and in the instructional league games shows he's got some budding power.

Budding power and 80 speed, bats left-handed, and can already play a good defensive center field, I'll take that.

Now, the problem comes with the Orioles developmental side. They have yet to develop a high school hitter into a good major league hitter since Cal Ripken Jr.

With Rowell, Snyder, Adams, Henson, and now Hoes and Avery, I think this organization has the best high school drafted hitting prospects they've had in a long, long time. Now the interesting point will be to see if they can develop a few into major league ball players.

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It's easy to be down on Avery because of his questionable K-Bb ratio and I'm certainly not thrilled with what he did in that department either. But, if you look at his numbers, he improved over the year and by august he had cut down his K's a bit and walked a bit more. He hit .300 over his last two months of the season and he's already a pretty good defensive player (someone Pope never was).

He very well could be the next Darnall McDonald since they are similar in build and have a similar background, but avery has been showing the aptitude to learn. In the instructional leagues (look for something on this later today) he's made some adjustments and has looked very good down there.

He's very raw because he's coming out of a very poor high school program in a bad high school league. He's very strong for his size and the reports of him hitting balls out of the park in BP and in the instructional league games shows he's got some budding power.

Budding power and 80 speed, bats left-handed, and can already play a good defensive center field, I'll take that.

Now, the problem comes with the Orioles developmental side. They have yet to develop a high school hitter into a good major league hitter since Cal Ripken Jr.

With Rowell, Snyder, Adams, Henson, and now Hoes and Avery, I think this organization has the best high school drafted hitting prospects they've had in a long, long time. Now the interesting point will be to see if they can develop a few into major league ball players.

The Avery criticisms are a bit much for me too. JJ and virtually all draft day reports said Avery was very raw, but extremely athletic. That he did very well in showcase events, but faced a very low level of HS competition that hindered his development.

IMO, nothing has happened in Avery's efforts in his young career that is outside the range of reasonable expectations. Everything we've been told about this kid is happening and yet people completely ignore this, ignore everything written about him by the pundits on draft day and after and recall a failed top pick from a decade earlier and hint this pick is doomed to fail.

Avery may ultimately fail, as the odds are against him like most picks, but Avery brings a toolset to this organization not seen in many, many years. Tremendously athletic, 80 speed who already plays quality defense, good strength for his size and, as Tony notes, an aptitude for learning.

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It's easy to be down on Avery because of his questionable K-Bb ratio and I'm certainly not thrilled with what he did in that department either. But, if you look at his numbers, he improved over the year and by august he had cut down his K's a bit and walked a bit more. He hit .300 over his last two months of the season and he's already a pretty good defensive player (someone Pope never was).

He very well could be the next Darnall McDonald since they are similar in build and have a similar background, but avery has been showing the aptitude to learn. In the instructional leagues (look for something on this later today) he's made some adjustments and has looked very good down there.

He's very raw because he's coming out of a very poor high school program in a bad high school league. He's very strong for his size and the reports of him hitting balls out of the park in BP and in the instructional league games shows he's got some budding power.

Budding power and 80 speed, bats left-handed, and can already play a good defensive center field, I'll take that.

Now, the problem comes with the Orioles developmental side. They have yet to develop a high school hitter into a good major league hitter since Cal Ripken Jr.

With Rowell, Snyder, Adams, Henson, and now Hoes and Avery, I think this organization has the best high school drafted hitting prospects they've had in a long, long time. Now the interesting point will be to see if they can develop a few into major league ball players.

I agree with all of this, though I think his arm is a bit fringy for CF. I think he profiles best as a LF with plus-defense and some pop in his bat.

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