Jump to content

MLB Win Total Props...my best bets


SteveA

Recommended Posts

I don't actually bet these.   I do bet sports, but on a pretty small time basis ($10 is a typical bet, maybe $20 for NFL where I consistently come out ahead each year).   But I rarely have much more than $200 tied up in sports betting accounts, so the idea of making a $10 bet and then waiting 6 months to see it win or lose seems silly, and tying up a larger amount for 6 months puts too much of a dent in my day to day bankroll.   I enjoy the daily/weekly action more.

But if I were to make these plays, these are the ones I would play.   You can grade me in October.

Dodgers 103.5 
Yankees 97.5
Padres 93.5 -- I would play the OVER here.   The team looks stacked, and the bottom 3 teams in that division are fairly soft, and the AL West, who they face in interleague play, appears relatively weak to me.
Braves 91.5 -- I like the Braves a lot but the division is very tough so I pass on the over.
White Sox 90.5 -- I probably would have played an over before Jiminez got hurt.   I'll pass now.
Mets 90
Twins 89.5
Astros 87 
A's 86.5 -- Just not feeling it with the A's this year.   If all the young pitchers (Luzardo, Puk) perform, maybe they can be decent.   But they just don't look great to me.   I go with UNDER 86.5.
Blue Jays 86
Rays 86
Cardinals 86
Nationals 84.5 -- Scherzer a year older and perhaps starting to decline.   Bullpen still looks like a mess.   Tough division.  I say UNDER 84.5.
Brewers 83.5
Angels 83 -- Seattle and Texas are awful, Oakland is mediocre, Houston has some very iffy starting pitching.   The AL West is there for the taking and I think the Angels put it together this year.   OVER 83.
Phillies 81.5 -- Tried to talk myself into an over but the rotation wasn't strong enough.   Pass
Reds 81.5
Indians 81.5
Red Sox 79.5 -- rotation and bullpen look bad again.   After Bogaerts/Devers, the lineup doesn't scare me.   JD in decline, Moreland's bat gone.   Is Dalbec ready to put up big numbers?   All their new acquisitions are "just guys", useful but not scary to opposing pitchers...Hunter Renfroe, Kiki Hernandez, Marwin Gonzalez, Franchy Cordero.   UNDER 79.5.
Cubs 79 
Diamondbacks 75.5 -- this just looks like a bad team top to bottom.   UNDER 75.5.
Giants 73.5
Marlins 72.5 -- good young rotation.   Yes, it's tough in the best division in baseball, but I"m going to say OVER 72.5.
Tigers 68
Rangers 67.5 -- my 2021 hot take is that this is the worst team in baseball, or at least the worst one that doesn't play at the junction of three major American rivers.   UNDER 67.5.
Orioles 63.5 -- I'll put on the orange tinted glasses and say OVER 63.5.
Rockies 62.5
Pirates 58

So my recommended plays are:   Padres OVER 93.5, A's UNDER 86.5, Nationals UNDER 84.5, Angels OVER 83, Red Sox UNDER 79.5, Diamondbacks UNDER 75.5, Marlins OVER 72.5, Rangers UNDERR 67.5, Orioles OVER 63.5.

 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Phillies 81.5 -- Tried to talk myself into an over but the rotation wasn't strong enough.   Pass

Jeopardy James liked his props when he was getting himself set for life even before the game show thing.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2020/01/Diary-of-a-Mad-Sports-Bettor.pdf

Phillies UNDER I think the play there - I think the Marlins are to the Phillies as the Orioles are to the Red Sox - by September the worst team in the division could be muddier than I think most people would guess today.   Even Eno Sarris yesterday floated the Red Sox as a 2nd place possibility on the Rates and Barrels prediction podcast before Brittany Ghiroli gave the IMO better viewpoint the Red Sox are more like the Orioles than the Rays/Jays.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 5 months later...
On 4/1/2021 at 11:25 AM, SteveA said:

I don't actually bet these.   I do bet sports, but on a pretty small time basis ($10 is a typical bet, maybe $20 for NFL where I consistently come out ahead each year).   But I rarely have much more than $200 tied up in sports betting accounts, so the idea of making a $10 bet and then waiting 6 months to see it win or lose seems silly, and tying up a larger amount for 6 months puts too much of a dent in my day to day bankroll.   I enjoy the daily/weekly action more.

But if I were to make these plays, these are the ones I would play.   You can grade me in October.

Dodgers 103.5 
Yankees 97.5
Padres 93.5 -- I would play the OVER here.   The team looks stacked, and the bottom 3 teams in that division are fairly soft, and the AL West, who they face in interleague play, appears relatively weak to me.
Braves 91.5 -- I like the Braves a lot but the division is very tough so I pass on the over.
White Sox 90.5 -- I probably would have played an over before Jiminez got hurt.   I'll pass now.
Mets 90
Twins 89.5
Astros 87 
A's 86.5 -- Just not feeling it with the A's this year.   If all the young pitchers (Luzardo, Puk) perform, maybe they can be decent.   But they just don't look great to me.   I go with UNDER 86.5.
Blue Jays 86
Rays 86
Cardinals 86
Nationals 84.5 -- Scherzer a year older and perhaps starting to decline.   Bullpen still looks like a mess.   Tough division.  I say UNDER 84.5.
Brewers 83.5
Angels 83 -- Seattle and Texas are awful, Oakland is mediocre, Houston has some very iffy starting pitching.   The AL West is there for the taking and I think the Angels put it together this year.   OVER 83.
Phillies 81.5 -- Tried to talk myself into an over but the rotation wasn't strong enough.   Pass
Reds 81.5
Indians 81.5
Red Sox 79.5 -- rotation and bullpen look bad again.   After Bogaerts/Devers, the lineup doesn't scare me.   JD in decline, Moreland's bat gone.   Is Dalbec ready to put up big numbers?   All their new acquisitions are "just guys", useful but not scary to opposing pitchers...Hunter Renfroe, Kiki Hernandez, Marwin Gonzalez, Franchy Cordero.   UNDER 79.5.
Cubs 79 
Diamondbacks 75.5 -- this just looks like a bad team top to bottom.   UNDER 75.5.
Giants 73.5
Marlins 72.5 -- good young rotation.   Yes, it's tough in the best division in baseball, but I"m going to say OVER 72.5.
Tigers 68
Rangers 67.5 -- my 2021 hot take is that this is the worst team in baseball, or at least the worst one that doesn't play at the junction of three major American rivers.   UNDER 67.5.
Orioles 63.5 -- I'll put on the orange tinted glasses and say OVER 63.5.
Rockies 62.5
Pirates 58

So my recommended plays are:   Padres OVER 93.5, A's UNDER 86.5, Nationals UNDER 84.5, Angels OVER 83, Red Sox UNDER 79.5, Diamondbacks UNDER 75.5, Marlins OVER 72.5, Rangers UNDERR 67.5, Orioles OVER 63.5.

 

So how would I have done?

Padres OVER 93.5... I would have LOST
A's UNDER 86.5... still pending.  They would have to win 2 games vs Houston this weekend to make me a loser
Nationals UNDER 84.5 ... easy WIN
Angels OVER 83 -- LOST
Red Sox UNDER 79.5  -- LOST
Diamondbacks UNDER 75.5 -- WON
Marlins over 72.5 -- LOST
Rangers UNDER 67.5 -- WON
Orioles over 63.5 -- LOST

So right now I would be 3-5.   If Oakland loses at least 2 of 3 vs Houston I would have been 4-5.  Not a very good showing on my part, glad I didn't actually make the bets.

 

Teams that were heavily overestimated by the preseason line:

Padres -- line was 93.5, Padres have 78 wins with 3 games left
Mets -- line  was 90, Mets have 76 wins with 3 games left
Twins -- line was 89.5, Twins have 71 wins with 3 games left
Nationals --  line was 89.5, Nats have 65 wins with 3 left
Cubs -- line was 79, Cubs have 69 with 3 games left
Dbacks -- line was 75.5, Dbacks have 50 with 3 games left
Orioles -- line was 63.5, Orioles have 52 with 3 games left
 

Teams that were heavily underestimated:

Brewers:  line was 83.5, Brewers have 94 with 3 games left
Red Sox:  line was 79.5, Red Sox have 89 with 3 games left
Giants -- line was 73.5, Giants have 105 with 3 games left
Tigers -- line was 68, Tigers have 76 with 3 games left
Rockies -- line was 62.5, Rockies have 73 with 3 games left vs Arizona

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/1/2021 at 12:23 PM, ChrisP said:

Nicely done. I'd be tempted to take the top 3 teams and go under and the bottom 3 for the over...just because.

If you had done that:

under 103.5 Dodgers -- they are at 103 with 3 games left, so likely a loss
under 97.5  Yankees WIN
under 93.5 Padres WIN
over 63.5 Orioles LOSS
over 62.5 Rockies WIN
over 59 Pirates -- they are at 58 with 3 games left so win, loss, or tie is possible

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Posts

    • Thanks for the detailed explanation of all of the issues.  Sounds like a mess.
    • Yeah the amenities are pretty outdated at the yard and they seem to do nothing year over year to improve them. The touchscreens have been banged on to death to the point they barely function, so you can't accurately fill out your order at the kiosks, and they don't have a way for the people behind the counter to ring you up at many of the food places. The sound is low to non-existent in certain sections of the club level, like around 218. Seems like there should be speakers that reach there but they might have been damaged by rain, etc. and they are too lazy to fix them. If you go to a game that's even slightly busy, you will wait forever to get into the bathroom, and the sink will be an absolute mess with no soap or paper towels. It's even worse on the club level where they have one sink that's right by the door. Nearby businesses don't care, either. The Hilton parking garage reeks of decay, pot and human waste. They don't turn on the air circulation fans, even if cars are waiting for an hour and a half to exit from P3, filling up the air with carbon monoxide. They only let you enter the stadium with one 20 oz bottle of water. It's so expensive to buy a drink or water in the stadium, but with all the salty food, 20 oz of water isn't enough, especially on a hot day. Vegetarian food options are poor to none, other than things like chips, fries, hot pretzels and the occasional pizza. Vida Taco is better, but at an inconvenient location for many seats. The doors on the club level are not accessible. They're anti-accessible. Big, heavy doors you have to go through to get to/from the escalators, and big, heavy doors to get to your seats, none of them automatic (or even with the option to be automatic with a button press). Makes it hard to carry food out to your seats even if not handicapped. The furniture in the lounges on the club level seem designed to allow as few people as possible to sit down. Not great when we have so many rain delays during the season. Should put more, smaller chairs in and allow more of the club level ticket holders to have a seat while waiting for thunderstorms to pass. They keep a lot of the entrance/exit gates closed except for playoff/sellout games, which means people have to slowly "mooooo" all the way down Eutaw St to get to parking. They are too cheap to staff all the gates, so they make people exit by the warehouse, even though it would be a lot more convenient for many fans to open all the gates. Taking Light Rail would be super convenient, except that if there's at least 20k fans in attendance, it's common to have to wait 90-120 minutes to be able to board a non-full train heading toward Glen Burnie. A few trains might come by, but they are already full, or fill up fast when folks walk up to the Convention Center stop to pre-empt the folks trying to board at Camden Station. None of the garages in the area are set up to require pre-payment on entry (reservation, or give them your card / digital payment at the entrance till). If they were, emptying out the garage would be very quick, as they wouldn't need to ticket anyone on the way out: if you can't get in without paying, you can always just leave without having to stop and scan your phone or put a ticket in the machine. They shut down the Sports Legends Museum at Camden Station in 2015 because the Maryland Stadium Authority was too greedy. That place was a fun distraction if you were in the area when a game wasn't about to start, like if you show up super early on Opening Day or a playoff day. Superbook's restaurant on Eutaw is a huge downgrade from Dempsey's in terms of menu and service quality. Dempsey's used to be well-staffed, you could reserve a table online, and they had all kinds of great selection for every diet. Superbook seems like just another bar serving the same swill that the rest of the park serves, with extremely minimal and low-quality food. For that matter, most of the food at the stadium is very low quality these days. A lot of things we used to love are made to a lower standard now if they are served at all. These are gripes about the stadium and the area that haven't changed my entire adult life. Going to an O's game requires one to tolerate many small inconveniences and several major inconveniences, any number of which could easily be fixed by the relevant authorities if they gave a damn about the people who pay to come see the team play. You would think a mid-market team would be able to afford to invest in the fan experience. You would think the city and partnering organizations like garages, the Stadium Authority and MTA would at least try to do their part to make the experience enjoyable and free of kinks. You would think they would put some thought into handling the "growing pains" of the fanbase due to recent renewed interest after the dark years. Instead, all we get is the same indifference and the same annoyances year in and year out. The whole area is overdue for a revamp. Not sure if $600 mil will get it done, but at least it's a start. Hopefully they can start to patch up some of the many holes in the fan experience. If you're not going to invest in Burnes, at least make it so paying customers have an easier, more enjoyable time getting to/from the stadium and having some food while we're there.
    • Elias has only been in rebuild mode with the O's so there's not much to speculate on there.  Houston, where he spent his formative years, doesn't seem to like to be on the hook for more than a couple of big long-term contracts at any given time.  I can see that as being Elias' choice as well, albeit with a lower overall cost - Houston runs a big payroll.  But it's all guesswork.  I really don't know. If Elias takes the 2025 payroll to $150 million it will creep up to $200 million or so by 2028 just from keeping the core together.  That's where I start to wonder about sustainability due to market size, economic forces, etc., etc., etc... If it were up to me, I would add a couple of free agents this offseason even if the contracts were longer than ideal and be conservative about extensions elsewhere until the prospects establish themselves a little better.  I think there's a competitive opportunity that the team is already into that's worth exploiting. I think ownership is very happy to have Elias on board and they're not inclined to force him to do anything.  I also think Rubenstein's demonstrated business prowess is great enough to assume that he has had plenty enough time to come to a mutual understanding with Elias as to goals.
    • We need a RH O’hearn…in addition to Westburg. At least 3 batters that will push up the pitch count and cause damage in the top 5 of the lineup.
    • Boy,  that Jackson Merrill is a good young player that is playing his best ball down the season stretch and in the playoffs.   He's only 21.  I guess some young guys are able to play up to the pressure.   Who could have guessed that?
    • I’m aware.   You are arguing something im Not.
    • What agreement? The agreement you are talking about happened as a result of the move.  The MASN agreement would not have existed if Angelos had gone to court to block the move.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...