Means scratched from Sundays start vs Yankees

[Can_of_corn]

25 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You can be sure they aren't "guessing."

What's your innings target for Means this season?

I don't think he's going to break 200 even if they take away any restrictions.

I don't know of any concrete evidence that suggests having him pitch 200 innings would increase his injury risk.

I think they are erring on the side of caution and it won't make any difference.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, sevastras said:

I speculated with the extra rest last time and then found out he was on a pitch limit, it makes me question what they are doing. My speculation is they are babying him as much as possible leading to trading to the deadline but from a gm prospective,  it makes you wonder if his arm/shoulder might be a bit dead after the no hitter. I will tell you the no hitter he threw, those curveballs were the nastiest he has ever throw and this past game he was effectively not nasty. 

Obviously if an issue is present that changes things.  I'm not suggesting throwing him out there if he isn't healthy.

[scOtt]

Konner Wade pitched 6 shutout innings (no walks) for the Tides Thursday, which would put him on 4 days rest for Tuesday.

Spenser Watkins pitched 4 innings, 1 run, on Wednesday...

 

 

 

Maybe they want to try somebody new on Tuesday...

 

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think he's going to break 200 even if they take away any restrictions.

I don't know of any concrete evidence that suggests having him pitch 200 innings would increase his injury risk.

I think they are erring on the side of caution and it won't make any difference.

Is there anything from his performance this year that would suggest he couldn't easily pass 200 innings?

[scOtt]

Just now, Pickles said:

Is there anything from his performance this year that would suggest he couldn't easily pass 200 innings?

He's never been close to that? Even in the minors?

 

157 1/3 in 2018. Some Bowie, mostly Norfolk. Career high.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, scOtt said:

He's never been close to that? Even in the minors?

 

157 1/3 in 2018. Some Bowie, mostly Norfolk. Career high.

If you give him 33 starts this year, he's getting 200 innings.  Again, he's on pace for about 215 right now.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, scOtt said:

He's never been close to that? Even in the minors?

 

157 1/3 in 2018. Some Bowie, mostly Norfolk. Career high.

And?

[scOtt]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

And?

You were born in Missouri, right?

[rudyrooster]

Perhaps he reported to the coaches that he felt a little extra soreness.  Perhaps not.  Could be innings management.  Could be anything.  We'll probably never know.

[Pickles]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think he's going to break 200 even if they take away any restrictions.

I don't know of any concrete evidence that suggests having him pitch 200 innings would increase his injury risk.

I think they are erring on the side of caution and it won't make any difference.

I guess I should have mentioned this earlier, but not only do I think Means easily surpasses 200 innings if they just let it rip, I disagree about your other point here as well.

Is there any concrete evidence smoking causes cancer?  No, there's only the association.

The same is true of large inning spikes.  There's nothing concrete but there is association.

So, I want them to err on the side of caution.

And if it doesn't make any difference, why worry about 2-3 starts in a non-competitive year?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I guess I should have mentioned this earlier, but not only do I think Means easily surpasses 200 innings if they just let it rip, I disagree about your other point here as well.

Is there any concrete evidence smoking causes cancer?  No, there's only the association.

The same is true of large inning spikes.  There's nothing concrete but there is association.

So, I want them to err on the side of caution.

And if it doesn't make any difference, why worry about 2-3 starts in a non-competitive year?

Easily?  220 leads the league as often as not these days.  I don't see him being that guy.

What association is there?  You thinking about the debunked Verducci effect?

Means' inning are pretty much all low stress innings.  He doesn't run up high pitch counts or allow a bunch of base runners 

For the record I think they have found actual evidence about smoking and cancer, so you might want to quit if you smoke.

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Easily?  220 leads the league as often as not these days.  I don't see him being that guy.

What association is there?  You thinking about the debunked Verducci effect?

Means' inning are pretty much all low stress innings.  He doesn't run up high pitch counts or allow a bunch of base runners 

For the record I think they have found actual evidence about smoking and cancer, so you might want to quit if you smoke.

I quit a while ago.  Best thing I ever did.  Thanks for your concern though.

I'm not sure if it was called the Verducci effect, but there was pretty prominent study done ~15 years ago, which suggested that large innings spikes can lead to injury.  And then basically every team in baseball began developing their pitchers in a pretty uniform way in regards to innings counts. I concede there was nothing concrete then.  I'd be curious to know how it was "debunked."

How many times with your own eyes have you seen some pitcher- in a postseason, in a regular season, as a prospect- pitch a lot more innings than normal and have residual effects?

I think it's common sense wisdom.  Just as not smoking is.

As far as your evaluation of Means, I agree with that whole-heartedly.  "Low stress innings."  "Low pitch counts."  "Few baserunners."

Sounds exactly like a guy who is about to pitch a whole lot of innings.  Like over six per start.  Which if you run him out there every fifth day adds up to about...... 210 innings.

[Pickles]

By the way, if I thought we were going to actually win something this year I'd be willing to ride Means into the ground like a rented donkey.

But we're not, so what's the point?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, rudyrooster said:

Perhaps he reported to the coaches that he felt a little extra soreness.  Perhaps not.  Could be innings management.  Could be anything.  We'll probably never know.

This is my only major concern, I want this to be the braintrust being extra cautious instead of Means complaining this early in the season that he's got a tired or sore arm. And you're correct if Means continues to pitch every fifth day, we'll never know the real reason for this extra rest. 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think he's going to break 200 even if they take away any restrictions.

I don't know of any concrete evidence that suggests having him pitch 200 innings would increase his injury risk.

I think they are erring on the side of caution and it won't make any difference.

I expect that Elias and Sig have read and reviewed every bit of data there is on this subject, and probably developed some of their own.    I seriously doubt they are just putting their finger in the wind.   Nevertheless, the fact that Means was announced as Sunday’s starter and then pulled, then pushed to Wednesday, suggests there’s something specific going on with Means here.