How long do the O’s need to be bad

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, survivedc said:

I’m not sure anyone is asking for pennant contention in 4 years, people just want a team that will sniff .500 after 4 years of losing.

Here's the thing, though, we currently are "sniffing .500." This team is 8-10, and was 8-9 prior to yesterday's loss. They could certainly end up winning less than 70 games yet again, but it seems a bit odd to label them as not even "sniffing .500" when they're doing it right now, as we speak.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Here's the thing, though, we currently are "sniffing .500." This team is 8-10, and was 8-9 prior to yesterday's loss. They could certainly end up winning less than 70 games yet again, but it seems a bit odd to label them as not even "sniffing .500" when they're doing it right now, as we speak.

I didn’t label them as anything. I said what people want the team to be. Also ftr, 4 years of losing would include this year. Next year is the .500 target.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, survivedc said:

I didn’t label them as anything. I said what people want the team to be. Also ftr, 4 years of losing would include this year. Next year is the .500 target.

My apologies if I misrepresented your individual position. Just trying to point out that in the context of this thread "how long do they need to be bad" and the general tone and tenor of responses to their current play that they are actually middle of the pack-ish right now. 

[SteveA]

13 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

My apologies if I misrepresented your individual position. Just trying to point out that in the context of this thread "how long do they need to be bad" and the general tone and tenor of responses to their current play that they are actually middle of the pack-ish right now. 

Depends on how you define "middle of the pack-ish".   Of 29 other teams in baseball, only 6 have a worse record than us (NYY, Det, Minn, Hou, Wash, Colo).

On the other hand, we are only 2 games off the second wildcard spot.

[DrungoHazewood]

Without running the numbers, I'd guess that there's well over a 90% chance that both a .350 team and a .650 would have a run of 8-10 at some point in the season.  Just another way of stating that April records are essentially meaningless.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Without running the numbers, I'd guess that there's well over a 90% chance that both a .350 team and a .650 would have a run of 8-10 at some point in the season.  Just another way of stating that April records are essentially meaningless.

They're meaningless, unless we're talking about the Yankees. 

[eddie83]

23 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

It is going to be a long couple weeks until we start to get a view of if the Big Three can lay waste to the Eastern League.   Now is like the movie where you are on the 2nd trailer, and the feature's still 20 minutes away.    We'll be in rough shape if Rutschman Can't Play, etc, but I think we'll be okay there.

April-wise, I think the good early Means/Mullins/Mancini returns are more encouraging than anything bad that's happened yet.

I can't put Matt Harvey in the good list, except for hoping he helps build the brand for some better version of him on next year's roster.

SSS but Mountcastle struggling concerns me more than Mullins being a nice story. 

[NCRaven]

3 hours ago, eddie83 said:

SSS but Mountcastle struggling concerns me more than Mullins being a nice story. 

We may already be seeing Mullins regress to his career norms, anyway.  You knew he wasn't going to hit .400+ forever, and we should have doubted he'd hit .300 for very long.  I expect him to continue sinking.  Glad that Hays can handle center when Santander returns.

[sportsfan8703]

I still think it’s 2023 until we can realistically contend for .500. The SP is still just stop gaps. It looks the lost milb season is hurting us a bit with the guys in AAA now. 
 

2021:

Zimmerman - already on the roster. 
Kremer - should be back up after the 10 days after being sent down. 
Akin - looks like they want to get him on track in AAA. 
Lowther - same as Akin. 
Baumann and Alex Wells - behind the top 3 in terms of development. 
 

2022:

Hopefully we have a rotation of Means and four of Zimmerman/Kremer/Akin/Lowther/Baumann/Alex Wells. 
Hall and GRod - maybe they get their feet wet in Aug/Sept. 

It’s looking like stop gaps until these guys get some innings in milb AAA games. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I still think it’s 2023 until we can realistically contend for .500. The SP is still just stop gaps. It looks the lost milb season is hurting us a bit with the guys in AAA now. 
 

2021:

Zimmerman - already on the roster. 
Kremer - should be back up after the 10 days after being sent down. 
Akin - looks like they want to get him on track in AAA. 
Lowther - same as Akin. 
Baumann and Alex Wells - behind the top 3 in terms of development. 
 

2022:

Hopefully we have a rotation of Means and four of Zimmerman/Kremer/Akin/Lowther/Baumann/Alex Wells. 
Hall and GRod - maybe they get their feet wet in Aug/Sept. 

It’s looking like stop gaps until these guys get some innings in milb AAA games. 

Yes, realistically, since we know they won't spend any money and will game the service time of anything approaching an actual prospect.

But I'm waiting for that to get pushed back yet another year after the 2022 season is compromised by labor uncertainty.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I still think it’s 2023 until we can realistically contend for .500. The SP is still just stop gaps. It looks the lost milb season is hurting us a bit with the guys in AAA now. 
 

2021:

Zimmerman - already on the roster. 
Kremer - should be back up after the 10 days after being sent down. 
Akin - looks like they want to get him on track in AAA. 
Lowther - same as Akin. 
Baumann and Alex Wells - behind the top 3 in terms of development. 
 

2022:

Hopefully we have a rotation of Means and four of Zimmerman/Kremer/Akin/Lowther/Baumann/Alex Wells. 
Hall and GRod - maybe they get their feet wet in Aug/Sept. 

It’s looking like stop gaps until these guys get some innings in milb AAA games. 

I am not sure who are stopgaps and who have real future in the O's rotation.  That is one of the key things to find out this season.

I am interested to see where GRod begins the season.  If its AA then I could see him doing well in AA and AAA in 2021.  That would make him ready to start the season in 2022 in the majors (or maybe two weeks into 2022)

[NCRaven]

On 4/23/2021 at 2:42 PM, NCRaven said:

We may already be seeing Mullins regress to his career norms, anyway.  You knew he wasn't going to hit .400+ forever, and we should have doubted he'd hit .300 for very long.  I expect him to continue sinking.  Glad that Hays can handle center when Santander returns.

Three days later, I look like an idiot.  Thanks Cedric!