Cesar Valdez 2021

[Just Regular]

It looks like the End of Game role from September is sticking early...curious how folks like that deployment?   I have one roto team with him where I like it VERY much in that vein!

But last night, 1-0 game 5th inning, I also had the feeling that Valdez is who should have been going at the top of the Yankees lineup the third time in an important spot.

Whatever usage pattern, he's fun to watch right now.

 

[Sports Guy]

I think we are getting ahead of ourselves on how good Valdez is.  It’s possible that he is a guy who has just slipped through the cracks or whatever but he’s “old” and has very little ML success.  Those guys don’t usually turn out to be anything special.  Not that it can’t happen but you don’t want to make a living betting on them, that’s for sure.

That being said, he is pitching well right now and at the moment, he is showing himself to be reliable.  Since that is the case, I would rather see him in high leverage situations until he shows he shouldn’t be in those situations.  I agree that bringing him last night in that situation would have made a lot more sense than bringing in a guy who just had a kid (was he getting good sleep for those few days?) and hadn’t pitched in a week.

[Aristotelian]

My man Cesar got my gameball last night. Yes, he gave up a single to allow an unearned run in the new format, but he went head to head with Chapman and got 7 outs in the late innings without an earned run. Got some big K's when needed most. I remember when he struck out the side vs the Yankees last year. So far he has the makings of a real Yankee killer. Just love to watch this guy pitch. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

My man Cesar got my gameball last night. Yes, he gave up a single to allow an unearned run in the new format, but he went head to head with Chapman and got 7 outs in the late innings without an earned run. Got some big K's when needed most. I remember when he struck out the side vs the Yankees last year. So far he has the makings of a real Yankee killer. Just love to watch this guy pitch. 

One of my favorite pitchers for the Orioles over the last 10 years or so was Koji.  He just came in, threw strikes, missed bats and got outs.  I really hated to see him go.

Valdez could be a guy like that.  We will see if he can maintain something even close to what he is doing since he came up last year but if he can, he is going to be fun to watch even if he isn’t lighting up the radar gun.

[glenn__davis]

I don't know if he can sustain it or not, all I can think about is how furious I would be if it were the Orioles up there flailing away at the slop he throws (and I mean that in the most complementary of ways to him).

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, glenn__davis said:

I don't know if he can sustain it or not, all I can think about is how furious I would be if it were the Orioles up there flailing away at the slop he throws (and I mean that in the most complementary of ways to him).

Yep..it looks like you should crush the ball.  The thing is, everyone is so geared up to hitting 95+ nowadays.  He is one of the most unique pitchers in the sport right now.  
 

The question is, as more teams see him and the sample size increases, can you sustain it.

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

One of my favorite pitchers for the Orioles over the last 10 years or so was Koji.  He just came in, threw strikes, missed bats and got outs.  I really hated to see him go.

Valdez could be a guy like that.  We will see if he can maintain something even close to what he is doing so far since he came up last year but if he can, he is going to be fun to watch even if he isn’t lighting up the radar gun.

He reminds me of a good knuckleballer, which we really haven't had in my memory. He uses his changeup the same way. Never seen anything like it.

[Just Regular]

I looked up his Savant stuff during the long appearance last night, and he was a normal mix guy when he got his 7.00 ERA in 2010, and was only throwing the changeup about half the time when he got his 7.00 ERA in 2017.    So I don't think his long term track record has anything to do with who he is now.  Another blind spot for them there algorithms that think Chris Sale is a 3-win favorite over Adley Rutschman this year!

The low walk rates in 2019 as a full time starter give me confidence he'll throw strikes with it, so it's just a question of do the HR's every 5th or 6th batter ever arrive?   It could be 20 innings, but if it is 100 that could get us close to next year's wildcard game.

Palmer had specific praise for Higashioka swinging soft and pinging it to right, which I am sure some hitters could do but I think in today's game guys who curate that kind of skill are more backup catchers than bats potent enough for everyday jobs.

I do still think one longer outing per series might be wise deployment, and will be extra worried when Kyle Seager sees him the second night in a row, but he's earned the opportunity.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

He reminds me of a good knuckleballer, which we really haven't had in my memory. He uses his changeup the same way. Never seen anything like it.

There have been a few guys like him.   Doug Jones comes immediately to mind.   

[bobmc]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

I don't know if he can sustain it or not, all I can think about is how furious I would be if it were the Orioles up there flailing away at the slop he throws (and I mean that in the most complementary of ways to him).

From a Yankee fan perspective:

 

[Just Regular]

I thought of Hoffman - Savant has his end of career 2008-2010 pitch distributions, and he was about 25% change across those 3 years.

In Jones' era, fastballs (albeit, slower ones) were more heavily used.    

It is baseball magic that you could strain an argument that Rutschman and Valdez might both have ~8 good years to go from here.  Jones was 30 in his first full season, and pitched full seasons until he was 43.

[maybenxtyr]

I was concerned about him pitching as long as he had to last night in a game where Means pitched. I know there are differences between them, but a change up as a change up when it is a featured pitch.

[BRobinsonfan]

I know it's an incredibly small sample size - but I'm a sucker for these kinds of stories.  Journeyman pitcher suddenly learns to pitch at age 35?  I know he'll come back to earth at some point... but I'll be pulling for him all the way.  

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

There have been a few guys like him.   Doug Jones comes immediately to mind.   

Jones did not throw hard and had a great changeup, but didn't he still have a FB? Would he really throw 80% changeups? 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Jones did not throw hard and had a great changeup, but didn't he still have a FB? Would he really throw 80% changeups? 

Honestly, I don’t remember, but I doubt it.   To be honest, I didn’t realize Valdez’s usage was that high.   Last year he was at 83%, next highest (10+ IP) was 53%.    So yeah, he’s really unique.