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Fangraphs Playoffs Odds Tracker 2021

Aristotelian

By Aristotelian
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TommyPickles Major Leaguer

TommyPickles

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Posted

When I heard they had updated our playoff odds from 0.0% to 0.2%, it got me thinking. How many games in a row would the O's have to win right now, before I started seriously believing they could make the playoffs?

I'm going to say 14.

If they rattle off 10 in a row to start the season, believe me, I'll be thrilled. But I think pragmatism would still win out. It's a long season, they're going to be trading guys at the deadline, this rotation will wear out, etc.

After about 14 straight wins, though, I'd start to think: Why Not?

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Aglets Hangout Grand Counsel

Aglets

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Posted
26 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

When I heard they had updated our playoff odds from 0.0% to 0.2%, it got me thinking. How many games in a row would the O's have to win right now, before I started seriously believing they could make the playoffs?

I'm going to say 14.

If they rattle off 10 in a row to start the season, believe me, I'll be thrilled. But I think pragmatism would still win out. It's a long season, they're going to be trading guys at the deadline, this rotation will wear out, etc.

After about 14 straight wins, though, I'd start to think: Why Not?

If we sweep the Yankees i'll probably be re-thinking some things.  I don't think Boston is very good.

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foxfield Hangout Grand Counsel

foxfield

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17 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Is this before or after Sunday's win?

I'm sure it's before.  I'm certain after Sunday's win the O's are a virtual lock for the Division.

 

Seriously, what we have learned so far, is that there is a pretty good chance that the Redsox projections at only being the 19th worst team in MLB are grossly over rated.

The Orioles as the 29th worst.  Well, we are definitely better than the Pirates.

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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22 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Seriously, what we have learned so far, is that there is a pretty good chance that the Redsox projections at only being the 19th worst team in MLB are grossly over rated.

The Orioles as the 29th worst.  Well, we are definitely better than the Pirates.

I am ready to pencil them in ahead of the Rockies too. There is some bad juju on that team and they are going to get beaten up in a tough NL West.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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4 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

When I heard they had updated our playoff odds from 0.0% to 0.2%, it got me thinking. How many games in a row would the O's have to win right now, before I started seriously believing they could make the playoffs?

I'm going to say 14.

If they rattle off 10 in a row to start the season, believe me, I'll be thrilled. But I think pragmatism would still win out. It's a long season, they're going to be trading guys at the deadline, this rotation will wear out, etc.

After about 14 straight wins, though, I'd start to think: Why Not?

Fun topic.  I think your number is about right.  I guess it would depend somewhat on how they’re winning.    Consistently good pitching might get me on board a little quicker than some hot games with the bats.   

FWIW, the O’s haven’t won 8 games in a row since 2005, and they haven’t won more consecutive games than that since 1999 (13).    
 

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HelenaEngineer Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

HelenaEngineer

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Boston has dropped from 38,9% to 25.5% - so they are still considered 255 times more likely than the Orioles to make the playoffs who currently show 0.1% on Fangraphs. I wouldn't put money on either, but I would take a 1000:1 payoff on the Orioles way before a 3:1 payoff on the Red Sox if I were going to bet.

 

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Moshagge3 Hangout Grand Counsel

Moshagge3

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I think people are burying the Red Sox a bit prematurely. They have Rodriguez coming back to their rotation soon, and eventually Sale. There are good reasons to question whether those guys will the same pitchers they were pre-injury, but if they are effective, that's a pretty good rotation given how Eovaldi and Houck were throwing. The one guy the Orioles teed off on was a very expensive lottery ticket who could be off the roster by May.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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31 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

I think people are burying the Red Sox a bit prematurely. They have Rodriguez coming back to their rotation soon, and eventually Sale. There are good reasons to question whether those guys will the same pitchers they were pre-injury, but if they are effective, that's a pretty good rotation given how Eovaldi and Houck were throwing. The one guy the Orioles teed off on was a very expensive lottery ticket who could be off the roster by May.

I still don't think their pen is very good.   And there lineup is not what it used to be.   Replacing guys like Betts, Benintendi, and Moreland with Renfroe, Franchy, Kiki, Marwin, and Dalbec.   JD Martinez is in a bit of a decline.

Nick Pivetta is starting tonight.   Martin Perez tomorrow.   So in a perfect world with no injuries and EdRod and Sale coming bac and being what they could be, their best rotation is Sale/Eovaldi/EdRod/Houck/Perez.   Guess that's solid.   But I'm skeptical on Sale's return to form, both when it happens and how good he will be.

I don't think they are a .500 team.

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