How long do the O’s need to be bad

[kidrock]

It seems like that the only possible way that the O’s (or most teams for that matter) can compete is by building an elite farm system.  Given how hard and how slow that process is, I wanted to ask the O’s experts on here a few simple question for discussion:  

1. how long would you estimate that it takes for a team to go from a mediocre/poor farm system, to a system that has produced enough major league talent to win in the AL east?  Additionally, how long in your opinion does the pro club need to suck while building the farm.

2. is there a team that you would prefer that the O’s model their approach after?  Is it Tampa?  Toronto? St. Louis?  I think the Tampa model is the most brutally efficient, but I can’t see many people truly being happy with that model in the long haul (getting rid of good players while value is high, rarely spending a dollar in FA).

3. do you like the financial model of baseball as opposed to other professional leagues?  Baseball has always been my favorite sport, but it really seems to favor the larger market teams in the end.  Not that smaller market teams can’t compete, it’s just that every year it seems the larger market teams win.  I know there are some poor large market orgs, but I personally get disinterested when I see how imbalanced the competitive landscape can be at times.

 

[glenn__davis]

Good questions that have been debated on here quite a bit.  I'd say the following:

1.  Too many other variables to put into a true timeframe here.  Can of Corn and Sports Guy here kind of lead the charge that it shouldn't take 3-4 years of total MLB suckage to build a good system.  I tend to agree with them.  But you also have to take into account the talent doing the scouting and player selection, player development, etc.  I think those things are more important than tanking in MLB.  Not to mention your investment and return in international talent.  Good organizations find a way to have a good MLB team along with a good system.

2.  For some reason I've always seen the Cardinals as a parallel to Baltimore.  Not really sure why.  Maybe it's because we came from there.  Maybe because we're both birds.  Who knows.  Ideally I'm not a fan of the Tampa model.  Don't like the idea of continuously getting rid of good players.  If that's what it takes to win then I get it, and they've been successful with it, but I don't think that should be the case with Baltimore.  Be smart financially, but we shouldn't need to be misers.

3.  The economic landscape wouldn't be nearly so damaging if they'd just get rid of the stupid unbalanced schedule.  For Baltimore and TB to have to have a schedule so loaded against NYY, BOS and TOR is ridiculous.  Toronto is a sleeping giant financially.

 

[Frobby]

I think the unbalanced schedule thing is a bit overrated.   Over the last 10 years the O’s are .464 vs. the AL East and .485 against everyone else.    On average they won 77.0 games per year.   Make the schedule 40 games against the AL East and 122 games against everyone else, and at those winning percentages they’d have averaged 77.7 wins.    Less than a win per year difference.   

In 2014, 2015, and 2017, the O’s did better against the AL East than they did outside the division.  
 

[wildcard]

1.  I am not sure that winning the AL East is the goal.  The goal is the win the World Series.  To do that the O's need to be consistent contenders.   Be in the playoffs year after year.   I think we will see this off season the O's  flip the switch  and  some quality short term contract  FAs signed along with the arrival of Adley and the development of the pitching staff.  That will be the beginning for the next window.  I think they will be serious contenders by 2023.

2.  A modified version of the Tampa model is about the only one I see working for the O's.   They are a smallish market team.   Don't have the revenue to compete for the high dollar FAs.  I don't much care for giving a 29-30 year old players a 5 year contract anyway.  I hope O's ownership and management has learned that is not the way to go. The engine is the farm system.   Fueled by the draft and international signings.  That is the Tampa model.  I have faith in the O's ability to develop pitchers and position players through their improved staff and methods.  Looking at last years FAs there were quite a few good players that were signed to 1 or 2 year contracts to fill holes on a short term basis.  The Os modification is that Baltimore can handle a higher  overall  payroll than Tampa.  

3.  I agree that the current MLB structure is not fair to smaller teams.  The structure is not going to change in any meaningful way.  That is why smart management of small market teams is required beat the system.  That is what the Tampa system is all about.

[Aristotelian]

Hopefully less than 14 years. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

1.  I am not sure that winning the AL East is the goal.  The goal is the win the World Series.  To do that the O's need to be consistent contenders.   Be in the playoffs year after year.   

Funny, that’s not how the Royals did it.  And the Giants won three World Series in 2010, 2012, 2014 without having been in the playoffs the previous year.  

There’s lots of ways to win a World Series.   

I don’t disagree with you about the best path for the Orioles, though.  

 

[OriolesMagic83]

Until the entire farm system is 16 and 17 year old Dominicans.  Imagine the untapped potential!

[LTO's]

There is no true parallel for any of the teams you have listed. The Orioles have not had a meaningful int'l signing class ever. The only impact prospect they signed overseas, they traded for a rental reliever they didn't even sign the following year.  They are just now catching up to the rest of the league in terms of signing players. After that it's another 5+ years for them to reach the big leagues. 

Like him or not, there is some wisdom in Keith Law's take on the Orioles farm. I think ultimately he is wrong in his assessment of the minor league value the Orioles currently have, but the Orioles for decades neglected an area that accounts for 30% of big league players. You cannot turn around a 120 loss team with a bottom 5 farm in baseball in 3 years while having NO international prospects of note overseas and hardly any elite ML talent. That's just a fantasy. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

1.  I am not sure that winning the AL East is the goal.  The goal is the win the World Series.  To do that the O's need to be consistent contenders.   Be in the playoffs year after year.   I think we will see this off season the O's  flip the switch  and  some quality short term contract  FAs signed along with the arrival of Adley and the development of the pitching staff.  That will be the beginning for the next window.  I think they will be serious contenders by 2023.

2.  A modified version of the Tampa model is about the only one I see working for the O's.   They are a smallish market team.   Don't have the revenue to compete for the high dollar FAs.  I don't much care for giving a 29-30 year old players a 5 year contract anyway.  I hope O's ownership and management has learned that is not the way to go. The engine is the farm system.   Fueled by the draft and international signings.  That is the Tampa model.  I have faith in the O's ability to develop pitchers and position players through their improved staff and methods.  Looking at last years FAs there were quite a few good players that were signed to 1 or 2 year contracts to fill holes on a short term basis.  The Os modification is that Baltimore can handle a higher  overall  payroll than Tampa.  

3.  I agree that the current MLB structure is not fair to smaller teams.  The structure is not going to change in any meaningful way.  That is why smart management of small market teams is required beat the system.  That is what the Tampa system is all about.

The modification I would like to see to the Tampa model, would be that the O's would sign young stars/top prospects to under market deals and keep them for the most part instead of trading them for more prospects. 

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The modification I would like to see to the Tampa model, would be that the O's would sign young stars/top prospects to under market deals and keep them for the most part instead of trading them for more prospects. 

Tampa does this tho they are very selective.  They signed Lowe last year.  They have signed Longoria and Archer in the past and thats just off the top of my head I am sure there are more.

[Moose Milligan]

They've been pretty bad my entire life.  So I guess that the answer here is: ∞ 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

They've been pretty bad my entire life.  So I guess that the answer here is: ∞ 

(As long as it doesn't take more than a decade this time around.)

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

5 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Good questions that have been debated on here quite a bit.  I'd say the following:

1.  Too many other variables to put into a true timeframe here.  Can of Corn and Sports Guy here kind of lead the charge that it shouldn't take 3-4 years of total MLB suckage to build a good system.  I tend to agree with them.  But you also have to take into account the talent doing the scouting and player selection, player development, etc.  I think those things are more important than tanking in MLB.  Not to mention your investment and return in international talent.  Good organizations find a way to have a good MLB team along with a good system.

2.  For some reason I've always seen the Cardinals as a parallel to Baltimore.  Not really sure why.  Maybe it's because we came from there.  Maybe because we're both birds.  Who knows.  Ideally I'm not a fan of the Tampa model.  Don't like the idea of continuously getting rid of good players.  If that's what it takes to win then I get it, and they've been successful with it, but I don't think that should be the case with Baltimore.  Be smart financially, but we shouldn't need to be misers.

3.  The economic landscape wouldn't be nearly so damaging if they'd just get rid of the stupid unbalanced schedule.  For Baltimore and TB to have to have a schedule so loaded against NYY, BOS and TOR is ridiculous.  Toronto is a sleeping giant financially.

 

I agree. St. Louis and Baltimore are similar in a lot of ways. I do not see the O's needing to do the Rays' approach. The team can support a moderate payroll and retain their key stars, while having a flow of farm system talent to surround them. Camden Yards gets filled when there's a good team on the field. It's just only happened a few times in the last quarter century.

The unbalanced schedule doesn't really bother me much in a league with two wildcard spots. Tampa has proven it can compete consistently in the division. The O's problems have less to do with the purse of the Yanks/Sox/Jays and more to do with how poorly they've been run for a long time. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

I am really hoping that in the next year or two, when alot of the prospects are up, ownership will spring for the "holes", like some of the infield positions 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

4 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I am really hoping that in the next year or two, when alot of the prospects are up, ownership will spring for the "holes", like some of the infield positions 

The upcoming FA class is loaded. It would be interesting to see if they maybe pounce for someone. I'm not sure if the O's have a true MLB SS on the farm, and this FA class is as plentiful with SS-stars as there has ever been.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/04/2021-22-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings-2.html